J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[latenlazy]

I do agree with you, but I also think that such "transformative" systems have been introduced to the PLA in the past (even recent past depending on how one sees it), such as having their first BVR fighter, first AEW&C etc, all of which I expected would've been followed by the same kind of methodical assessment you described for the introduction of their first 5th gen fighters as well.

I’m not talking about the methodogical approach itself being new, but the effect the J-20 is having.

 

[Blitzo]

I’m not talking about the methodogical approach itself being unique, but the effect the J-20 is having being unique.

But I think you were saying J-20's effect is that it's causing the PLA to be very methodical and to vigorously study and assess J-20 for ways to come up with new tactics and strategies and concepts?

I'm saying that introducing new systems in the past like BVR capable fighters, AEW&C etc would've had a similar effect for their time period, or rather for their generation.


I do get where you're coming from, as the USAF described a similar "leap" when F-22s first entered service. I'm just not sure if the introduction of J-20 or 5th generation fighters initially should be seen as a more substantial leap than what some 4th generation capabilities offered when they were first introduced. Perhaps it's because 5th generation fighters bring so much more onto the table on a single platform at once compared to 4th generation..

 

[AndrewS]

This can also be an assessment, of how much opposing counterstealth assets can a few 5th gens tie down, even when the 5th gens are at WVR. The cost advantage of the 5th gens is overwhelming, whether considering the disproportionate kill ratios at BVR or the havoc delivered at WVR.

I think counter-stealth will be problematic if based on current AEWC. They just don't have enough detection range, when compared to the range of incoming AAMs (150km+) launched by an F-22 or J-20.

The exception being possible Divine Eagle type aircraft which are flying really high.

Theese have better geometry to look down at less stealthy aircraft upper surfaces and the high altitude means they may be beyond range or manoeuvrability of incoming AAMs.

 

[latenlazy]

But I think you were saying J-20's effect is that it's causing the PLA to be very methodical and to vigorously study and assess J-20 for ways to come up with new tactics and strategies and concepts?

I’m just saying that we might see even more methodical testing than what was typical because the J-20 could be uprooting entire systems of established thoughts and concepts that were built on those previous tests. I’m not questioning the rigor of previous testing and development, just noting that the impact of the platform may lead to more extensive and broad based testing than with the introduction of other new platforms from the past. The essence of my point is the J-20 might end up forcing a total rethinking from the ground up in ways that were unexpected, a fundamental unanticipated sea change if you will. It’s not to say that previous introductions of major platforms didn’t also have fundamental impacts, but that those effects were more expected and intended than what we’re seeing with the J-20, and that evasion of expectations will have more significant and meaningful implications than what we saw before.

 

[Blitzo]

I’m just saying that we might see even more methodical testing than what was typical because the J-20 could be uprooting entire systems of established thoughts and concepts that were built on those previous tests. I’m not questioning the rigor of previous testing and development, just noting that the impact of the platform may lead to more extensive and broad based testing than with the introduction of other new platforms from the past. The essence of my point is the J-20 might end up forcing a total rethinking from the ground up in ways that were unexpected, a fundamental unanticipated sea change if you will. It’s not to say that previous introductions of major platforms didn’t also have fundamental impacts, but that those effects were more expected and intended than what we’re seeing with the J-20, and that evasion of expectations will have more significant and meaningful implications than what we saw before.

I suppose this is a bit of an academic question because we don't really know how much of an impact J-20 will end up having nor do we know how much of an impact new capabilities like BVR, AEWC etc had for the PLAAF at the time they were introduced.

But I certainly do agree that J-20/5th gen introduction will have a significant impact on PLA air combat doctrine as a whole.

 

[latenlazy]

I think counter-stealth will be problematic if based on current AEWC. They just don't have enough detection range, when compared to the range of incoming AAMs (150km+) launched by an F-22 or J-20.

The exception being possible Divine Eagle type aircraft which are flying really high.

Theese have better geometry to look down at less stealthy aircraft upper surfaces and the high altitude means they may be beyond range or manoeuvrability of incoming AAMs.

I suspect HALE UAV based radars will be the next step up and perhaps even obsolete traditional AEWCs. They may be able to avoid the vulnerabilities that AWECs currently have in a way that would resist immediately available countermeasures, or even expand on what’s possible with airborne radars.

I suppose this is a bit of an academic question because we don't really know how much of an impact J-20 will end up having nor do we know how much of an impact new capabilities like BVR, AEWC etc had for the PLAAF at the time they were introduced.

But I certainly do agree that J-20/5th gen introduction will have a significant impact on PLA air combat doctrine as a whole.

