J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

Actually never mind, I see what you mean now.
If it was 40 a batch after CB07, then CB10 should only go up to 280, rather than 288.

Tbh all of these CB numbers being thrown around on weibo really make it rather difficult in terms of picking and choosing which are reliable and which are not because many contradict each other.


If CB10288 is legit, and if CB09234 is legit, then one possible explanation is:
CB00-07: 20 airframes per batch
CB08-09: ??40 airframes per batch
CB10: ??50-60 airframes per batch

That's exactly my theory at the moment too, even if it's a bit annoying so when I go through it at the moment, we have three models/theories, all of which don't fit somewhere:

But to overall sum it up!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742115889200103684

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

That's exactly my theory at the moment too, even if it's a bit annoying so when I go through it at the moment, we have three models/theories, all of which don't fit somewhere:

1. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB08 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB09 40 aircraft
... but then CB09234 doesn't fit into the CB09 block (181-220) and CB10288 doesn't fit into the CB10 block (221-260) ... so that theory falls out for me!

View attachment 123333

2. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB06 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB07 40 aircraft
... but then CB09220 doesn't fit into the CB9 block (221-260)

View attachment 123334

3. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB07 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB08 40 aircraft and possibly, from CB10 more (50-60?)
... then CB10288 does not initially fit into the CB10 block (241-280), but it would fit assuming more than 40 aircraft from CB10 on.

View attachment 123335

Purple are rumoured cns and red are numbers that do not fit. What do you say?

Based on presently available data, Theory #3 seems to be the most likely. Though, having incrementally-increasing numbers of J-20s for each successive batches could be a possibility, IMO.

And just to be sure - Now we need one J-20 from the 12th batch (i.e. CB11XXX) to present itself... Getting greedy aren't we? XD

In the meantime, with the 3rd assembly hall at Chengdu AC completed sometime last year, I'm guessing that newer batches are going to have even more J-20s per batch.

 

[AndrewS]

Any twin-seater can do it, there is no special advantage in being larger.
Case can be made that a very highly specialized control aircraft can indeed benefit from larger airframe(for example if we want to fuze raw data feed from multiple sensor drones right there), but then even larger platform may be even better.

For "normal" twin seaters, i don't see too many useful advantages. it's brains, datalinks and computers, not kinematics and carrying capacity.

Consider the notional combat radius of a Loyal Wingman at 1700km.

This is significantly greater than what medium-weight fighters like the J-10C or F-16 can reach

So a twin-seater with a larger airframe is more useful for distant power projection.

 

[AndrewS]

That's exactly my theory at the moment too, even if it's a bit annoying so when I go through it at the moment, we have three models/theories, all of which don't fit somewhere:

1. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB08 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB09 40 aircraft
... but then CB09234 doesn't fit into the CB09 block (181-220) and CB10288 doesn't fit into the CB10 block (221-260) ... so that theory falls out for me!

View attachment 123333

2. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB06 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB07 40 aircraft
... but then CB09220 doesn't fit into the CB9 block (221-260)

View attachment 123334

3. Theory: Batch CB00 to CB07 = 20 aircraft + from batch CB08 40 aircraft and possibly, from CB10 more (50-60?)
... then CB10288 does not initially fit into the CB10 block (241-280), but it would fit assuming more than 40 aircraft from CB10 on.

View attachment 123335

Purple are rumoured cns and red are numbers that do not fit. What do you say?

But to overall sum it up!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742115889200103684

If they've moved to a 2323 schedule, that implies 2 batches per year.

So if they're at 100 per year, that implies 50 per batch. And potentially increasing to 60 per batch next year.

 

[Deino]

If they've moved to a 2323 schedule, that implies 2 batches per year.

So if they're at 100 per year, that implies 50 per batch. And potentially increasing to 60 per batch next year.

if this is true, then I expect more a split of 40+60 instead of 50+50 since it would better fit to the IMO more likely third theory

 

[AndrewS]

if this is true, then I expect more a split of 40+60 instead of 50+50 since it would better fit to the IMO more likely third theory

Yeah, that would match with a ramp up in production in 2023

 

[Deino]

Not sure if this image of J-20A number 2052 was already posted. (Image via @四川地产界高层-军事画匠 from Weibo)

 

[PimpNamedSlicbac]

I remember seeing somewhere in this thread that the J-20 had gone through testing with a new cannon, any info on that?

 

[Blitzo]

I remember seeing somewhere in this thread that the J-20 had gone through testing with a new cannon, any info on that?

No additional info that is concrete.

 

[taxiya]

Not sure if this image of J-20A number 2052 was already posted. (Image via @四川地产界高层-军事画匠 from Weibo)

View attachment 123372

A photo of it moment (second) before was taken in October 2023 and posted in #497