J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread IV (Closed to posting)

[texx1]

As I had said I am not implying that there is any direct connection between A and B but there are parallels like how High speed rail development had came to a screeching halt when the top dog of the rail ministry had been charged and latter convicted of corruption.
Although I am not really keen on details I also find various development projects like the ARJ-21 that came to a screeching stop strange as well. She made here maiden flight six years ago in 2008 and yet she is still claimed to be under development. Although I understand that there are major set backs in developing a passenger jet, she was basically based on proven technology and did not really gamble on new technology so what is creating the delay?

Delays in ARJ-21 have nothing to do with corruption. Using your implied logic, any big projects in China that are on schedule and proceeding accordingly is due to having corrupted managers and officials diverting project funds into their own pockets. I guess you think China is so corrupted that the country just screeches to a halt without corruption. ARJ-21 is delayed due to weight problem, engine troubles and certification issues. Those problems are to be expected considering China has limited experience with designing and developing passage jets domestically.

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[Blackstone]

If what happened in high speed rail is something to go by then we are all in for a treat

Yes, but how many miles of those pretty rails have design flaws that caused the

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? I have to admit whenever I step on a Chinese jetliner or train, the back of my mind lets out a silent prayer that the inspector on my ride wasn't paid to overlook problems on that vehicle. I know it's not just to feel that way, but corruption is legend in China and until Xi Jinping gets it under control, people have legitimate reasons for doubt.

 

[texx1]

He's absolutely accurate here gentlemen, and this will no doubt slow things down in the PRC, as many of the wealthy individuals are being targeted by the Govt. in an unprecedented crack down on personal wealth. The Paranoia of the best and the brightest will cause them to "pull back", he is also intellectually honest, by admitting that he, nor I, nor you, will be able to establish/dismiss a direct connection to the J-20/J-31 programs.

As the Govt continues to crack down on those who have been sharing all these lovely photos and snippets of information, we must also realize that those officials who have done well financially are being closely scrutinized by Party Officials, this is a very sad development, as it is no doubt hindering the flow of information, and very likely the motivation to put it out there intellectually, as the efforts of individuals to "create", is also coming under scrutiny. I have NO PROOF of any of this, it is purely observation of a half century of the PRCs history.

This seems to have had a tangible effect on the J-20 testing and production????? This aircraft was the pride of the PRC when Xi took office, and its testing/production had been incredibly open and visible to the public as well as the international community as evidenced by the first flight during Gates visit.

So rather than attacking Sam, show us evidence to contradict our concern, lets see some information/pictures that tell me I'm all wet, I hope I'm wrong, but I am very concerned. The public display off this aircraft testing/flying was the most hopeful sign I had ever observed that the PRC was stepping into the lime-light in a good and positive "act of faith"???

I say this with the greatest amount of respect for you. I like you and many other members here would love to see more pictures of J-20 flying, doing crazy maneuverers, launching PL-12s from its belly. But we can't dictate how PRC chooses to proceed with the project. If they wanted to do it out of sight, it's their prerogative. There is nothing we can do but hope they release more photos. And not releasing photos is not evidence that J-20 has run into some kind of trouble as the absence of photos only means the government has stop releasing photos.

To imply the crackdown on corruption has affected top military projects in a negative way without any actual evidences, however is really flimsy logic. One can even consider that proportion to be a disgusting anti-china conspiracy.

Also, I believe the openness of J-20 project in the last few year is an exception rather than the rule in a country where military developments have always taken place in secret. Maybe, China decided that the openness campaign didn't pay enough dividend in diplomatic relations so now they just go back to their old ways.

 

[AssassinsMace]

There's an odd logic going on. Why would exposure of corruption hit military programs? If corruption were happening, the J-20 program has been well underway in spite of corruption. So if corruption is exposed, isn't it a plus because it means more money. China's corruption is not like in the Philippines or Vietnam where it actually holds down development. There was some study on comparative development around the world and it said what took Great Britain and the US to do in 60 years took China only 12. If that's corruption, it's the best kind. You think Japan is immune to corruption. Cronyism is corruption and it's worse in Japan more than China. You know what the difference is between corruption in the US and Japan against China? In the US and Japan it has been legalized so it doesn't look like corruption under their standards. No one was arrested and convicted for the 2008 financial crisis. Why? Corruption. Corruption isn't unique. If anyone thinks the US came out of the 2008 financial crisis all right, then you're okay with corruption. And China's corruption is probably the best kind of corruption given the massive and fast growth in such a short period of time.

