J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[by78]

An old image from two years ago, but in much higher quality.

 

[iantsai]

I'd go with a cost range of $70-86 Mn for a J-20, with a 70% confidence level.

The F-35A cost is $86 Mn (including engine) and has reached a floor.
My best guess is that the J-20 (including engine) costs $70-80 Mn.
However, there is a possibility that the J-20 is almost as expensive as an F-35A

And in another 4 years, the J-20 would drop another $10 Mn, as per the F-35 experience, because the Chinese are at an earlier stage of the production learning curve.

Methodology and all the assumptions below.

......

I think the methodology may be correct, but the estimate of the initial construction cost of the J-20 is not.

The research and development costs of the aircraft are generally allocated to the initial demand order quantity or the known total production quantity, or be contracted independently. Then certain calculations are made before the financial costs are amortized. Only when two aircrafts have same R&D model, their unit price can be reasonably compared.

The reason why the F-35 is not suitable as a reference for the J-20 is that F-35 is actually three types of aircrafts that are packaged into the same research and development plan. This results in its development cycle and cost being much higher than that of a single-target air superiority aircraft like J-20.

In addition, according to reports, the maintenance and spare parts logistics of the F-35 are contracted by Lockheed Martin, so that the maintenance and spare parts supply logistics costs after delivery are also allocated to the order price of each aircraft in advance.

A more appropriate reference type should be F-22.

 

[AndrewS]

I think the methodology may be correct, but the estimate of the initial construction cost of the J-20 is not.

The research and development costs of the aircraft are generally allocated to the initial demand order quantity or the known total production quantity, or be contracted independently. Then certain calculations are made before the financial costs are amortized. Only when two aircrafts have same R&D model, their unit price can be reasonably compared.

The reason why the F-35 is not suitable as a reference for the J-20 is that F-35 is actually three types of aircrafts that are packaged into the same research and development plan. This results in its development cycle and cost being much higher than that of a single-target air superiority aircraft like J-20.

In addition, according to reports, the maintenance and spare parts logistics of the F-35 are contracted by Lockheed Martin, so that the maintenance and spare parts supply logistics costs after delivery are also allocated to the order price of each aircraft in advance.

A more appropriate reference type should be F-22.

You can't get an accurate F-22 cost because it's been out of production for so long.

The F-35 costs I've used are for the Air Force Variant and are the flyaway costs excluding R&D

 

[siegecrossbow]

 

[minime]

An old image from two years ago, but in much higher quality.

Is that "ribs" on the DSI? what if those ribs can move to form new shape?

 

[taxiya]

Is that "ribs" on the DSI? what if those ribs can move to form new shape?

It is jpeg compression artifact. The artifact is more pronounced on a fine luminance or color gradient surface such as the DSI or a ball in dark lightning. It can also be easily noticed in a dark scene in a highly compressed video, otherwise the video would look perfect in bright scene.

 

[_killuminati_]

China's aircraft are being produced by state owned companies which do not require profit. Labor in China is also cheaper than in the US.
Also unlike the F-35 program the aircraft is likely all built and assembled at the same site with only the stuffing coming from elsewhere. This should further reduce unit costs.

Even the JF-17 doesn't cost $20m (retail value), despite being half the size with less complex components.

My guess is atleast $50m for local cost, initially.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Is that "ribs" on the DSI? what if those ribs can move to form new shape?

PLAAF fill the DSI with water. What you are seeing are waves forming in the surface as the engines draw in air.

 

[sequ]

PLAAF fill the DSI with water. What you are seeing are waves forming in the surface as the engines draw in air.

Indeed, worlds first inflatable DSI.

 

[Deino]

View attachment 124837

The 9th Air Brigade (Wang Hai Brigade) at Wuhu



PS: Typo corrected!