J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

Finally as a late Christmas gift, I got information to confirm the first clear images showing J-20s within the 4th AB at Foshan (aka 61x5x serial numbers) and the 97th AB at Dazu (with 70x8x serial numbers) - with both spotting xx = 22.

So @scramble_nl was right again!

So up to the next units, that are rumoured to have received that type already or are said to be under conversion:

1. the 55th AB at Jining - 66x6x
2. the 41st AB at Wuyishan - 65x2x
3. the 131st AT at Luliang - 74x2x

... any more I missed?





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[THX 1138]

Late 2023 the Brigade started to use the J-20A...

In 2023 the Su-27/J-11s were replaced with the J-20A.

"J-20A" as in the latest iteration featuring a raised cockpit, re-designed nose, and WS-15 engines?

 

[Deino]

"J-20A" as in the latest iteration featuring a raised cockpit, re-designed nose, and WS-15 engines?

No, just the classic ones using WS-10C

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

"J-20A" as in the latest iteration featuring a raised cockpit, re-designed nose, and WS-15 engines?

Scramble.nl still uses the designation "J-20A" for the basic model J-20s. They haven't updated designations on the basis of the information that became available this year.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

Per scramble.nl, we have the following rate of conversion:

2018: 9th AB (Su-30MKK --> J-20)
2019: -
2020: 1st AB (J-11B --> J-20)
2021: 5th AB (J-10C --> J-20)
2022: 8th AB (J-10A --> J-20), 56th AB (J-10B --> J-20), 111th AB (J-11A --> J-20)
2023: 4th AB (J-11A --> J-20), 55th AB (J-11A --> J-20), 97th AB (J-7E --> J-20)

Of note, the 97th Air Brigade is the first to convert from a non-4th gen directly to the J-20.

Imminent conversion expected:

2024?: 41st AB (J-11A --> J-20), 95th AB (J-11B --> J-20 or J-16), 98th AB (J-16 --> J-20), 131st AB (J-10C --> J-20)

This suggests a steady rate of 3x brigades being converted per year, meaning ~90 J-20s delivered to first-line units. Which is in line with estimated production.

If that rate is maintained throughout the decade, we'll be looking at 27x Air Brigades and 810 first-line J-20s by January 2030.

 

[antiterror13]

Per scramble.nl, we have the following rate of conversion:

2018: 9th AB (Su-30MKK --> J-20)
2019: -
2020: 1st AB (J-11B --> J-20)
2021: 5th AB (J-10C --> J-20)
2022: 8th AB (J-10A --> J-20), 56th AB (J-10B --> J-20), 111th AB (J-11A --> J-20)
2023: 4th AB (J-11A --> J-20), 55th AB (J-11A --> J-20), 97th AB (J-7E --> J-20)

Of note, the 97th Air Brigade is the first to convert from a non-4th gen directly to the J-20.

Imminent conversion expected:

2024?: 41st AB (J-11A --> J-20), 95th AB (J-11B --> J-20 or J-16), 98th AB (J-16 --> J-20), 131st AB (J-10C --> J-20)

This suggests a steady rate of 3x brigades being converted per year, meaning ~90 J-20s delivered to first-line units. Which is in line with estimated production.

If that rate is maintained throughout the decade, we'll be looking at 27x Air Brigades and 810 first-line J-20s by January 2030.

What would happen to the aircrafts that are still very capable and powerful (J-11B, J-10B/C and J-16) that replaced with J-20 ?

 

[gelgoog]

What would happen to the aircrafts that are still very capable and powerful (J-11B, J-10B/C and J-16) that replaced with J-20 ?

I would assume some aircraft would be passed down to air units not in frontline positions, while others would be sent into storage.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

What would happen to the aircrafts that are still very capable and powerful (J-11B, J-10B/C and J-16) that replaced with J-20 ?

The more modern are sent to other units with older types.

Thus, the 5th Air Brigade's J-10Cs went to the 130th Air Brigade and replaced that unit's J-10As. Presumably, so will the 131st Air Brigade's J-10Cs, as well as the 98th Air Brigade's J-16s.

For the older 4th gens, however, most appear to be either retired or sent to training units: J-10As, J-11As, J-11Bs that haven't received the AESA upgrade, and even J-10Bs with PESAs.

The PLAAF seems to be transitioning rather aggressively to a force structure fielding only a few types, namely:

-J-10Cs (7x brigades, apparently no longer produced)
-J-11Bs with the AESA upgrade (3-4x brigades)
-J-16s, including the Growler-like J-16Ds (main multirole platform)
-J-20s, including in the near future improved J-20As (main A2A platform)

These aircraft all have in common (1) a powerful AESA radar, (2) datalink and, save for the J-10C, (3) long range.

 

[Atomicfrog]

What would happen to the aircrafts that are still very capable and powerful (J-11B, J-10B/C and J-16) that replaced with J-20 ?

Would find it strange to do multiple transitions from old to less old to newer types in a couple of years but it could happen.

Some of these jets have a lot of hours left to fly but the production rates is strong enough to just phase them off if they want. Could be mothballed for spares/replacement chassis for the remaining units using them.

I find the J-16s quite hard to replace with J-20s, they don't share the same job.

 

[TK3600]

Would find it strange to do multiple transitions from old to less old to newer types in a couple of years but it could happen.

Some of these jets have a lot of hours left to fly but the production rates is strong enough to just phase them off if they want. Could be mothballed for spares/replacement chassis for the remaining units using them.

I find the J-16s quite hard to replace with J-20s, they don't share the same job.

J-16 is one exception will stay produced with new gen.