J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

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Brumby

Major
That fleet of UCAV controlled by F-35 is not capable of air-to-air combat. What we are talking about is backseater pilot an UAV and actively engage enemy aircraft even in dogfight. That mean when his aircraft turning his UAV might be diving or doing a cobra.
In this aircraft and UAV teaming idea including engaging the UAV in dog fights, what is the operational rationale of having a backseat pilot? Basic autonomous system design with man-machine collaboration is to extend human capabilities and not as a replacement. This is besides risk of latency, degradation of communications in ECM conditions, line of sight limitation and uneven pairing between VLO aircraft and non VLO UAV.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
What's the source of this estimation ???
some chinese publication.

大大提升了歼20 的综合作战能力。按现在碳纤维复合材料的产能规模算,如果每架歼20用30%的碳纤维复合材料部件(约合5吨),那么中复神鹰年产100吨复合材料,可以 支持歼20每年生产至少20架。
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Thanks, but following this report "a minimum of 20 J-20 per year" ... IMO completely impossible. CAC barely manages to build 20-30 J-10 per year so this would mean not only a jump from 4 J-20 per year as in 2014 (a factor 4) and also to manufacture simultaneously the J-10s at high rate.

Just my 2 cents.
 

jobjed

Captain
some chinese publication.

大大提升了歼20 的综合作战能力。按现在碳纤维复合材料的产能规模算,如果每架歼20用30%的碳纤维复合材料部件(约合5吨),那么中复神鹰年产100吨复合材料,可以 支持歼20每年生产至少20架。

You're misinterpreting the statement. It's not saying "twenty J-20s will be produced per year", it's saying that the 100 tonne annual carbon-fibre-composite production can support the production of twenty J-20s annually, but that doesn't necessarily mean twenty J-20s will be produced annually.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Why not just use AWACs to control drones remotely?

Firstly, it doesn't have to be a choice, you can quite happily have both.

However, even if you do use AWACS or dedicated airborne drone controllers, having a twin seat J20 that can also pilot drones would still be a massive advantage.

Lag and vulnerability would be the key differences.

In air to air combat, split seconds can be the difference between victory or defeat. That means you want to keep the distance between drone and controller as close as feasible, and ideally within line of sight so you don't need to rely on satellite relays, which both adds lag, and also introduces potential bandwidth bottlenecks, not to mention presenting systematic weak points an opponent could target to render your entire drone fleet useless using ASAT weapons.

With an AWACS, you have the dilemma of having to trade off between lag and security.

The AWACS or even separate, dedicated airborne control drone centre would also be high value targets that the enemy would be willing to pay a steep price to kill, since doing so would render a large number of drones useless.

Stealth fighters also make it that much harder to effectively protect your AWACS.

A twin seat J20 would at worse only have marginally worse kinetic performance compared to the baseline J20, but would still be an extremely deadly air dominance fighter.

Being stealthy, they are inherently far harder to detect and engage by the enemy compared to an AWACS, and given the expected high performance of the jet, there is little guarantee any potential adversary fighter could get the better of it even if they were able to bring the J20 to battle.

And even if the enemy can find a J20S, bring it to battle and shoot it down, they are at best only taking one drone out of the fight.

The second part of vulnerability comes in the form of jamming. The further the distance, the weaker the signal, and the more susceptible that signal is to being jammed.

The direction the signals are traveling in can also be significant in determining how effective that jamming is.

In a very simplistic example, say you have one scenario where the fighter is controlled by a friendly fighter in LOS with it flying a couple hundred miles behind the UAV, compared to an example where the same UAV is being controlled by an AWACS a thousand miles away using a satellite relay.

Now, it would be possible for an enemy to either try and blanket jam your communications relay satellite, since they would be able to detect and pinpoint it, and/or, they can direct jamming signals downwards, targeting your UAV by either using their own satellites to emit/retransmit jamming signals or bouncing signals using the atmosphere.

The point is, the enemy jamming signals would either be able to brute force overload your satellite receivers, and/or be coming from the same direction as your own command signals to your UAV, thereby massively complicating your counter jamming operations.

If you have a fighter tailing the drone and commanding it, the command signal is going to be coming from directly behind it, and it would be far harder, if not impossible, for your enemy to be able to get jamming signals to reach your drone from that vector. That immediately gives your drone a massive counter jamming advantage as it can perform simple directional analysis on incoming signals and effectively ignore anything not coming from the direction of its controller. Depending on the design, it could potentially even position its receiver antenna such that it doesn't even 'hear' much of the enemy jamming signals to start with.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Firstly, it doesn't have to be a choice, you can quite happily have both.

