J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Blitzo]

The combined requirement of the American services for >2500 Joint Strike Fighters was identified from the very inception of the program in the mid-late 1990s. In the preceding years, China had witnessed America's dismantling of reasonably formidable Iraqi air defences in Operation Desert Storm, aided in part by the world's first operational VLO combat aircraft, and the outpouring of RMA thought that followed, including USAF's commitment to VLO as a foundational characteristic of the future inventory. This period also encompassed the production and operational debut of the B-2 Spirit and the ongoing development of the F-22 Raptor. Most recently, America's "carrier flex" in 1996 had highlighted the PLA's various inadequacies in the face of American power. The notion that, in this environment, PLA analysts would've looked at plans for the JSF program and gone "nah, I don't think so" is almost beyond belief.

Depending on when that impression first occurred, it could have been viable as a reflection of expected/potential cost growth of F-35s and/or program cutdown in a manner that the F-22 and B-2 had done.

I think there are definitely time periods where that train of thought could have been reasonable.

 

[Lethe]

Depending on when that impression first occurred, it could have been viable as a reflection of expected/potential cost growth of F-35s and/or program cutdown in a manner that the F-22 and B-2 had done.

I think there are definitely time periods where that train of thought could have been reasonable.

Undoubtedly there were and continue to be cost challenges associated with building, operating and maintaining VLO aircraft, but much of the reduction in B-2 and F-22 production numbers relative to initial estimates can be attributed to budget cuts (in the 1990s) and reallocations (in the War on Terror era). While alternative history is always a risky exercise, I think we can be confident that, had the Soviet Union not collapsed, both the ATB and ATF programs would've been produced in significantly greater numbers than they ultimately were.

Hence, projecting based on the ATB/ATF/ATA/etc. programs that the JSF program would fall greatly short of initial projections implies projecting a continuing lack of peer competitors for USAF/USN/USMC to structure themselves against. In other words, PLA analysts would be betting against the rise of the PLA!

USAF's total commitment to a VLO solution in the 1990s and 2000s, rejecting various "Super Viper" and other non-VLO alternatives, all but ensured that JSF production numbers would reach four digits. USAF only began to entertain the idea of non-VLO solutions after JSF had passed through the major decision gates and been committed to full-rate production. Despite the ongoing challenges of F-35 operations, what will ultimately limit its production is the availability of platforms better suited to confronting China, i.e. the future B-21 Raider and NGAD programs, and reallocation of the procurement budget to those platforms.

 

[Deino]

Concerning news on the J-20, and especially J-20A, it's a pretty quiet time at the moment ... but has this been posted yet?

(Image via @四川地产界高层-军事画匠 from Weibo)

 

[tankphobia]

So with the overwhelming advantage of 5th gen vlo fighters against preceding generation in mind and given that there is no current operational loyal wingman UAV in service. Would a slug fest be majorly decided by the number of stealth fighters? Once the stealth fighters run out it would almost become a one-sided slaughter until the opposing side reach land based air defence range.

 

[ougoah]

So with the overwhelming advantage of 5th gen vlo fighters against preceding generation in mind and given that there is no current operational loyal wingman UAV in service. Would a slug fest be majorly decided by the number of stealth fighters? Once the stealth fighters run out it would almost become a one-sided slaughter until the opposing side reach land based air defence range.

Aren't there plenty of US and NATO loyal wingman UCAV (UAV whatever semantics people want to operate with) flying for evaluation and LRIP.

None of the publicly known ones are really all that impressive but changing the nature of air combat is a given.

China has Dark Sword heavy, (and judging by imagery and leaked conferences, exercises) supersonic loyal wingman. Heavy and large means fuel and payload capacity but China should also field the smaller loyal wingman a la Kratos and Ghost Bat. Those are very easy to do in terms of mechanics... basically all the nitty gritty effectiveness of these platforms derive from networking and sensor capabilities. Both of which China is fairly strong at, at least in comparison to every other country on the planet except the US (assumed benchmark in this post lol).

