J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

JH-XX is the project of Xian Aircraft industry group.

Is it still or was it?

 

[sunnymaxi]

Is it still or was it?

it was.. but nobody knows the current status of JH-XX.

 

[latenlazy]

I think it is fairly reasonable to assume the J-16 to be the JH-7 replacement. And I also expect the J-20S to replace both those aircraft eventually.

In theory you would make a larger airframe with longer reach and payload with WS-15 engines but I am kind of doubting it will happen. I think it makes sense to project airpower beyond the first island chain but it might not make sense economically.

I expect the J-20S to be used for training pilots and to replace previous dual seater aircraft.

I suspect the correct take for the JH-XX now is that it’ll be a “6th generation” tactical strike option. If it’s deemed that a fully networked drone based air fleet isn’t a mature and reliable enough technology to just go full send into.

 

[plawolf]

Apologies if this question has been asked or debated to death before, but are there certain canard use scenarios where it would physically block the opening of the side-bay doors and thus prevent the missile (PL-10) from being put into "deployed for LOBL" mode or even just block ejection altogether even for LOAL (which the PL-10 is capable of)?

I understand that the canards are expected only to be used for maneuverability in WVR situations where stealth has already failed, but doesn't this mean that the PL-10's have to be moved into "deployed for LOBL" mode (sitting outside of the plane) before aerial maneuvers utilising the canards can be made? This could induce a crucial lag time of a few seconds between first detection (and decision to forsake stealth and enter WVR combat) and being able to maneuver using the canards while also having the WVR missiles ready for firing. Or is it expected that there would be a few seconds to spare during WVR combat where the canards can be straightened out and the PL-10 deployed and fired?

No. These two photos shows the best contrast.

While the canards may just clip the side weapon bay doors under certain angles if the plane was on the ground, the deflection needed to do that is so extreme the plane would almost instantly kill the pilot and disinterested mid air.

 

[tphuang]

Yankee & Co. have mentioned that Chengdu AC has reached its absolute limit today (~100 units) for the J-20's annual production (and that unfortunately, workers who passed away from overwork, i.e. karoshi (過労死) there is actually more than the previously mentioned 2 people).

We've also heard since at least 2022 or 2023 where Chengdu AC will have a new (3rd?) assembly hall.

Firstly, do we know that said new (3rd?) assembly hall has been completed, if not put into use by now?

Secondly, do we know whether there are any plans for more expansions in terms of production/assembly halls and the workforce size at Chengdu AC?

Thirdly, do we know of any plans to actually have non-Chengdu ACs (e.g. Guizhou) to share the immensely heavy burden of the Chengdu AC?

The shell of the factory probably completed already based on satellite photos but it takes time to get equipment moved in and start trial production and then mass production. You can always hire more workers. That’s logical. I’m pretty much all Chinese industries, they can scale up.

100 is likely the max you can do with their current facilities. Overwork is likely factory operating at above 100% utilization. We have seen that kind of pace in various Chinese automakers and semi fabs when they really scale up production. With the new space, they don’t need to operate around the clock and that will reduce worker fatigue. They should be able to comfortably ramp up to 150 and then 200 down the line.

And in wartime, they can go even higher.

it’s not good to be operating at greater than 100% utilization.

 

[tphuang]

I suspect the correct take for the JH-XX now is that it’ll be a “6th generation” tactical strike option. If it’s deemed that a fully networked drone based air fleet isn’t a mature and reliable enough technology to just go full send into.

I would hope that you can fully replace fighter bombers with UCAV by then.

 

[latenlazy]

I would hope that you can fully replace fighter bombers with UCAV by then.

Very big open question that no one knows the answer to. But militaries have to be conservative to mitigate tail risk and the PLA for all the immense leaps we’ve seen it take over the years has been for the most part a very conservatively minded military.

 

[Index]

Yankee & Co. have mentioned that Chengdu AC has pretty much reached the absolute limit (~100 units) for the J-20's annual production rate (and that unfortunately, workers who passed away from overwork, i.e. karoshi (過労死) there is actually more than the previously mentioend 2 people).

Sounds like complete BS to me. There's 10 000s of ppl involved in the whole supply chain likely. Working on J-20 doesn't confer an immunity to stroke, cancer or heart disease. ~2 people over 10 years in a company family of many 1000s passing away is just normal human condition. And a lot of very smart people are not that smart when it comes to taking care of their health.

Does western propaganda think J-20 factories are like ww2 nazi Jewish staffed munition plants? Be real. Nobody either the design or workshop side works on a J-20 for longer than they feel like they want/can get scheduled for.

 

[latenlazy]

Sounds like complete BS to me. There's 10 000s of ppl involved in the whole supply chain likely. Working on J-20 doesn't confer an immunity to stroke, cancer or heart disease. ~2 people over 10 years in a company family of many 1000s passing away is just normal human condition. And a lot of very smart people are not that smart when it comes to taking care of their health.

Does western propaganda think J-20 factories are like ww2 nazi Jewish staffed munition plants? Be real. Nobody either the design or workshop side works on a J-20 for longer than they feel like they want/can get scheduled for.

Death from overwork is a real thing. It’s a very low incidence event but working too hard especially if it impacts sleep and rest raises your stress hormones and if sustained over long periods that can do a lot of damage to your body, making you susceptible to mortality from other risk factors.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Sounds like complete BS to me. There's 10 000s of ppl involved in the whole supply chain likely. Working on J-20 doesn't confer an immunity to stroke, cancer or heart disease. ~2 people over 10 years in a company family of many 1000s passing away is just normal human condition. And a lot of very smart people are not that smart when it comes to taking care of their health.

Does western propaganda think J-20 factories are like ww2 nazi Jewish staffed munition plants? Be real. Nobody either the design or workshop side works on a J-20 for longer than they feel like they want/can get scheduled for.

I don't see how that sounds like complete BS.

Death due to overwork (or death due to illness caused by overwork) is far from being breaking news, more so in East Asian societies. And this isn't actually the first time where death from overwork (or death due to illness from overwork) has happened in the Chinese MIC, albeit being somewhat seldom/rare in occurence compared to other fields/industries.

Yankee & Co. brought that up mainly as one of the representations/indications on how "at capacity" Chengdu AC currently is with regards to J-20 production - Such that the PLAAF deems the procurement of J-35A absolutely necessary to push up China's 5th-gen fleet size as quickly as possible (and that Shenyang AC does have some degree of spare capacities to help out).

Also, do people here in this forum just go blazing "Western propaganda" whenever any discouraging/bad/negative news comes out of China? Really?