Yes, very much an academic question, but the reason I bring it up is because I think it will have significant implications on operational and technological development outside of academic considerations. An illustration of this thinking is that it could alter the direction we see the PLA taking from where we might have projected, say, five years ago (and since people like you or I have been at this hobby for at least a decade or more now I feel pretty comfortable saying that our forecasting has to date been pretty on the mark). A part of my motivation for drawing these observations is to try to push us a bit to maybe start rethinking the fundamentals and principles that have worked so well for our ability to read modern Chinese military development thus far. The previous rounds of technological upgrade in maybe the last two decades definitely bolstered and significantly advanced the PLA’s capabilities, but I don’t remember anything creating the kind of shock to doctrine that the J-20 seems to be achieving right now.

 

[Blitzo]

Yes, very much an academic question, but the reason I bring it up is because I think it will have significant implications on operational and technological development outside of academic considerations. An illustration of this thinking is that it could alter the direction we see the PLA taking from where we might have projected, say, five years ago (and since people like you or I have been at this hobby for at least a decade or more now I feel pretty comfortable saying that our forecasting has to date been pretty on the mark). A part of my rationale for drawing these observations is to try to push us a bit to maybe start rethinking the fundamentals and principles that have worked so well for our ability to read modern Chinese military development thus far. The previous rounds of technological upgrade in maybe the last two decades definitely bolstered and significantly advanced the PLA’s capabilities, but I don’t remember anything creating the kind of shock to doctrine that the J-20 seems to be achieving right now.

Maybe, but I wasn't really big into PLA watching at the time and the same conduits for information didn't really exist back then when things like BVR and AEWC were introduced to compare.

That said I'm sure that having had time to assess 5th gen fighters themselves would've altered some of their procurement plans at least. I would have been interested to know what their plans for acquiring 5th gen fighters would've been prior to assess J-20 and how much it has or may continue to change in the immediate future. E.g.: will they build more J-20s than previously projected, will they accelerate a medium weight 5th gen project etc.

Also interesting will be how it impacts AEW&C and ISR platforms. I'm of the belief that future AEW&C and ISR platforms will be very distributed in nature i.e.: among multiple low observable and very low observable UAVs operating in a forward manner with large manned traditional platforms operating much further back.

 

[latenlazy]

Maybe, but I wasn't really big into PLA watching at the time and the same conduits for information didn't really exist back then when things like BVR and AEWC were introduced to compare.

That said I'm sure that having had time to assess 5th gen fighters themselves would've altered some of their procurement plans at least. I would have been interested to know what their plans for acquiring 5th gen fighters would've been prior to assess J-20 and how much it has or may continue to change in the immediate future. E.g.: will they build more J-20s than previously projected, will they accelerate a medium weight 5th gen project etc.

Also interesting will be how it impacts AEW&C and ISR platforms. I'm of the belief that future AEW&C and ISR platforms will be very distributed in nature i.e.: among multiple low observable and very low observable UAVs operating in a forward manner with large manned traditional platforms operating much further back.

Distributed AEW, EW, and ISR is precisely what I’m thinking when I think HALE UAVs greatly expanding on current AEW capabilities. If you get a whole network of long endurance high altitude UAVs acting as sensor nodes in a wide ranging distributed network not only will you be able to greatly expand your resolution, range, and tracking power, but you’d dramatically increase persistence and resilience. Each node could use lower power radar to avoid lighting up passive sensors as getting longer range won’t require more powerful transmission from a single array, and taking down one node wouldn’t only fail to take down long range sensing and tracking capability but could actually allow the rest of the network to interpolate the location of the aggressor much more quickly and confidently. You would need a greater number of sorties for the larger number of planes, but these smaller sorties would be much quicker and more responsive, and the logistical burden of each sortie would be much smaller than with a large AEW plane. You’d also be able to cut down the burdens on manpower needed to operate this capability, especially as AI automation matures. I’m highly skeptical that current AEWs present sufficient threat to stealth capabilities, but if there is a scenario where stealth can be sufficiently neutralized my thinking is that it would actually be with distributed HALE UAVs. This is all off topic though.

Specifically bringing back discussion to the J-20, I’m also interested in seeing whether these recent exercises change thinking about procurement, but perhaps tentativeness on the original procurement plan for 5th generation fighters is precisely why the J-31 hasn’t been canned just yet. If this is right, then perhaps we should be expecting the J-31 to be picked up by the PLAAF.

Edit: Also, just figured out the word I wanted to use when I argue the J-20’s induction process may turn out to be more significant than with other new platforms from the past. The word is “transformative”. That doesn’t mean precious new platforms were, but this one may be more so at the deeper roots than others.