However, even if you do use AWACS or dedicated airborne drone controllers, having a twin seat J20 that can also pilot drones would still be a massive advantage.

Lag and vulnerability would be the key differences.

In air to air combat, split seconds can be the difference between victory or defeat. That means you want to keep the distance between drone and controller as close as feasible, and ideally within line of sight so you don't need to rely on satellite relays, which both adds lag, and also introduces potential bandwidth bottlenecks, not to mention presenting systematic weak points an opponent could target to render your entire drone fleet useless using ASAT weapons.

With an AWACS, you have the dilemma of having to trade off between lag and security.

The AWACS or even separate, dedicated airborne control drone centre would also be high value targets that the enemy would be willing to pay a steep price to kill, since doing so would render a large number of drones useless.

Stealth fighters also make it that much harder to effectively protect your AWACS.

A twin seat J20 would at worse only have marginally worse kinetic performance compared to the baseline J20, but would still be an extremely deadly air dominance fighter.

Being stealthy, they are inherently far harder to detect and engage by the enemy compared to an AWACS, and given the expected high performance of the jet, there is little guarantee any potential adversary fighter could get the better of it even if they were able to bring the J20 to battle.

And even if the enemy can find a J20S, bring it to battle and shoot it down, they are at best only taking one drone out of the fight.

The second part of vulnerability comes in the form of jamming. The further the distance, the weaker the signal, and the more susceptible that signal is to being jammed.

The direction the signals are traveling in can also be significant in determining how effective that jamming is.

In a very simplistic example, say you have one scenario where the fighter is controlled by a friendly fighter in LOS with it flying a couple hundred miles behind the UAV, compared to an example where the same UAV is being controlled by an AWACS a thousand miles away using a satellite relay.

Now, it would be possible for an enemy to either try and blanket jam your communications relay satellite, since they would be able to detect and pinpoint it, and/or, they can direct jamming signals downwards, targeting your UAV by either using their own satellites to emit/retransmit jamming signals or bouncing signals using the atmosphere.

The point is, the enemy jamming signals would either be able to brute force overload your satellite receivers, and/or be coming from the same direction as your own command signals to your UAV, thereby massively complicating your counter jamming operations.

If you have a fighter tailing the drone and commanding it, the command signal is going to be coming from directly behind it, and it would be far harder, if not impossible, for your enemy to be able to get jamming signals to reach your drone from that vector. That immediately gives your drone a massive counter jamming advantage as it can perform simple directional analysis on incoming signals and effectively ignore anything not coming from the direction of its controller. Depending on the design, it could potentially even position its receiver antenna such that it doesn't even 'hear' much of the enemy jamming signals to start with.

Now Wolfie?? I'm behind the times Bub, but I just don't see this whole scenario, and no offense. I just don't think any WSO is gonna be doing anything like flying a drone, coordinating UCAVs??? maybe, flying an A2A aircraft against an OP-For??? Nah!
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Now Wolfie?? I'm behind the times Bub, but I just don't see this whole scenario, and no offense. I just don't think any WSO is gonna be doing anything like flying a drone, coordinating UCAVs??? maybe, flying an A2A aircraft against an OP-For??? Nah!

I lean towards AFB's reasoning as well. Drones will either be flown remotely far away in a secure environment or it will be flown by AI down the road for many reasons.

Line of sight comms would pose a severe security risk to the entire fleet of drones being piloted. If the controller is taken out that means the drones will too. Flying a drone is hard enough but to fly it while you youself is 'up there' presents enormous workload that would tax even the most battle hardend wizzo or rio. How is the UCAV pilot any effective if his bird has a hostile on her tail? or trying to fly another plane while your own is pulling 8 Gs or doing a yo-yo?

latency and lagging is not big deal. radio signals travel at the speed of light! whether you're 1000 miles away or 10 it's so minute it's negligible.

Last but not least I have not heard of anything in the works about piloting combat drones from another fast mover. If this is a viable solution people much much smarter than us would've thought this up or at least in some sort of developmental stage ;)
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The whole point of using a stealth fighter like the J20 is so that it can pick and choose when to get invovled directly itself, rather than have that decision forced upon it by an adversary.

