J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Yankee & Co. have mentioned that Chengdu AC has reached its absolute limit today (~100 units) for the J-20's annual production (and that unfortunately, workers who passed away from overwork, i.e. karoshi (過労死) there is actually more than the previously mentioned 2 people).
We've also heard since at least 2022 or 2023 where Chengdu AC will have a new (3rd?) assembly hall.
Firstly, do we know that said new (3rd?) assembly hall has been completed, if not put into use by now?
Secondly, do we know whether there are any plans for more expansions in terms of production/assembly halls and the workforce size at Chengdu AC?
Thirdly, do we know of any plans to actually have non-Chengdu ACs (e.g. Guizhou) to share the immensely heavy burden of the Chengdu AC?
We've also heard since at least 2022 or 2023 where Chengdu AC will have a new (3rd?) assembly hall.
Firstly, do we know that said new (3rd?) assembly hall has been completed, if not put into use by now?
Secondly, do we know whether there are any plans for more expansions in terms of production/assembly halls and the workforce size at Chengdu AC?
Thirdly, do we know of any plans to actually have non-Chengdu ACs (e.g. Guizhou) to share the immensely heavy burden of the Chengdu AC?
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I think Deino mentioned a serial J-10 aircraft was spotted which should have been manufactured at Guizhou.
Between the existing demand to replace the J-11 fleet and the possible future demand for dual seaters I think they still have a lot of room to grow J-20A/J-20S production.
I think a lot of it depends on if the J-20S will replace the J-16, JH-7, Su-30MKK or not. It might or it could be the mythical JH-XX will be introduced with a larger internal payload.
Between the existing demand to replace the J-11 fleet and the possible future demand for dual seaters I think they still have a lot of room to grow J-20A/J-20S production.
I think a lot of it depends on if the J-20S will replace the J-16, JH-7, Su-30MKK or not. It might or it could be the mythical JH-XX will be introduced with a larger internal payload.
Judging by how they described the situation, Chengdu AC is very likely pretty much focused on only J-20 production today (no J-10 mentioned). There's also the J-20S & J-20A production and upgrading works on the current J-20s, where Chengdu (and even the 632th) are responsible for.
Moreover, there's the J-XD and at least one high-tier UCAV development projects that Chengdu AC is working on right now.
There's actually much more factors and variables to consider than just "look, muh large space, muh industry scale, that means muh higher production rate".
Personally, I don't think we'd ever see the JH-XX.
Shenyang AC better be focused on the J-16, J-35/A production (and possibly J-XDH and high-tier UCAV development as well).
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There's difference between it can do it and will it do it... Mig-25 at top speed was eating his engine, maybe J-20 at top speed is eating his stealth coating...
JH-XX is the project of Xian Aircraft industry group.
Key question: Will Xi'an AC actually have enough production capacity for the JH-XX, given that now they're already pretty busy with producing Y(Y)-20A/B, H-6K/J/N and the MA60/600/700, let alone the H-20 and Y-XX in the future?
TBH, I'd like to err on the cautious side.
I think it is fairly reasonable to assume the J-16 to be the JH-7 replacement. And I also expect the J-20S to replace both those aircraft eventually.
In theory you would make a larger airframe with longer reach and payload with WS-15 engines but I am kind of doubting it will happen. I think it makes sense to project airpower beyond the first island chain but it might not make sense economically.
I expect the J-20S to be used for training pilots and to replace previous dual seater aircraft.
In theory you would make a larger airframe with longer reach and payload with WS-15 engines but I am kind of doubting it will happen. I think it makes sense to project airpower beyond the first island chain but it might not make sense economically.
I expect the J-20S to be used for training pilots and to replace previous dual seater aircraft.
yeah that's true. but if there is really need of JH-XX as a stealth bomb truck. then Xian can transfer this project to some other AVIC branch or maybe expand their own facility.
honestly, nobody knows the exact status of JH-XX.. but current time period is the best for Military industrial complex with historic expansion of material/composite carbon T700/T800 and respective industries plus a new wave of skilled labor.. my point is, they can do this if PLAAF actually demand..