J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[latenlazy]

Surface area of a heavy twin engine fighter is in the ball park of 200 square meters. If the ram layer has the same density as iron, and covers the aircraft uniformly, then a ram layer 3mm thick would weigh 5 tons.

The ram is probably be a lot less dense, given that it's an iron mix, not a whole skin.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Surface area of a heavy twin engine fighter is in the ball park of 200 square meters. If the ram layer has the same density as iron, and covers the aircraft uniformly, then a ram layer 3mm thick would weigh 5 tons.

Your post made me research and realize how amazing aircraft design is LOL. A 1m^3 cube of iron weighs 7.9 tonnes. That means it weighs over a tonne more than an empty JF-17, at 15 meters long, engine, avionics, and frame, which weighs 6.6 tonnes altogether. Such a design weighs less than a piece of iron that could fit easily in the back of a small pickup... astounding!

 

[kurutoga]

Surface area of a heavy twin engine fighter is in the ball park of 200 square meters. If the ram layer has the same density as iron, and covers the aircraft uniformly, then a ram layer 3mm thick would weigh 5 tons.

One type of RAM discussed will be ferrous oxide powder mixed with composite. Part iron rust, part plastic. The density will be between metal and plastic, maybe around 4.0-5.0 g/cm3

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Takes it with a gob of salt compilation of known fact, innuendo, speculation, and a bit of truth
Well at least we know they crack the single crystal blade production bottle neck in engine development. Interesting is the speculation of J 20 production and regiment formation
All this talk of China stealing design data of F 22 is innuendo
But WS 15 timeline seem realistic after all they have been working of in the last 15 years or so

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China ramping J20 stealth fighter production and should have improved WS-15 engine by 2019

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

| October 24, 2017 |

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As of 2017, it is reported that control system, stealth coatings and hull materials, and infrared sensors still have technical issues as does the reliability of its WS-15 engines.

Some prototypes use the 14-ton thrust derivative of the Russian AL-31 or Chinese Shenyang WS-10 turbofan engines as they target 2019-2020 for all J-20s to use the 18–19 ton WS-15 engine. The WS-15 will enable the J20 to super-cruise without using afterburners.

China’s homegrown powerful WS-15 engine for its most advanced stealth fighter J-20. Mil.huanqiu.com photo

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

for the fifth-generation fighter aircraft will be ready soon. The engine’s development is proceeding well. They also have begun to design a next-generation aviation engine with a thrust-to-weight ratio that is much higher than that of current types,” he said.

They were still working are able to develop the two most important components in an advanced engine — the single crystal superalloy turbine blades and powder metallurgy superalloy turbine disks — but in mass production, the products’ quality is not very satisfactory.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It takes less than 3 years for China to build that many J-20s. In 2016, China had two J-20 production lines, one producing J-20 with Russian AL-31 engines and the other producing J-20A installed with China’s WS-10B Taihang engines.

A third production line has recently gone into operation to produce J-20A. As each line makes one J-20 a month, their combined production capacity will be 36 a year.

By the end of 2019, there will be a fourth J-20 production line for trial production of J-20B using China’s homegrown WS-15 Emei turbofans.

J-20B is an improved version of J-20 installed with China’s new homegrown powerful WS-15 Emei turbofans. China has already developed WS-15 all-direction vector turbofan with thrust-weight ratio of 10. The turbofan is now undergoing intensive tests and will be ready to be installed in J-20B by 2019, an improved version of J-20.

If the WS-15 meets design goals then J-20B’s cruise speed will be Mach 1.8 and maximum speed exceeds Mach 2.2. Those would equal the US F-22. China will produce 500 J-20B, more than the future total number of other fifth-generation fighter jets in Asia-Pacific.

The US F-22 was in production for 15 years (1996-2011), at a rate of roughly two per month during peak production. China would be about 23 years behind US jet and jet engine technology. China could possibly achieve in 2019 what the US had in 1996). China stole US F22 and F35 designs and technology. Around 2030, China could have 500 J20B and 100 J20 and J20A stealth fighters. The US would have 185 F22 and perhaps 1500 F35s.

 

[latenlazy]

As of 2017, it is reported that control system, stealth coatings and hull materials, and infrared sensors still have technical issues as does the reliability of its WS-15 engines.

Chased down the source for this.

"A source close to the PLA said the J-20s were all equipped with home-made WS-15 engines, but because the engine had not entered mass production, only a few J-20s were available for service.