 

[Blitzo]

Distributed AEW, EW, and ISR is precisely what I’m thinking when I think HALE UAVs greatly expanding on current AEW capabilities. If you get a whole network of long endurance high altitude UAVs acting as sensor nodes in a wide ranging distributed network not only will you be able to greatly expand your resolution, range, and tracking power, but you’d dramatically increase persistence and resilience. Each node could use lower power radar to avoid lighting up passive sensors as getting longer range won’t require more powerful transmission from a single array, and taking down one node wouldn’t only fail to take down long range sensing and tracking capability but could actually allow the rest of the network to interpolate the location of the aggressor much more quickly and confidently. You would need a greater number of sorties for the larger number of planes, but these smaller sorties would be much quicker and more responsive, and the logistical burden of each sortie would be much smaller than with a large AEW plane. You’d also be able to cut down the burdens on manpower needed to operate this capability, especially as AI automation matures. I’m highly skeptical that current AEWs present sufficient threat to stealth capabilities, but if there is a scenario where stealth can be sufficiently neutralized my thinking is that it would actually be with distributed HALE UAVs. This is all off topic though.

I think distributed AEW, EW and ISR will also present a solution to the issue of "high demand low density" that those large manned force multipliers face, as well as being very vulnerable high value targets which will end up tying air combat assets to defend them as well as not being willing to deploy them where they are needed for fear of losing them. And of course if they are lost then you end up losing a big chunk of your AEWC capability too.

A distributed fleet made of combined manned and unmanned aircraft will allow the UAVs to operate more forward where they are needed while also being much less expensive and being more "expendable" than a manned AEWC platform both in terms of cost and in terms of the proportion of one's AEWC capability that is lost if a AEWC UAV is shot down.

In that sense I am quite impressed by the PLA's Divine Eagle UAV as it may end up being one of the world's first serious attempt at a distributed unmanned AEWC system intended for a future air combat scenario populated by stealth fighters.

Specifically bringing back discussion to the J-20, I’m also interested in seeing whether these recent exercises change thinking about procurement, but perhaps tentativeness on the original procurement plan for 5th generation fighters is precisely why the J-31 hasn’t been canned just yet. If this is right, then perhaps we should be expecting the J-31 to be picked up by the PLAAF.

I suspect FC-31 hasn't yet been canned because it/a derivative is also still in the running for the naval fighter contest. Of course, FC-31 may still be in the running for a land based medium weight 5th gen fighter as well, and it would be interesting to know what the PLA's intentions are in that weight class.

Edit: Also, just figured out the word I wanted to use when I argue the J-20’s induction process may turn out to be more significant than with other new platforms from the past. The word is “transformative”. That doesn’t mean precious new platforms were, but this one may be more so at the deeper roots than others.

Again, I don't disagree, but it's hard to assess without knowing how deep the induction of past new capabilities were at the time vs J-20 now.

 

[latenlazy]

I think distributed AEW, EW and ISR will also present a solution to the issue of "high demand low density" that those large manned force multipliers face, as well as being very vulnerable high value targets which will end up tying air combat assets to defend them as well as not being willing to deploy them where they are needed for fear of losing them. And of course if they are lost then you end up losing a big chunk of your AEWC capability too.

A distributed fleet made of combined manned and unmanned aircraft will allow the UAVs to operate more forward where they are needed while also being much less expensive and being more "expendable" than a manned AEWC platform both in terms of cost and in terms of the proportion of one's AEWC capability that is lost if a AEWC UAV is shot down.

In that sense I am quite impressed by the PLA's Divine Eagle UAV as it may end up being one of the world's first serious attempt at a distributed unmanned AEWC system intended for a future air combat scenario populated by stealth fighters.

Divine Eagle and whatever may evolve from it could turn out to be one of the most significant and transformative technologies most people (beltway military “experts” included here) aren’t paying attention to right now. That sort of technology could fundamentally alter aerial warfare in ways even more profound than stealth fighters. The full potential of this technology would be like putting up an entire IADS in the sky, a sensor wall in the air achieving total area denial in a forward projected airspace.

I suspect FC-31 hasn't yet been canned because it/a derivative is also still in the running for the naval fighter contest. Of course, FC-31 may still be in the running for a land based medium weight 5th gen fighter as well, and it would be interesting to know what the PLA's intentions are in that weight class.

Absolutely. There are a lot of spurious signals we have to untangle and parse here, but I’m reaching a point where I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the PLAAF also pick up the J-31. This is now something on my personal list of things to watch for, specifically because of these stories we’re now hearing about the J-20’s performance.

Again, I don't disagree, but it's hard to assess without knowing how deep the induction of past new capabilities were at the time vs J-20 now.

Criticizing me on rigour is entirely fair here. This is more a gut feeling right now on my part. To reiterate (sorry if I’m being repetitive!), I’m just making some noise because it’s something I feel like we should start giving more thought and attention to as we watch the J-20 and its usage in the PLAAF mature and evolve. That’s really all I wanted to get at.