J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Blitzo]

Finally as a late Christmas gift, I got information to confirm the first clear images showing J-20s within the 4th AB at Foshan (aka 61x5x serial numbers) and the 97th AB at Dazu (with 70x8x serial numbers) - with both spotting xx = 22.

So @scramble_nl was right again!

So up to the next units, that are rumoured to have received that type already or are said to be under conversion:

1. the 55th AB at Jining - 66x6x
2. the 41st AB at Wuyishan - 65x2x
3. the 131st AT at Luliang - 74x2x

... any more I missed?

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I assume they must have access to sufficiently good quality imagery showing the serials as well as pictures of the factory being busy, which we haven't seen.

Which again I think is a reflection of both PLA operational security and also a reasonable caution/reluctance of the civilians and wall climbers to provide pictures to us, the public.

J-16 is one exception will stay produced with new gen.

J-16 is likely to be continue production for a while yet, and in the latter stages of its production I expect it will mostly be the J-16D variant, but it will likely see a cessation in production in time as well, and will not see the same trajectory as J-20 (i.e.: I expect the last J-16 airframe to cease production a fair while before the last J-20 airframe).

 

[Atomicfrog]

J-16 is one exception will stay produced with new gen.

I know... it was in response about:

Imminent conversion expected:

2024?: 41st AB (J-11A --> J-20), 95th AB (J-11B --> J-20 or J-16), 98th AB (J-16 --> J-20), 131st AB (J-10C --> J-20)

What would happen to the aircrafts that are still very capable and powerful (J-11B, J-10B/C and J-16) that replaced with J-20 ?

I found that quite odd...

 

[antiterror13]

So what the single engine fighter would remain in PLAAF if J-10C would get replaced with J-20 ?

I thought J-10C is a very capable fighter, not many single engine fighters are more capable than J-10C, perhaps only F-35 and the latest variant F-16. I think J-10C is very relevant fighter until ~2030

Possibly PLAAF thinking of J-35 (land version) to replace J-10C in more aggressive timeframe ?

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

So what the single engine fighter would remain in PLAAF if J-10C would get replaced with J-20 ?

I thought J-10C is a very capable fighter, not many single engine fighters are more capable than J-10C, perhaps only F-35 and the latest variant F-16. I think J-10C is very relevant fighter until ~2030

Possibly PLAAF thinking of J-35 (land version) to replace J-10C in more aggressive timeframe ?

There's no reason (yet) to assume that the PLAAF is about to phase out the J-10C.

The one unit that saw its J-10Cs replaced by J-20s also saw said J-10Cs replace another unit's J-10As.

Given the distances involved both in the Western Pacific and the Tibetan plateau, however, it makes sense for the PLAAF to focus most efforts on acquiring a long-ranged, twin-engined fighter fleet.

 

[Deino]

I assume they must have access to sufficiently good quality imagery showing the serials as well as pictures of the factory being busy, which we haven't seen.

Which again I think is a reflection of both PLA operational security and also a reasonable caution/reluctance of the civilians and wall climbers to provide pictures to us, the public.
…

Indeed they have

 

[TK3600]

So what the single engine fighter would remain in PLAAF if J-10C would get replaced with J-20 ?

I thought J-10C is a very capable fighter, not many single engine fighters are more capable than J-10C, perhaps only F-35 and the latest variant F-16. I think J-10C is very relevant fighter until ~2030

Possibly PLAAF thinking of J-35 (land version) to replace J-10C in more aggressive timeframe ?

The recent video of J-20 chief designer said "The gap between 5th gen air superiority platform and 4.5 gen are too big, more number and new tactics cannot make up for it".

J-10C is mostly designed for air superiority and not that efficient for ground strike. The former role is replaced by J-20. The latter is by J-16. J-10C will be kept only for the fact there are even older planes to replace first. Once older planes are replaced, J-10C will be replaced by J-20.

 

[antiterror13]

The recent video of J-20 chief designer said "The gap between 5th gen air superiority platform and 4.5 gen are too big, more number and new tactics cannot make up for it".

J-10C is mostly designed for air superiority and not that efficient for ground strike. The former role replaced by J-20. The latter is by J-16. J-10C will be kept only for the fact there are even older planes to replace first. Once older planes are replaced, J-10C will be replaced by J-20.

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

 

[TK3600]

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

That is why J-10C is produced as a stop gap between outdated J-7 and J-20. We can't just have J-20 all at once when it is few in number. But yes, J-20 will eventually station even around lower priority regions like North Korea, Nepal. If not J-20, it will be J-16 or another 5th gen type. It would be many many years down the line, let's say 10 years+.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

Looking at J-10C deployments, we have:

Northern Theater Command (3x ABs):
-Inner Mongolia: 2nd Air Brigade
-Shandong: 34th + 36th Air Brigades

Central Theater Command (1x AB):
-Tianjin (capital defense): 72nd Air Brigade

Eastern Theater Command (1x AB):
-Guangdong (Taiwan Strait): 25th Air Brigade

Southern Theater Command (2x ABs):
-Yunnan (near Myanmar/Indochina, not SCS): 130th + 131st Air Brigades

Western Theater Command: No J-10Cs

***

If possible, it's better to have J-16s/J-20s everywhere, because in the event of a contingency in one theater, the units initially deployed elsewhere can be surged to the battlespace.

 

[AndrewS]

But surely PLAAF don't need J-20 for all borders, only in Eastern coast are crucial. J-20 is not really needed for border with Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and central Asian countries, including Afghanistan ... that suit J-10C or J-11B very well

J-20 is significantly more expensive than J-10C or J-11B

Of course ideally to station J-20 and J-16 everywhere, but resources is always limited and not wise to waste it

Remember that the politburo members are very familiar with Graham Allison's work "Destined for War". It looks at previous power transitions and finds that of 16 recent previous instances, 12 resulted in a war.

Whilst I don't think the odds of a US-China war are that bad, I would put the possibility of an accidental war at 10-20%, and higher still if a Trump-like figure is the US President.

So it is only prudent for the Chinese Air Force to match (or overmatch) the entire USAF if there is a prolonged war of attrition for air superiority in the Western Pacific. This will deter the US from declaring war on China

Given that the US will have circa 1500 stealth fighters by 2035, we could expect the Chinese fleet to be comparable. And there is no way all of these can or need to be concentrated in the East

I also expect new airbases will have to be opened to accommodate at least some of these new aircraft. So you might as well replace 4.5Gen air superiority units in the rear, as it will be better "value of money" than standing up a new airbase.

Remember that Chinese military spending could double overnight, yet this still wouldn't reach the US spending level of 3.4% of GDP.