J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Blitzo]

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

You are viewing things the wrong way.

The proliferation of J-20s among various theater commands with increasing numbers and units towards all strategic directions is just a natural consequence of the PLA's modernization overall rather than a specific need to have J-20s face nations with small/incapable air forces.

Because even with more J-20s being built, it's not like new J-20 units will be received to different theater commands in an equal manner. Some theater commands take higher priority than others, and going forwards it is likely some theater commands will end up having more J-20 units than others.

But at the same time, J-20 annual production does seem to now be in the 90-100+ airframe range, meaning it's basically three brigades worth of J-20s a year being built, and the PLA has five theater commands, and the geographical boundaries of theater commands also means that having sufficient dispersion of J-20 units to allow some to be closer to a given theater of potential conflict and some to be more distant (to be less vulnerable to strikes from a given strategic direction to enable rapid redeployment) is sensible.

We already have eight J-20 brigades with pictures confirmed from the latest rounds per our own records and scramble (ETC, STC, WTC have two brigades each, NTC and CTC have one brigade each), and if CAC continues with 90-100 J-20s a year for even another four years (likely to be longer), you'll end up with a situation where each theater command will average four J-20 brigades each, but in practice some likely to have a few more brigades (5-6) and some a few less (3-4).... and if three J-20 brigades (with other 4.5th gen fighter brigades and also force multiplier aircraft units) are in a "lower priority" theater command facing no particularly strong adversary and being massive roflstomp level overkill, well that becomes just a natural outcome of PLA modernization efforts, and can serve as a strategic reserve for other theater commands as well.

 

[TK3600]

Remember that the politburo members are very familiar with Graham Allison's work "Destined for War". It looks at previous power transitions and finds that of 16 recent previous instances, 12 resulted in a war.

Whilst I don't think the odds of a US-China war are that bad, I would put the possibility of an accidental war at 10-20%, and higher still if a Trump-like figure is the US President.

So it is only prudent for the Chinese Air Force to match (or overmatch) the entire USAF if there is a prolonged war of attrition for air superiority in the Western Pacific. This will deter the US from declaring war on China

Given that the US will have circa 1500 stealth fighters by 2035, we could expect the Chinese fleet to be comparable. And there is no way all of these can or need to be concentrated in the East

I also expect new airbases will have to be opened to accommodate at least some of these new aircraft. So you might as well replace 4.5Gen air superiority units in the rear, as it will be better "value of money" than standing up a new airbase.

Remember that Chinese military spending could double overnight, yet this still wouldn't reach the US spending level of 3.4% of GDP.

Also important to note 5th gen training is different. Even if at low priority areas it is good to build a stock of 5th gen pilots for attrition. Useful for high intensity fight as you said.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

So what the single engine fighter would remain in PLAAF if J-10C would get replaced with J-20 ?

I thought J-10C is a very capable fighter, not many single engine fighters are more capable than J-10C, perhaps only F-35 and the latest variant F-16. I think J-10C is very relevant fighter until ~2030

Possibly PLAAF thinking of J-35 (land version) to replace J-10C in more aggressive timeframe ?

There's no reason (yet) to assume that the PLAAF is about to phase out the J-10C.

The one unit that saw its J-10Cs replaced by J-20s also saw said J-10Cs replace another unit's J-10As.

Given the distances involved both in the Western Pacific and the Tibetan plateau, however, it makes sense for the PLAAF to focus most efforts on acquiring a long-ranged, twin-engined fighter fleet.

The latest J-10 variant, i.e. J-10C is barely 7/8 years old for the oldest airframe. The J-10B, whilst older, is barely 10 years old for the oldest airframe.

For a typical fighter jet which is flown for ~200 hours per year and with proper regular maintenance, the jet can typically last for around 30-40 years before necessitating retirement. Of course, the service lifetimes of fighter jet airframes also varies between different fighter jet types and countries.

In this case, the J-10Bs and J-10Cs should be able to serve with the PLAAF until the 2040s, if not the 2050s. This is especially true that as China continues to advance in the material science and engineering domain over the past few decades, newer variants/airframes should have longer service lifetimes than the older variants/airframes.

In the meantime, I don't think that the J-10A would last beyond the second half of the 2030s, even with the recent AESA upgrade to J-10AG. China might as well sell them to friendly countries with tight budgets (less likely), or convert them into aerial target drones for target practice and munition testing (more likely).

Of course, aggressively retiring the J-10s in favor of inducting newer J-35s and/or more capable loyal wingman UCAVs is also a possibility, but I don't see the PLAAF starting to do that until the end of this decade at-the-earliest, if not the early-2030s.

Anyways, this is going out of topic.

 

[TK3600]

The latest J-10 variant, i.e. J-10C is barely 7/8 years old for the oldest airframe. The J-10B, whilst older, is barely 10 years old for the oldest airframe.

For a typical fighter jet which is flown for ~200 hours per year and with proper regular maintenance, the jet can typically last for around 30-40 years before necessitating retirement. Of course, the service lifetimes of fighter jet airframes also varies between different fighter jet types and countries.

In this case, the J-10Bs and J-10Cs should be able to serve with the PLAAF until the 2040s, if not the 2050s. This is especially true that as China continues to advance in the material science and engineering domain over the past few decades, newer variants/airframes should have longer service lifetimes than the older variants/airframes.