“There are still a series of technical problems that need to be tackled [on the J-20], including the reliability of its WS-15 engines, [and the plane’s] control system, stealth coat and hull materials and infrared sensor,” said the source, who requested anonymity."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You guys can decide for yourselves how reliable those claims are.

Edit: Also, Next Big Future's reporting on the WS-15 from the March interview is derived from a Diplomat article which misunderstood the same report that we originally misunderstood, that said "the J-20 will soon have a domestic engine". That domestic engine was a WS-10 variant, not the WS-15.

Edit 2: They got their claim about the J-20 getting WS-15s by 2019 from this source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I hope people are starting to see a pattern.

 

[Totoro]

Around 2030, China could have 500 J20B and 100 J20 and J20A stealth fighters. The US would have 185 F22 and perhaps 1500 F35s.

Accuracy of such projections notwithstanding, the above is an example of not a good course of events for chinese air forces. Even though it also assumes by far the biggest influx of newly produced planes in decades. That's 700 j20 produced in 13 years. Almost 54 a year. Plus J10, J16, J15, H6 and/or some of their successors. For a total of easily over 100 a year.

And still, when it comes to fifth generation planes, it's not a number that matches US' figures, as in the above speculation they've produced 100 f35 per year. Plus a few more squadrons of F18E, perhaps a few squadrons of next gen fighter in very late 2020s and 50+ B21s. Overall totals might be similar, 110 or so per year, but US's include more of the new tech planes.

And, on a different note - just what would induction rates of 100 new planes for chinese air forces each year mean? They've flown even their J7 and J8 close to 30 years. While some su27 have been retired after just 25 years, average age of the fleet does seem to be 30 or more.

So with 100 planes a year, and many, many years in production so US is caught up with - does that mean china would be planning for a 50% increase in its air forces? Will it be operating 3000 combat planes 30 years from now? Even today, induction rates for its forces are 80 or so combat planes per year. Would that mean they're already expanding and going for at least 2400 plane fleet in next 25 years?

J20 production may skyrocket and rest of the production will get smaller, or if rest of the production remains the same then we'll be looking at a drastic increase in overall number of chinese planes. Or J20 will be a semi niche product (20-ish planes per year) and chinese air forces won't be expanding much
beyond current numbers.

 

[Iron Man]

Accuracy of such projections notwithstanding, the above is an example of not a good course of events for chinese air forces. Even though it also assumes by far the biggest influx of newly produced planes in decades. That's 700 j20 produced in 13 years. Almost 54 a year. Plus J10, J16, J15, H6 and/or some of their successors. For a total of easily over 100 a year.

And still, when it comes to fifth generation planes, it's not a number that matches US' figures, as in the above speculation they've produced 100 f35 per year. Plus a few more squadrons of F18E, perhaps a few squadrons of next gen fighter in very late 2020s and 50+ B21s. Overall totals might be similar, 110 or so per year, but US's include more of the new tech planes.

And, on a different note - just what would induction rates of 100 new planes for chinese air forces each year mean? They've flown even their J7 and J8 close to 30 years. While some su27 have been retired after just 25 years, average age of the fleet does seem to be 30 or more.

So with 100 planes a year, and many, many years in production so US is caught up with - does that mean china would be planning for a 50% increase in its air forces? Will it be operating 3000 combat planes 30 years from now? Even today, induction rates for its forces are 80 or so combat planes per year. Would that mean they're already expanding and going for at least 2400 plane fleet in next 25 years?

J20 production may skyrocket and rest of the production will get smaller, or if rest of the production remains the same then we'll be looking at a drastic increase in overall number of chinese planes. Or J20 will be a semi niche product (20-ish planes per year) and chinese air forces won't be expanding much
beyond current numbers.

These numbers fail to take into account that the US military must plan for both Pacific and Atlantic theaters. Even with the greater share in the Pacific (i.e. "60/40"), that's still 111 F-22s and ~900 F-35s. Not only that, China has home field advantage with its radars, SAMs, UAVs, AEW/C aircraft and various 4th generation fighters that can be cued in by fighter and ground-based anti-stealth radar while the USAF and USN have to operate under the tyranny of distance and limited basing capability. It's not like the US can decide all of a sudden it's going to base all of its Pacific fighters in Guam, Korea and Japan when before they were also based in Hawaii, Alaska, and the Western states.