Drones and all supporting sub-systems are basically one area of Chinese strength.

You can bet that when shooting wars happen, not only are loyal wingmans going to be a dime a dozen, there are going to be so many types fielded by US and China we'd lose count. Possibly many hidden from public view that both airforces have been training with and against for some time.

As revolutionary for air combat as fighter level UCAVs are and cheaper smaller loyal wingman for attrition calculus, I'm convinced both US and China explore and pursue increased capabilities in digital domains of warfare FAR more than meet the eye. After all, Electronic War related topics is held as the highest level of military secrecy in China. The US also don't talk much about this field. This and the theoretical physics departments of both nations are the tip of the spear. Everyone talks about tank barrels smoothbore vs rifled (settled debate I know I know) but many fail to realise modern kinetic warfare is all about manufacturing, attrition, energy, and your physics departments.



"tac view" screencap of exercise... yep that sure looks like Dark Sword program UAV. No flanker has a wing of those proportions and that thin, back, and short no matter what angle you turn. Plus the aircraft represented clearly has a very wide tail end fuselage.

 

[Gloire_bb]

So with the overwhelming advantage of 5th gen vlo fighters against preceding generation in mind and given that there is no current operational loyal wingman UAV in service. Would a slug fest be majorly decided by the number of stealth fighters? Once the stealth fighters run out it would almost become a one-sided slaughter until the opposing side reach land based air defence range.

No/no.
While it isn't as complex as it is expected to be, say, 10 years from now - air combat has long since become a collaborative effort.
The more collaborative combat is, the less advantage in any singular part of the equation is individually decisive.

Furthermore, the current stealth advantage over current non-stealth types is substantially decreased.
Updates matter, J-16/Su-35/J-10C aren't Su-27sk/J-8B/J-7G.

 

[Atomicfrog]

No/no.
While it isn't as complex as it is expected to be, say, 10 years from now - air combat has long since become a collaborative effort.
The more collaborative combat is, the less advantage in any singular part of the equation is individually decisive.

Furthermore, the current stealth advantage over current non-stealth types is substantially decreased.
Updates matter, J-16/Su-35/J-10C aren't Su-27sk/J-8B/J-7G.

Theater of operation is a huge part of advantages and disavantages of 4th vs 5th generation. J-20 is clearly master of the sky if it used in defence arround China because of the range involved for opponents. The same with J-35 and F-22 arround Guam, Hawai... You deny tanker support and nothing will happen. J-20 spotting and J-16 lobbing PL-17 is probably very strong for that task. Collaboration between the two make attacking China and taking air superiority quite difficult. I cannot see a combination that strong on the US side but they have B2 and soon B21 to bypass a big part of the problem.

 

[zbb]

Concerning news on the J-20, and especially J-20A, it's a pretty quiet time at the moment ... but has this been posted yet?

(Image via @四川地产界高层-军事画匠 from Weibo)

View attachment 122555

Can you explain what's concerning?

 

[tankphobia]

No/no.
While it isn't as complex as it is expected to be, say, 10 years from now - air combat has long since become a collaborative effort.
The more collaborative combat is, the less advantage in any singular part of the equation is individually decisive.

Furthermore, the current stealth advantage over current non-stealth types is substantially decreased.
Updates matter, J-16/Su-35/J-10C aren't Su-27sk/J-8B/J-7G.

My thought on this matter is, with both China and the US(soon maybe) having 300km+ missiles, stealth jets can get away with picking off supportive elements such as tankers and AWACS, forcing 4th gen planes to have limited support when engaged. Since 5th gen jets tend to have more powerful radars then their predecessors, would it not still be a turkey shoot unless both sides are using stealth jets in the fight? Armaments being the same, stealth jets simply have a longer reach as they can avoid detection for longer.

I'm not convinced based on dog fighting simulations since in real conflict it would not be 1v1 or even 5v5, we could see dozens of stealth jets involved in a single operation.

 

[Deino]

Can you explain what's concerning?

Concerning - at least the way I learned it too - as "in regard to" ...