J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[siegecrossbow]

Continued...

Engines

The 2014 Pentagon report on Chinese military power observed, “China faces numerous challenges to achieving full operational capability, including developing high-performance jet engines.” The flight characteristics of the J-20 are limited by inadequate engines because of delays in the development of the Chinese WS-15 engine, which is supposed to have about 40,000 pounds of thrust and thrust vectoring. The prototypes of the J-20 seem to be equipped with Russian AL-31FN engines, which lack thrust vectoring or adequate power to achieve supercruise speed or high maneuverability.

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To compensate for the WS-15 problems, China is procuring the Russian Su-35 fighter to get its 117S engines, the most advanced Russian fighter engines. The sale of Su-35s to China was long delayed by Russia’s concern about Chinese reverse engineering. The Russian engine, however, reportedly will not have enough thrust to give the J-20 supercruise capability, though it will improve aerodynamic performance and provide thrust vectoring.

Lockheed Martin says the F-35 has a limited supercruise capability (150 miles at Mach 1.2.) giving it an advantage over the current J-20. If the F-35 thrust is increased through engine improvements, this should increase its supercruise potential and give it an advantage even over a J-20 equipped with the Russian engines.

Sensors

The J-20’s sensor capabilities appear to be impressive. In addition to its active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, the Chinese appear to have copied the stealthy electro-optical targeting system sensor housing from the F-35. The J-20 reportedly also has a 360-degree optical counterpart to the F-35s distributed aperture system. Just because it looks the same does not mean that it works the same. While the J-20’s AESA radar probably gives it enhanced detection against low RCS targets (compared to passive array or mechanically scanned radars), not all AESA radars have the same power and capabilities, including stealth, electronic protection, and electronic warfare capability. According to press reports, the F-35’s APG-81 radar operates “in LPI (low probability of intercept) and LPD (low probability of detection) modes that minimize the aircraft’s signature to comply with its low observable (LO) requirements. The radar is optimized for agility, very low noise, high efficiency, and fully supports the LO nature of the aircraft.”

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Since the J-20 radar is an early Chinese AESA, it is unlikely to be in the same class as the radar on the F-35. Moreover, it is unlikely China can match the “flying super computer” capabilities of the F-35, including sensor integration and networking to improve pilot situational awareness.

Assessment

In 2015, then-chief of the F-35 joint program office Lieutenant General Christopher Bogdan, U.S. Air Force, commented, “I’d put this airplane up against any airplane in the world today, tomorrow and for the next 20 or 30 years, and we will come out ahead.” The Air Force says the F-35 achieved 110 “kills” against “adversary aircraft” in Exercise Northern Lightning and achieved a 20-to-1 kill ratio in the early 2017 Red Flag exercise. Marine F-35Bs reportedly suppressed SAM sites without being targeted.

Overall, the J-20 is likely to be a serious threat to U.S. aircraft, ships, and bases for the foreseeable future. While the F-35 has better stealth and sensor capability and the J-20 may not be a matchup one-on-one, the Chinese may be able to put more of them in the sky. In 2017, General Herbert Carlisle, Commander Air Combat Command, stated that in the South China Sea the threat may be “10 squadrons of J-20s, plus Su-35s…and Su-30s and J-10s and J-11s.” So, while not as good as the F-35, the J-20 does not have to be as stealthy or have sensor parity to have an impact on the Far East military balance.

 

[latenlazy]

And that is how the US ends up underestimating its potential adversaries...

 

[Deino]

Deino is quoted in an article by USNI.

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Thanks for the hint, however I'm not too happy with that report.

Especially the part here is right on a hint that it is not that well-researched or that the author simply came to wrong conclusions:

Aviation Week reports that one of the J-20’s missions appears to be maritime reconnaissance and targeting for antiship ballistic missiles and in support of ship-launched cruise missiles. Its large weapon bays will enhance its ability as a strike-fighter, making it a serious long-range threat to land and naval targets. It reportedly can be armed with a precision air-to-surface missile with a 600-mile range.

... and calling the "J-11B (a Su-27/Su-33 Flanker derivative)" is also not helpful.

Deino

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Has this news been posted? Seem like significant news . It says they have 3 lines open for serial production . Some one in Pakdef said it is now 4 lines

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China's J-20 fifth-gen fighter moves into series production
Reuben F Johnson - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
26 October 2017

Key Points

• The CAC J-20 fifth-generation fighter will soon move into series production, according to a CCTV report
• The type may be brought into service before achieving FOC

The Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) J-20 ‘fifth-generation’ multirole fighter will soon enter series production and is on a path towards achieving full operational capability (FOC) with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a 23 October report on China Central TV’s (CCTV) Channel 4, which is the military channel of the state-run broadcasting service.

Although just a pair of J-20s were shown at last November's Airshow China, a recent CCTV report showed footage of five J-20s flying in formation. (IHS Markit/Kelvin Wong)

The broadcast showed a group of five J-20s in formation, which is the largest number of the type seen flying simultaneously in any publicly viewed display.