 

[latenlazy]

Accuracy of such projections notwithstanding, the above is an example of not a good course of events for chinese air forces. Even though it also assumes by far the biggest influx of newly produced planes in decades. That's 700 j20 produced in 13 years. Almost 54 a year. Plus J10, J16, J15, H6 and/or some of their successors. For a total of easily over 100 a year.

And still, when it comes to fifth generation planes, it's not a number that matches US' figures, as in the above speculation they've produced 100 f35 per year. Plus a few more squadrons of F18E, perhaps a few squadrons of next gen fighter in very late 2020s and 50+ B21s. Overall totals might be similar, 110 or so per year, but US's include more of the new tech planes.

And, on a different note - just what would induction rates of 100 new planes for chinese air forces each year mean? They've flown even their J7 and J8 close to 30 years. While some su27 have been retired after just 25 years, average age of the fleet does seem to be 30 or more.

So with 100 planes a year, and many, many years in production so US is caught up with - does that mean china would be planning for a 50% increase in its air forces? Will it be operating 3000 combat planes 30 years from now? Even today, induction rates for its forces are 80 or so combat planes per year. Would that mean they're already expanding and going for at least 2400 plane fleet in next 25 years?

J20 production may skyrocket and rest of the production will get smaller, or if rest of the production remains the same then we'll be looking at a drastic increase in overall number of chinese planes. Or J20 will be a semi niche product (20-ish planes per year) and chinese air forces won't be expanding much
beyond current numbers.

*Assuming* that that 700 number is right (BIIIGGGG if), another possibility is that China mag begin mass production of the J-20's successor before the J-20 has finished its run. Yet another possibility is that the J-31 will eventually get picked up by the PLAAF to cover the quantity side of the equation. Lots of speculation in all this though. I wouldn't take the number in the article to heart.

 

[latenlazy]

These numbers fail to take into account that the US military must plan for both Pacific and Atlantic theaters. Even with the greater share in the Pacific (i.e. "60/40"), that's still 111 F-22s and ~900 F-35s. Not only that, China has home field advantage with its radars, SAMs, UAVs, AEW/C aircraft and various 4th generation fighters that can be cued in by fighter and ground-based anti-stealth radar while the USAF and USN have to operate under the tyranny of distance and limited basing capability. It's not like the US can decide all of a sudden it's going to base all of its Pacific fighters in Guam, Korea and Japan when before they were also based in Hawaii, Alaska, and the Western states.

Flipside is if there's no drastic alteration in the balance of alliances within the Pacific China also needs to be able to contend with several other countries in addition to the US, and while most of these countries already have outdated fleets that condition is unlikely to persist indefinitely (especially Japan).

 

[AndrewS]

Accuracy of such projections notwithstanding, the above is an example of not a good course of events for chinese air forces. Even though it also assumes by far the biggest influx of newly produced planes in decades. That's 700 j20 produced in 13 years. Almost 54 a year. Plus J10, J16, J15, H6 and/or some of their successors. For a total of easily over 100 a year.

And still, when it comes to fifth generation planes, it's not a number that matches US' figures, as in the above speculation they've produced 100 f35 per year. Plus a few more squadrons of F18E, perhaps a few squadrons of next gen fighter in very late 2020s and 50+ B21s. Overall totals might be similar, 110 or so per year, but US's include more of the new tech planes.

And, on a different note - just what would induction rates of 100 new planes for chinese air forces each year mean? They've flown even their J7 and J8 close to 30 years. While some su27 have been retired after just 25 years, average age of the fleet does seem to be 30 or more.

So with 100 planes a year, and many, many years in production so US is caught up with - does that mean china would be planning for a 50% increase in its air forces? Will it be operating 3000 combat planes 30 years from now? Even today, induction rates for its forces are 80 or so combat planes per year. Would that mean they're already expanding and going for at least 2400 plane fleet in next 25 years?

J20 production may skyrocket and rest of the production will get smaller, or if rest of the production remains the same then we'll be looking at a drastic increase in overall number of chinese planes. Or J20 will be a semi niche product (20-ish planes per year) and chinese air forces won't be expanding much
beyond current numbers.

Isn't China inducting about 100 new aircraft every year anyway?

The last time I looked, that was the total comprised of J-10, J-11/J-16/J-15, JH-7, H-6

And in 25 years time, how much military spending will the Chinese economy be supporting?

Below is what has already happened and what could happen.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!