In the meantime, I don't think that the J-10A would last beyond the second half of the 2030s, even with the recent AESA upgrade to J-10AG. China might as well sell them to friendly countries with tight budgets (less likely), or convert them into aerial target drones for target practice and munition testing (more likely).

Of course, aggressively retiring the J-10s in favor of inducting newer J-35s and/or more capable loyal wingman UCAVs is also a possibility, but I don't see the PLAAF starting to do that until the end of this decade, if not the early-2030s at-the-earliest.

Anyways, this is going out of topic.

People thought I was crazy to say 100+ J-20 a year. Feels good to be vindicated. I say 100+ is just a start. Expect more due to the recent factory expansion. Production rate not peaking yet. 5th gen rate only gets higher once J-35 is in.

Sorry, 5th gen is getting cabbagized. It is the new reality. I do feel pity for the well upgraded old platforms. They can still bully weaker country and still have lots of service life. A waste to throw away but I dont think J-20 production will slow down for them. Just like how many J-7 still have life left but had to retire.

Would be interesting to speculate what is the solution to these platforms but that is offtopics.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

China actually has two major frontiers and five sub-frontiers to contend with.


While the Pacific Frontier takes precedence and significance over the Tibetan Frontier, understandably (and that China can rely on Pakistan's pressure against India for the Tibetan Frontier), China definitely need all the advanced airframes that she can get across all Theater Commands, namely:

- The Eastern Theater Command facing the Taiwan Sub-frontier (dealing with Taiwan, the Ryukyus and the US);
- The Southern Theater Command facing the South China Sea Sub-frontier (dealing with the Philippines, Australia and the US);
- The Northern Theater Command facing the Northeast Asia Sub-frontier (dealing with South Korea, Japan and the US);
- The Western Theater Command facing the Aksai Chin Sub-frontier and South Tibet Sub-frontier (dealing with India); and
- The Central Theater Command, being the guardian of the capital region and the national strategic military reserve by supporting other theater commands.

And just as @Blitzo had mentioned, the growing number of the J-20s being inducted into PLAAF service every year is more of a product of the across-the-board capability upgrades for the entire PLAAF, and less about the need to deal with specific threats at specific axes.

Once again, we're approaching topic boundry limits, so I'll stop here.

 

[Deino]

That is why J-10C is produced as a stop gap between outdated J-7 and J-20. We can't just have J-20 all at once when it is few in number. But yes, J-20 will eventually station even around lower priority regions like North Korea, Nepal. If not J-20, it will be J-16 or another 5th gen type. It would be many many years down the line, let's say 10 years+.

Sorry, but I do not understand your comment concerning where the J-20 will be based since it is wrong: As ist seems, the PLAAF not only converts elite unis, but now already regular units and they do not only equip units in the ETC, but in an almost equal manner in all TCs. As such it looks at the moment that way:

ETC: 9th AB & 8th AB (and allegedly 41st AB)
STC: 5th AB & 4th AB
WTC: 111th AB & 97th AB (and allegedly 131st AB)
NTC: 1st AB (and allegedly 55th AB)
CTC: 56th AB

… and this means, the J-20 is for the PLAAF not or no longer an expensive „silver bullet“ asset but a regular multirole fighter.

 

[stannislas]

Sorry, but I do not understand your comment concerning where the J-20 will be based since it is wrong: As ist seems, the PLAAF not only converts elite unis, but now already regular units and they do not only equip units in the ETC, but in an almost equal manner in all TCs. As such it looks at the moment that way:

ETC: 9th AB & 8th AB (and allegedly 41st AB)
STC: 5th AB & 4th AB
WTC: 111th AB & 97th AB (and allegedly 131st AB)
NTC: 1st AB (and allegedly 55th AB)
CTC: 56th AB

… and this means, the J-20 is for the PLAAF not or no longer an expensive „silver bullet“ asset but a regular multirole fighter.

uhmm, how much do we know the 'multirole' side of J-20? beside of taking PL-15 for air superiority task...

 

[Deino]

uhmm, how much do we know the 'multirole' side of J-20? beside of taking PL-15 for air superiority task...

Sorry, "multirole fighter" in the meaning of different fighter-related missions ... IMO at least not yet a mulitirole type for ground-attack.

By the way, I found another image of the previously posted J-20 helmet featuring the HMDS/HMCS but this time it spots a badge on the pilot's shoulder ... any idea if just an individual patch or from a certain unit?

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

uhmm, how much do we know the 'multirole' side of J-20? beside of taking PL-15 for air superiority task...

AFAIK, the current version of the J-20 is a pure air superiority fighter - in effect, it's China's counterpart to the F-22.

The J-16 fills the strike fighter niche.

 

[stannislas]

Sorry, "multirole fighter" in the meaning of different fighter-related missions ... IMO at least not yet a mulitirole type for ground-attack.

By the way, I found another image of the previously posted J-20 helmet featuring the HMDS/HMCS but this time it spots a badge on the pilot's shoulder ... any idea if just an individual patch or from a certain unit?

View attachment 123213

Fair enough, I can't imagine what it would be like if the J-20 carried 4 rocket pods ......

But jokes aside, I can only see two types of multirole task for J-20 in the near future:
1. Carry Chinese version of AARGM-ER for SEAD task
2. J-20s commanding unmanned wingmen.

BTW, this picture looks like a shot from the movie 'Born to Fly' ...