J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Richard Santos]

J-20 has a set of capabilities unprecedented in the Chinese air force. The PLAAF needs to explore the potentials of these capabilities, work out operating doctrines, maintenance procedures to support the doctrines, doctrines for how other types of aircraft and assets should coordinate with the J-20.

None of these can be effectively done with 5-6 prototypes. Yet all of these require units with both above average pilot proficiency, as well as exceptional pilot and staff skills in not just following new doctrines and procedures, but have a track record of being unusually innovative and take the large view in developing these doctrines and procedures, which means the units truly capable of developing the j-20 would be just a small subset of units that might eventually become fully qualified on the j-20 once the process and procedures have become established.

Furthermore, as the process and doctrine for the j-20 is developed, room for improvements in the j-20 would undoubtedly be identified. Some of these can be mundane, like the size and location of maintenance access panels, how much maintenance can be done by line units and how much require depot, and location of central refueling ports for fast sortie rates, and some may require more structural changes. Room for improvement in ground support equipment would also be identified, and these may also require matching changes to the aircraft.

Hence the low rate initial production. No need to flood the air force with more j-20s than it could integrate at this stage, no need to build too many airframes without the service improvements that can later be shown to be needed during initial integration, doctrine and procedure development.

Fundmantally, China doesn’t see high probability of high intensity warfare in the near future, hence no need to prematurely flood the air force with unimproved initial versions of j-20

 

[ougoah]

While it may be and hopefully remains to be true that no high intensity conflict happens in Asia, it still makes sense to get some numbers up particularly in PRC's case where they are surrounded on all sides by very capable and large potential enemies. It only takes one little slip from China to lose sovereignty on some piece of land or island, or completely lose the right to claim sovereignty. E.g. Vietnam building islands. Japan unilaterally selling certain islands to a Japanese private buyer. So the potential for conflict can become very real at any time. An air force should not be caught sitting on its hands. PLAAF ought to be two steps ahead of the game. So optimise J-20 delivery with what engines are available for now but still build them. There's no loss in building them. China is not desperately short on material, wealth, or manpower. There's little waste in building 80% capable J-20s. Once WS-15 is out, J-20 assembly lines may well be tooled for mass production by then. In the meantime, there's some benefit in having some LO fighters in PLAAF inventory. What else can even hope to match F-22, F-35 on an even footing in this region? Certainly not Su-35 or J-16.

 

[kurutoga]

While it may be and hopefully remains to be true that no high intensity conflict happens in Asia, it still makes sense to get some numbers up particularly in PRC's case where they are surrounded on all sides by very capable and large potential enemies. It only takes one little slip from China to lose sovereignty on some piece of land or island, or completely lose the right to claim sovereignty. E.g. Vietnam building islands. Japan unilaterally selling certain islands to a Japanese private buyer. So the potential for conflict can become very real at any time

You certainly need to be prepared for the worst, but no country will provoke China in East Asia, not even Japan. If necessary China can prepare for war for a year then attack that country. So there is no point for any country to temporarily snatch up some island.

Of course no sane US President will actually attack China. J-20 helps to build deterrence that US will not attack China easily. This is a stage China want to advertise its capabilities more. Some level of buildup is necessary. Make it more costly for US to attack, which means peace. Even at $200 b per year, it is just around 2% GDP. That military budget is still within the normal range.

Except for the North Korea situation, East Asia will be peaceful for a long time. The world should worry more about Middle East and maybe Afghanistan.

J-20 is a peace factor in terms of regional stability.

 

[Deino]

@Richard santos, @ougoah and @kurutoga.

Please stay on topic. Your nearly endless duscussions are in no way anylonger related to the J-20 but more on topics like general warefare politics and most of all your own perception. Please leave this and stay on topic.

Deino

 

[AndrewS]

LRIP has nothing to do with an aircraft being troublesome. The F-35 case is an exception rather than the rule in this domain. Right now, J-20 is in LRIP stage, why ? Because PLAAF needs to do a few things before the J-20 becomes fully capable fighter aircraft:

• They need to rectify latest minor issues that weren't seen on the prototypes so the full pace production aircrafts are technically all-clear for PLAAF.
• They need to train the pilot instructors, it takes time to fully master the plane, and being able to teach others how to operate the plane.
• They need to refine the combat doctrine to meet with aircraft exact capabilities, which can be done with a large enough first batch of aircrafts.
  
• They need to have a complete and up-to-date training program to match with the previous outcomes underlined in the previous points.

Putting such an advanced aircraft into full service requires a lot of additional work even past prototype stage, PLAAF is showing us that they are taking maters seriously and will only put into FOC the bird when all cases are checked.

The need to create standardised and automated manufacturing processes and tools also comes to mind.

 

[Inst]

Then why not call the J-20 series pre-production J-20s, as the J-10s were pre-production J-10As? LRIP is pretty contaminated by the F-35 program so much that I'm not sure if anyone else would want to reuse the term.

 

[jobjed]

Then why not call the J-20 series pre-production J-20s, as the J-10s were pre-production J-10As? LRIP is pretty contaminated by the F-35 program so much that I'm not sure if anyone else would want to reuse the term.

The J-10s weren't pre-production J-10As. They were fully-fledged combat aircraft and were as combat capable as China could make them at the time, since the PL-12 hadn't finished development. The J-10A upgrade arrived after the PL-12 entered service, and the upgrades were retrofitted onto the SARH-only J-10s.