The aircraft did make a brief ‘fly by’ appearance at last year’s Airshow China, held last November at Zhuhai in China’s Guangdong province, but there were only two aircraft in the flight display. Additionally, the aircraft were based at an aerodrome in nearby Foshan, so they never landed or were parked on the static display line at Zhuhai.

According to the CCTV report, the aircraft has entered what is referred to as “stable” mass production, which is interpreted as meaning there is now a fixed, regular production rate in order to create some minimal economies of scale. The production rate is expected to reach as much as three aircraft per month. Representatives of the company who spoke to CCTV reportedly said there should be more than 100 J-20s produced by the end of 2020.

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[Deino]

Has this news been posted? Seem like significant news . It says they have 3 lines open for serial production . Some one in Pakdef said it is now 4 lines...

Yes I know, but why not even 6 or 7 lines? That would sound even better for the fan boys.

To admit, so far I haven't seen any conclusive reliable link for this ...

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Yes I know, but why not even 6 or 7 lines? That would sound even better for the fan boys.

To admit, so far I haven't seen any conclusive reliable link for this ...

I know I saw you debate with the fanboy in Pakdef. But Jane did mention production rate of 3 aircrafts per month. So I assume 3 lines open. That is significant rate of production even discounting the 4th line
Compare to J 10 production rate of 1 per month for many year before they switch to 2 per month

 

[Totoro]

Representatives of the company who spoke to CCTV reportedly said there should be more than 100 J-20s produced by the end of 2020.

Only way this is possible is if 2020 production volume is over 50 airframes.

That's due to ramp-up of production that always has to occur with new planes. First year several, then if everything is okay perhaps a dozen or 20 year after (2018?) then 30+ in 2019 abd 50ish in 2020.

While not impossible it would signal A) urgency for numbers, even before plane is fully tested and all issues are ironed out. and B) paradigm shift where 4th gen planes are no longer deemed acceptable but next gen planes must quickly become the mainstay of production.

And possibly C) that overall new planes inducted into chinese air forces is going to go over 100 per year very quickly.

One of wilder rumors.

 

[Deino]

I know I saw you debate with the fanboy in Pakdef. But Jane did mention production rate of 3 aircrafts per month. So I assume 3 lines open. That is significant rate of production even discounting the 4th line
Compare to J 10 production rate of 1 per month for many year before they switch to 2 per month

Agreed ... my point is that in recent years I more and more question Jane's reliability.

 

[latenlazy]

Thanks for the hint, however I'm not too happy with that report.

Especially the part here is right on a hint that it is not that well-researched or that the author simply came to wrong conclusions:



... and calling the "J-11B (a Su-27/Su-33 Flanker derivative)" is also not helpful.

Deino

Yeah, I was wondering what was up with the comments they attributed to you. It really didn't sound like the Deino I know.

Yes I know, but why not even 6 or 7 lines? That would sound even better for the fan boys.

To admit, so far I haven't seen any conclusive reliable link for this ...

Only way this is possible is if 2020 production volume is over 50 airframes.

That's due to ramp-up of production that always has to occur with new planes. First year several, then if everything is okay perhaps a dozen or 20 year after (2018?) then 30+ in 2019 abd 50ish in 2020.

While not impossible it would signal A) urgency for numbers, even before plane is fully tested and all issues are ironed out. and B) paradigm shift where 4th gen planes are no longer deemed acceptable but next gen planes must quickly become the mainstay of production.

And possibly C) that overall new planes inducted into chinese air forces is going to go over 100 per year very quickly.

One of wilder rumors.

I'm usually pretty skeptical of these things too, *but* Jane *is* citing a CCTV report that they say is itself citing some company representative. Jane's hasn't been great with China stories, but at the very least they don't normally invent a source out of nothing. Until we see the primary source for this there may be enough cause not to dismiss this claim out of hand. At the very least we should be able to track down the primary source and see for ourselves how reliable it is.

 

[Deino]

Not sure if You know the original report and he indeed misquoted me or - IMO even worse - gives a hint to a wrong conclusion:

1. My original report said nothing to manoeuvrability but I said "...at least until the planned WS-15 engine is available. In the meantime, the J-20's engines are probably adequate and will provide flight performance at least comparable to the latest J-11B fighter." (in quote 3)

Even worse he did not differ between a Su-27 and Su-33 ...

2. Also he implied another conclusion: “As for the development of a genuine 5th generation combat aircraft, China obviously has a long way to go.” This is an apparent reference to China’s problems developing advanced engines and avionics. (in quote 5) This was also meant regarding the still not available WS-15.

3. And finally ... (in quote 8): Andreas Rupprecht writes “The J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35…” Again a misquote: My original sentence was ... "As regards to stealth the J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35 (see the non-stealthy engine exhaust, the uncovered countermeasures launchers and other details)."

And here I'm indeed not wrong that these issues are points of concern...


Deino