Yeah, he posted CB10288, there must be something on with my eyes, Jesus. Then I am confused again how they made their numerical system again.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
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I mean, CB10288 would still be consistent with your "every batch after batch number 07/overall batch 8 has 40 airframes" theory, because batch 10 would have airframes 280 to 319 (edit: or would it be 281 to 320? I forget)
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Given the recent warning from the MSS, perhaps that is to be expected.
My guess: While a photograph of a fighter jet fresh-off the assembly line will be rather obvious for the censorship department, a random serial number "from nowhere" (lol) likely won't.
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Any twin-seater can do it, there is no special advantage in being larger.
Case can be made that a very highly specialized control aircraft can indeed benefit from larger airframe(for example if we want to fuze raw data feed from multiple sensor drones right there), but then even larger platform may be even better.
For "normal" twin seaters, i don't see too many useful advantages. it's brains, datalinks and computers, not kinematics and carrying capacity.
In that case, perhaps the J-20 has unofficially broke through the 300-airframes mark? Either before the end of last year (if Batch 10 is completed before 2024) or sometime early this year.
Given that's another "milestone" I think it is more prudent to say that right now, chances are anywhere from 250-300 J-20s have been produced as a wide confidence interval and that it's not impossible that they may have broke the 300 mark.
But given the way in which people tend to be unable to read and exaggerate things with too much confidence, it is better for us to just not entertain it with explicit words yet.
Interesting ... in another post he also mentioned something what sounds like the "final maiden flight for 2023 was performed on 28. December" and something I read already a few times but I do not understand: What is meant with "the "2323" balanced production goal"?? The 2323 is strange?!
Pardon, but how sure we are with this "every batch after batch 7 - or as it seems from Batch 7 aka CB08 on - has 40 airframes" theory?
It's a theory -- i.e.: we aren't sure, but it is one of the more reasonable explanations that might rationalize some of the more recent/larger CB numbers we've been getting rumours of recently.
To confirm it, we would need a CB number for the airframe being over 180 to confirm or deny it.
(edit: to clarify, I actually made a mistake in the last post, which I've since amended -- I wrote batch 7 originally, rather it should be batch number 07 which is the overall batch 8, given that batch number 00 is batch 1 technically)
Kalec's post from before explains the reasoning fairly well:
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
This specific one is rumored to be Series No. 61263 with a CB number of CB0X234. However the CB number doesn't make sense to me so take it with a grain of salt. Source: 齐天的孙猴子 Well, I'm a bit sceptical since the image is so small and blurry that reading the serial number is barely...
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Thanks ... and indeed, all rumoured number (in fact all but CB09220 since the first CB09xxx aircraft should be CB09221) would fit into this system, if from Batch 07 aka CB08xxx the size of a batch consists of 40 aircraft.
But do you have an idea what's the meaning of "the "2323" balanced production goal"??