 

[latenlazy]

Then why not call the J-20 series pre-production J-20s, as the J-10s were pre-production J-10As? LRIP is pretty contaminated by the F-35 program so much that I'm not sure if anyone else would want to reuse the term.

Maybe we shouldn't pin the utility of the term on what happens with the F-35?

 

[delft]

I don't know when was the last time China had series production of combat aircraft ( Deino? ) but for many years these were build in batches. It might well make sense to produce several "normal" batches of J-20's with WS-10X to win experience with producing the aircraft and with maintaining and using them. There is a lot to learn in these respects.
These early J-20's might go to Tibet when the next version takes over in East China.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Deino is quoted in an article by USNI.

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Since early 2011, China has been testing the large multirole J-20 strike fighter/interceptor. According to the 2011 Pentagon report on Chinese military power, China was attempting to introduce stealth, advanced avionics, and supercruise capability to the J-20, which would give it an increased ability “to strike regional air bases, logistical facilities, and other ground-based infrastructure,” as well as giving “the PLA Air Force a platform capable of long range, penetrating strikes into complex air defense environments.” The 2016 edition of the Pentagon report stated that the J-20 had “modern avionics and sensors that offer more timely situational awareness for operations in network-centric combat environments, radars with advanced tracking and targeting capabilities, protection against enemy electronic countermeasures, and integrated EW systems.” China’s state media have recently confirmed press reports that the J-20 is operational.

General

Based on photographs available, the J-20 appears to be larger than the U.S. Air Force F-22, which is larger than the F-35. According to aviation journalist Piotr Butowski, the J-20 design “indicates the priority of speed and range over maneuverability.”

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It appears optimized for a speed of Mach 1.2 to Mach 1.8. The wing area of the J-20 is

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, with wing loading

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.

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Apparently, it does not have a gun. Aviation journalist Andreas Rupprecht states that its maneuverability is at least comparable to the Chinese J-11B (a Su-27/Su-33 Flanker derivative).

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This implies it has good fourth generation maneuverability and may be more maneuverable than the F-35, which was not designed to be more maneuverable than the F-16 or the F-18. Absent a gun, an advantage in maneuverability is less important, although its ability to carry the Chinese version of the Sidewinder internally is a significant advantage in close range combat.

The J-20 should have long range, particularly when its current engines are replaced. Former head of the Russian Air Force Colonel General Alexander Zelin, says its combat radius is approximately 1,250 miles. Photographs of the J-20 show it carrying four large external fuel tanks and dropping them and their pylons, giving it the potential to increase range or loiter time substantially and allowing it to reconvert to stealth mode in flight.

Weapons

The J-20 is reported to carry a long-range air-to-air missile that could hit aircraft at ranges up to 180 miles. A photograph shows it being carried externally, and at some point such a missile could be carried internally. The J-20 clearly represents a threat to AWACS, tanker aircraft, and fourth-generation fighters. In large numbers, it could be a threat against the F-22 and F-35. Its large bomb bays could allow it to launch air-to-ground or antiship missiles beyond the detection range of U.S. systems.

Aviation Week reports that one of the J-20’s missions appears to be maritime reconnaissance and targeting for antiship ballistic missiles and in support of ship-launched cruise missiles. Its large weapon bays will enhance its ability as a strike-fighter, making it a serious long-range threat to land and naval targets. It reportedly can be armed with a precision air-to-surface missile with a 600-mile range.

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Stealth

Like the Russian Pak FA, the J-20 apparently lacks some attributes of a 5th generation fighter. Mikhail Pogosyan, president of Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation and Sukhoi Company, commented, “As for the development of a genuine 5th generation combat aircraft, China obviously has a long way to go.”

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This is an apparent reference to China’s problems developing advanced engines and avionics.

Lieutenant General David Deptula, U.S. Air Force (Retired), said that the J-20 appears to be more advanced than Russia’s Pak FA and “it may have some significant low-observable capabilities on the front end, but not all aspects—nor is it built as a dogfighter.” The J-20 has been characterized as having medium stealth with its best performance from the front and the worst from the rear. Business Insider quotes a senior scientist at Lockheed Martin as saying, “It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.”

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John A. Tirpak, executive editor of Air Force Magazine, wrote that the J-20 “may, in fact, be a stealthy strike platform, designed to be just stealthy enough to get close to a target, launch missiles, and retreat quickly.”

Current Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein has compared the J-20 to the F-117, which reportedly had a radar cross section of .269 square feet.

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If true, the J-20 stealth level is first generation. Andreas Rupprecht writes “The J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35… On the other hand, it is surely far stealthier than most other types of aircraft operational in the Asia-Pacific area.”

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By comparison, the official description of the stealth level of the F-35 is that of a metal golf ball. Aviation Week reports that the F-35 RCS is -30 dBsm or .001 square meters.

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The F-35 is reported to be stealthier than the F-22 from the front, although it is generally said to have a less uniform RCS than the F-22. If true, the F-35 probably has a one-to-two order of magnitude advantage in stealth over the J-20, giving it a first shot/kill advantage in a one-on-one confrontation. This does not consider the F-35’s networking, data fusion, and electronic warfare capabilities, which likely increase its advantage considerably.