J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[AndrewS]

It's difficult to imagine any country being willing to join the US in fighting China besides Japan, unless China somehow decides to go on some kind of crazy rampage. Outside of that possibility, the US could maybe barely count on SK to allow the US to use its own US bases against China, but using SK's own assets against China short of WW3 sounds laughably unlikely. Similarly for Australia, which is additionally held back by economic/business ties with China. Vietnam is not really worth mentioning, and while India may possibly want to get into the fight, its only realistic avenue of attack is over land, which is certain folly for India given that China would not be facing US/Japanese Army or Marine forces which would essentially allow it to deploy the bulk of its land forces to the Indian theater. So in the end it would just be the US and Japan using their planes and ships.

A shooting war between the US and China would likely degenerate into a general war in the Western Pacific.

It is likely that everyone would be forced to pick a side.

Eg. it would likely be in ASEANs interest to remain neutral, but tacitly support China in keeping the sea lanes open in the South China Sea, against US efforts to shut down trade in the South China Seas.

Australia would make strenuous efforts to prevent a China-US conflict, but if it happens, they'll probably be dragged in and side with the USA.

 

[latenlazy]

Australia has a frigate embedded with the carrier strike group based in Japan. What happens to that frigate if China and the US fight?

Also, in a protracted naval air conflict between the US and China, China loses. But before that happens, a land war in Korea looks like a better option, as China can obtain a victory or stalemate against the US Army in Korea.

So China does need to plan for US, JP, KR and AU

To be clear, my personal opinion is that of the US's allies and strategic partners in the region, the only ones that I think would stick with the US for sure in a conflict with China are Japan and Australia.

In a naval air conflict today China would almost certainly lose. I'm not sure if that will stay true going into the future. That said, even under today's condition I'm not sure there's a way for the US to win an overall war convincingly. A land invasion of China would be outright folly, and trying to strangle China with an embargo could certainly inflict great punishment, but would be unlikely to halt them from continuing their war efforts. If resource by ocean becomes completely inaccessible (unlikely, given how I think Malaysia and Indonesia would position themselves in a hypothetical war), there would still be resource by land from Central Asia and Russia (puts the belt part of "Belt and Road" in context doesn't it?).

Anyways, we're way off topic right now. I think we need to go back to talking about the J-20.

 

[Deino]

Exactly ... gentlemen, please back to the topic: J-20 !

 

[Iron Man]

A shooting war between the US and China would likely degenerate into a generate war in the Western Pacific.

It is likely that everyone would be forced to pick a side.

Eg. it would likely be in ASEANs interest to remain neutral, but tacitly support China in keeping the sea lanes open in the South China Sea, against US efforts to shut down trade in the South China Seas.

Australia has a frigate embedded with the carrier strike group based in Japan. What happens to that frigate if China and the US fight?

Also, in a protracted naval air conflict between the US and China, China loses. But before that happens, a land war in Korea looks like a better option, as China can obtain a victory or stalemate against the US Army in Korea.

So China does need to plan for US, JP, KR and AU

Australia could just as easily unimbed this frigate from the US CBG in Japan prior to hostilities while it ponders its options. I don't see how a land war in Korea is any kind of option at all, like somehow Little Rocket Man is just going to passively allow China to march south through his country just because his grandfather did, or that either the US or China would initiate a secondary conflict on the Korean Peninsula just to score some kind of moral victory against the other. As for general deterioration to WW3, it is by no means a foregone conclusion given we are talking about two large nuclear powers who have incentives to keep the conflict limited. In fact if one side starts winning dramatically it would destabilize the nuclear deterrent posture of the losing side and would actually give significant incentive to the winning side to seek terms for cessation of conflict with an advantage rather than risk a death spiral into nuclear conflict.

Edit: looks like Deino let loose the law just before my own post. I will say no more.

 

[FORBIN]

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It takes less than 3 years for China to build that many J-20s. In 2016, China had two J-20 production lines, one producing J-20 with Russian AL-31 engines and the other producing J-20A installed with China’s WS-10B Taihang engines

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Henri K is very clear 40 for end 2019...he must confuse production lines and batchs !

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2nd with price also

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[Totoro]

I've continued the discussion in this thread:
China's SCS Strategy Thread

 

[FORBIN]

I've continued the discussion in this thread:
China's SCS Strategy Thread

For inventory, number we have here
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/air-division-regiments-bases-brigades-etc.t5451/page-4

 

[Deino]

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It takes less than 3 years for China to build that many J-20s. In 2016, China had two J-20 production lines, one producing J-20 with Russian AL-31 engines and the other producing J-20A installed with China’s WS-10B Taihang engines

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To admit this is completely BS IMO and a again a typical report written by

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!

I remember these reports too posted by one of the usual suspects at the PDF and after only the slightest critical request how this could be achieved he replied that 3D-printing will bring down the manufacturing costs and time to such a level that about 36 J-20 could be build easily and I should shut up with my typical Western style anti-Chinese-arrogance. Alone by late 2017 about 24-30 should be operational.

Henri K is very clear 40 for end 2019...he must confuse production lines and batchs !

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2nd with price also

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Even to build 40 by the end of 2019 - surely a realistic estimation - would be a tremendous achievement given since in order to reach that goal CAC must increase the current production rate of about one J-20 in 2 months or 6 per year dramatically.

Deino

 

[FORBIN]

To admit this is completely BS IMO and a again a typical report written by

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!

I remember these reports too posted by one of the usual suspects at the PDF and after only the slightest critical request how this could be achieved he replied that 3D-printing will bring down the manufacturing costs and time to such a level that about 36 J-20 could be build easily and I should shut up with my typical Western style anti-Chinese-arrogance. Alone by late 2017 about 24-30 should be operational.



Even to build 40 by the end of 2019 - surely a realistic estimation - would be a tremendous achievement given since in order to reach that goal CAC must increase the current production rate of about one J-20 in 2 months or 6 per year dramatically.

Deino

Surely a fanboi

And yes i think about 2 Rgts for 2020 birds delivered end 2019... possible the 2nd not completely full with again some new for tests units it is very decent ! and with the price it is not a J-7...

 

[siegecrossbow]

I don't see J-20 entering true mass production until WS-15 is ready. That said, how many F-35s will be stationed around China by the end of 2019?