As for lag, well it's not the speed the signal travels at that causes issues, it's when you loose line of sight and has to rely on a 3rd party relay, like a satellite.

The problem with extended range control isn't with the distance the radio signals need to cover, but with line of sight. Specially, because control stations so far away cannot have directly line of sight on the UAV, so need to rely on satellites to relay both sensory data from the UAV,mane commands to it. The problem faced is one of bandwidth and server speeds bottlenecks. Encryption protocols would further burden the satellite and add more delays.

To eliminate that lag, you either need to put giant server satellites in orbit that could only handle a handful of UAVs logging on at the same time, or you get your controller within direct line of sight of your UAVs so you can cut the entire relay step out of the command chain.

To bring your controller closer to the action would correspondingly raise the risks they face.

That's why backseating the controller in a 5th gen fighter is important (as opposed to using AWACS or legacy fighters) - the stealthy nature of the fighter will allow it to get close enough to effectively control the UAVs while still able to avoid being detected by enemy sensors.

As for why this isn't in development, well firstly, just because it's not publically disclosed does not necessarily mean militaries are not taking serious looks at such ideas and investing in developing them.

Realistically speaking, only America and China has the resources and technology to even attempt to introduce air combat UCAVs within the next decade or two. Everyone else can be pretty much ignored as they just don't have the means to play at this table.

There is also the issue of motivation to consider.

US air force branches are so dominant in their positions that gaining air superiority really is considered a forgone conclusion for them (or at least that's how they feel).

That is why US air forces have focused far more of their attention and resources into studying how to make best use of the air dominance that they expect to achieve almost by default.

That's why almost all operational or in development western UCAVs are exclusively ground attack oriented. But even those UCAV programmes are facing fierce push back from hardcore supporters of manned air combat.

Take the recent USN decision to effectively can their promising naval strike UCAV programme and instead turn them into tankers.

One would have to be exceptionally naive or in deep denial to rule out any possibility that that decision was at least partially politically motivated to avoid creating a potential partial competitor to the F35 joint strike fighter, and thereby giving future American leaders a viable alternative to turn to rather than having to swallow any and all future cost overruns and delays with the F35.

One does not have to look back far or hard to find all manner of frankly mind bogglingly poor strategic choices, which are usually forced through by politicians with zero military background or understanding, but pockets full of cash, sorry, campaign contributions, from special interest groups.

With that track record of blatant political meddling and potential profiteering at the expense of good, sound military reasoning/needs and strategic interests, just because the US military is not embracing something can no longer be reliably taken as an indication that that concept doesn't have merit worth at least examining.

China, OTOH, is far less 'assured' that they can win air superiority in any future major conflict scenario. That means that not only are they focusing the lion share of their efforts and resources on trying to achieve air superiority; they also have a track record of being more open to embracing new concepts and technologies, and are especially keen on 'short cut' approaches that would allow them to gain ground or even steal a march on the US.

They have already displaced at least one UCAV conceptual model that looks to be air to air oriented.

Given the state of current global cutting edge AI and computer technology development, the only way an air to air UCAV could be operationally viable in the next decade or two is if it was being directly controlled by a human pilot remotely.

You and others are correct in pointing out that this is no an ideal approach to air combat UCAVs.

That's likely one of the main reasons the US hasn't seriously considered a similar programme, since they are holding out for truly automatous air combat UCAVs that can outfly and outfight human pilots without needing any direct human inputs.

However, barring some totally game changing break throughs, such AI capabilities are still at least a decade away if not further off. The cynical part of me cannot help but suspect at least part of the reason many key US leaders are so set on 'doing this right' is precisely because it's such a long way off from fruition if you do it that way.

That field of resource is very well known with due resources being devoted to it.

However, in the meantime, I think this method could give air forces (at least those with the possibility of building twin seat 5th stealth fighters) a real solid shot at introducing post-human levels of combat aircraft performance years if not decades before true air combat AI controlled UCAVs are viable, and could probably speed up development of their true AI versions of such fighters if they take a hybrid approach to control.

By that I mean having as advanced an AI as could be developed in the UCAV, that is supplemented by direct, real time decision making from a human controller.

The human pilot focuses on strategy, tactics and timing, the kind of intangible creative qualities computer AI struggle most to achieve, while the AI focuses on the technical challenges to getting their airframe to behave as the pilot demands.

In a way, that's what modern FBW is kinda of about and doing already, so it's not that far fetched.
 
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