Well none of us here a privy to how they actually build these and we're certainly not experts in manufacturing. Not saying they'll be churning them out like that but is it really impossible to approach those numbers if J-10 manufacturing is scaled back to allow room for J-20 production? Surely they will be mass producing J-20 in a matter of years. It's possible to eventually get up to 24 or 36 a year. But that's likely a while away from today and it doesn't make sense to rush this given that WS-15 is not yet ready for application.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
- Status
Once the WS-15 engine is ready in a few years, along with the tooling for mass production, I think they're going to aim for a minimum of 36 per year over 10+ years.
vesicles
Colonel
Are you using the density of iron metal or ferrous oxide?
Density of iron metal is about 7.9 g/cm3. Using this value, you get ~4.7 tons.
If using the density of ferrous oxide, which is 5.7 g/cm3, you get ~ 3.4 tons.
It is still a lot of weight... way more than what I have imagined...
With that being said, the coating can't be purely ferrous oxide. So the actual weight might be slightly less...
To admit this is completely BS IMO and a again a typical report written by !
I remember these reports too posted by one of the usual suspects at the PDF and after only the slightest critical request how this could be achieved he replied that 3D-printing will bring down the manufacturing costs and time to such a level that about 36 J-20 could be build easily and I should shut up with my typical Western style anti-Chinese-arrogance. Alone by late 2017 about 24-30 should be operational.
Even to build 40 by the end of 2019 - surely a realistic estimation - would be a tremendous achievement given since in order to reach that goal CAC must increase the current production rate of about one J-20 in 2 months or 6 per year dramatically.
Deino
Yes, and comparing to F-22 production of 2 per month,, that in my opinion would be more likely, that is still 24 per year, and at this stage,, that's quite a "steep ramp up".. IMHO I just don't think we're anywhere near ready to make the leap to "light speed"..
and yes some of us do understand production processes and what it takes to increase production by 400%,,, its very, very ambitious,, I would remind all that China like the US is currently in an economic slump created by our previous administration, and the strangulation policies exemplified by "obamacare"..
it makes NO sense for China and US to go head to head,, nothing anybody wants is worth the pain,, it does make sense for China to attempt to maintain parity with the US and vica versa ,, just to maintain a strategic balance.. China is NOT afraid the US is gonna start something,, that is pure and utter nonsense..
but they have worked hard to gain parity with the US fighter assets and they have done that very well, and that friends is the new norm, unless somebody? NK for example were to do something stupid,,
J-20 production is a high priority in China, as well it should be.
vesicles
Colonel
From what we have seen lately, my guess is that China won't "ramp up" their J-20 production until they get the appropriate engines that they want.
We first saw a J-20 with WS-10 engines. then we hear stories about a test pilot testing a simulated J-20 with thrust vectoring engines. So IMO, it is clear that China is not satisfied with the engines that the J-20 currently have. And it is clear that they don't want to settle with the current engines. It is also clear that they are close to getting their ideal engines. So why spending so much money to make the version of the J-20 that they don't absolutely LOVE?
I think they will keep making small batches of J-20's so that the PLAAF can use the current version to test various systems, train their pilots and develop tactics (tactics for most effectively using their 5th gen fighters, as well as tactics for going up against 5th gen fighters). At the same time, Chengdu will keep perfecting the J-20 until the PLAAF is fully satisfied with the final version. then we will see a significant "ramp up" of the J-20 production. IMO, China has been using this type of "two-legged" approach for most of their new weapons development. You always have one leg supporting your current needs (that would be their current J-20 model), and another leg stepping forward (future J-20's with new engines).
It is this pragmatic approach that has allowed China to move forward so fast. They understand that they can't completely quench their thirst with only one gigantic gulp of water. It is the continuous drinking of small gulps that will get them to where they ultimately want to be.
We first saw a J-20 with WS-10 engines. then we hear stories about a test pilot testing a simulated J-20 with thrust vectoring engines. So IMO, it is clear that China is not satisfied with the engines that the J-20 currently have. And it is clear that they don't want to settle with the current engines. It is also clear that they are close to getting their ideal engines. So why spending so much money to make the version of the J-20 that they don't absolutely LOVE?
I think they will keep making small batches of J-20's so that the PLAAF can use the current version to test various systems, train their pilots and develop tactics (tactics for most effectively using their 5th gen fighters, as well as tactics for going up against 5th gen fighters). At the same time, Chengdu will keep perfecting the J-20 until the PLAAF is fully satisfied with the final version. then we will see a significant "ramp up" of the J-20 production. IMO, China has been using this type of "two-legged" approach for most of their new weapons development. You always have one leg supporting your current needs (that would be their current J-20 model), and another leg stepping forward (future J-20's with new engines).
It is this pragmatic approach that has allowed China to move forward so fast. They understand that they can't completely quench their thirst with only one gigantic gulp of water. It is the continuous drinking of small gulps that will get them to where they ultimately want to be.
I think the WS-10X is intended for immediate usage on the J-20A. Even if the J-20 plans to flight test the WS-15 in the short term, it would be years until mass production (something the PLAAF, I assume has deemed unacceptable). The new WS-10X engines should nonetheless be an improvement over the AL-31Fs ... otherwise the Chinese wouldn't be in such a hurry to replace engines.
No, he's a J-16 pilot.Look at this J-20 pilot. How old do you guys reckon he is?
His name is Bai Long, born on July 31st, 1989
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Daaaaang his name is White Dragon! Wow, if only he were born a few months earlier, he would be born in the year of the dragon too! His real name's as good as any nickname out there (Maverick, Ice Man, Cougar, White Dragon); hope they paint a lil white dragon insignia on his jet and deck out his helmet wicked awesome! I'd want all that if I were him!
Exactly, and the fact that to date we know of 1 WS-10X powered J-20 would suggest they weren't in a terrible hurry.. as well that we have yet to see the WS-15 in a J-20 suggests that its development is somewhat further out than many would have us believe.
China's current leadership is attempting to roll back much of the former openness and quash the release of photo's of new production aircraft....neverless there is a natural progression in fighter development, and to get to the "next step" often takes a lot of time.
I have repeatedly and will here again suggest that to install the WS-15 in the J-20 isn't going to require massive retooling of the airframe, as the airframe should have been and very likely is designed around the WS-15.. As well, we should realize that the PLAAF is likely very happy with the J-20 even with the AL-31FN.
They will bring out the WS-15 powered J-20 when the WS-15 is ready,, we seem to have seen the WS-15 in flight test on the Y-20, and that is a sign that it is still a work in progress, but all flight testing has not completed. Then and only then, will the WS-15 upgrade J-20 fly, and it will be a tremendous performance booster for the J-20...
- Status