Didn't his profile get removed from AVIC website for some reason? Any more updates about that?
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Damn.... How come many prominent officials are getting caught up in corruption probes and stuffs. Is it that so many have been used to graft for so long in the government?
If he's not retiring, chances are he's been moved to another project. Was like that with J-20 and J-10 as well. Researchers/engineers get taken away from or with their families to live in some black site during the more critical work phases
Remember there are
1 generation in service
1 in testing
1 in research and development
I think he's not gonna be the main lead of the 7th gen development though. More like an advisor.
Considering the age of these officials, they came of age in the 1970s and 1980s, which was the era with the largest gap in wealth and technology from the Western world, and they witnessed it firsthand. It is natural that a large number of people will lose their self-confidence and faith.
And Deng Xiaoping's economic priority policy will make more people realistic and greedy.
Xi Jinping's anti-corruption is also the price paid for that era. I hope that the Communist Party can use new digital technology to solve this problem in the future.
to better describe the tone that hes talking in i'd translate it as "the us is a master at coming up with names. look how many acronyms they got... cca, mumt..." hes being a little facetious like "lmao look at all this bullshit"(38:02) He said, US is an expert in making concepts. Observers need to work hard to remember lots of concepts. To describe one type of drones, US made CCA, Loyal Wingman, MUM-T...
So I've been lurking for a while but I made an account just to ask this. As Rick Joe's article () on August 01, 2023 said production in 2022 was about 70 and that 2023 would be about 100. The general consensus on this forum seems to be that a production rate of 100ish per year has been ongoing for at least a year now if not 2 years.
It is now 2025. Even considering that there is a lag time between production and them showing up in active duty units we should surely be seeing significantly more units with J-20s by now. Given Deino's comment quoted above was made in November 2023 a rate of 100ish units a year means in addition to the "at least 3 if not 4 more units" that should have been flying the J-20 then, by now another 3-4 units (if not more) should be flying it.
So what is the explanation? Better PLA OPSEC? Production is not as high as previously estimated? Maybe they're transitioning to WS-15 engines so they've slowed/paused production until then? Need more time to train more pilots to fly 5th gen aircraft? Units previously only partially flying J-20s now flying only J-20s?
This question was asked a few times previously in this thread but there seems to have been no response. The missing J-20s being in some units we just didn't know had switched over was more plausible then but is getting less so as time goes on. The gap between the supposed number produced and the units which are known to be actually equipped with J-20s is getting bigger and bigger. If 2023 and 2024 had production runs of 100 J-20 then we're looking at least 100 unaccounted for J-20s.
Opsec has been getting progressively tighter over the last 4-5 years. Serials are now usually scrubbed before images are posted. The only evidence we have of deliveries is when a new unit converts or when we get images of CAC’s production yard. Neither give us a sense for where total unit counts are. Just the reality of the trade these days. Just to illustrate how tight Opsec has become consider how we identified at least 3 different PLAAF J-35s during Zhuhai and had no clue they even finished development testing.
J-15T/J-15D appearing out of nowhere in squadron strength when we didn't even know they were in service yet is another example.
So what you're saying is there are a significant number of units that have converted to J-20 which we are not currently aware of due to tighter PLA OPSEC than in years past? The J-35 example does make this more plausible, I was very surprised by how fast things went from "J-35 is still in testing/development and we're not sure if the PLAAF will acquire it or just PLAN" to "PLAAF might start getting production J-35 in 2025". It seemed to just go from 0 to 60 instantly.
True the J-15T/J-15D reveal in the 2 carrier photo was very surprising for me as well. They managed to get quite a number of them in service without anybody really knowing they were ready.
You raise an important point, and as my previous speakers have already written, we haven't known anything since Zhuhai either!
It's true, we haven't known a more recent construction numbers since CB07156 posted in January 2023. Confirmed serial numbers are rare. Just to remind you, the 4th AB has been flying the J-20 since 2023, and only after Zhuhai 2024 were there clear photos leaked.
There are no photos at all of the 55th and 41st AB, nor of the unit that, at least to me, was recently converted unit, the 19th AB (although there is a photo of a J-20 next to several J-11Bs).
Furthermore, the 131st has been rumored for a long time, but still no facts are known, and I haven't heard of any other new units (except perhaps the 2nd AB).
I actually almost have the impression - but as I said, just my impression or gut feeling - that not as many units were newly formed in 2024 as in 2023, perhaps actually an indication that production is being switched to the J-20A.