 

[foxmulder_ms]

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[Air Force Brat]

One of the Chinese aircraft industry's major weaknesses is in engines, especially for larger aircraft, also specifically the ARJ-21 is aimed at a very competitive market segment, the first flight coincided with the severe downturn in the global economy which even if mitigated still affects China to this day, and it is also a product which has to meet high international standards and regulations. So that project's delay, or even virtual cancellation, is most likely due to all these known primary factors rather than possible unreported corruption.

The high speed rail project is yet another totally different animal as that is a civilian national showcase capital investment project with plans to be scaled up so there is the potential for much more severe and widespread consequences if any corruption that is found is not strongly dealt with and in a public manner.

Any way you look at it they are not examples of why there is silence on the J-20 and certainly not because of corruption. It simply sucks to be China military watchers as long as their information leakage crackdown continues.

I agree, I did NOT mention corruption, though I loath corruption and all of its ugliness and theft.... I did mention that the govt, seems to be cracking down on individuals/corporations that have been successful, making money and a profit is NOT corruption, but there are those within the PRC, who are old school, and still regard that kind of wealth building as corruption. I was merely defending Samurai Blues point of view, because I regard it as possible/likely, and I also think that this current "black-out" is to hide the truth, and part of that truth is that the world wide financial draw down is affecting everyone????? End OT

Good Post Pan Asian!

 

[Air Force Brat]

Yes, but how many miles of those pretty rails have design flaws that caused the

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? I have to admit whenever I step on a Chinese jetliner or train, the back of my mind lets out a silent prayer that the inspector on my ride wasn't paid to overlook problems on that vehicle. I know it's not just to feel that way, but corruption is legend in China and until Xi Jinping gets it under control, people have legitimate reasons for doubt.

There ya go, ordinary folks do wonder about these things, so yes, I'd say that there is a reason to ask honest questions, thanks for being honest Stoney.

and just to be honest, I wonder the same thing when I cross those bridges in Chicago and St Louis, there is plenty of corruption hidden in the labor unions of both those cities, and Chicago is also legendary!

 

[AssassinsMace]

Even the anti-China New York Times admits, begrudgingly, China's HSR, the largest operating system in the world, has a safe record despite the accident.

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Entities like the media that bring up corruption in China aren't about looking out for what's best for China. They want to either be the pride police knocking down China's achievements or they want to create negative prejudice for the future. This whole anti-corruption campaign is a good thing. Exposing it now doesn't all of the sudden mean China is going to collapse. The corruption being exposed has been operating for years and if they were going to affect programs like the J-20, it would've happened long ago. Oh yeah the J-20 was all under the decision of one man like the railway ministry to say a negative fallout for the future. HSR in China is still running and new routes are still being built and planned. Instead of the massive fallout wished upon, it was only a bump. Is this like when one of China's Beidou satellites failed to reach orbit, the usual suspects declared the whole program a massive failure that China couldn't recover from? Same thing was said when the KJ-200 crashed. And to the contrary the programs go on unimpeded by negative events. The Philippines is a democracy and they speak English. Two things propagandists say give you a leg up in this world. They're worse than anything painted of China because corruption is along every step of the way. Someone on every level wants to personally profit. You're neighborhood policeman can stop by demanding a bribe or they'll throw you in jail stopping you in your paces. That's why nothing gets done in the Philippines, a country that supposedly has more advantages than China.

And can you really trust the media who points out corruption in China but then when China really acts on it like now does an about face reporting how the anti-corruption crackdown is a negative for China's economy when they're really only worried about no more corrupt people in China being able to buy Western luxury goods? I just talked to my friend who is a big spender on European high heels shoes and she just told me how some of the luxury brands she buys from are in trouble. And I told her why. Yeah apparently the only people getting hit immediately over China's anti-corruption crackdown are Western luxury brands. I didn't even think it would have that fast of an effect.

 

[Blackstone]

There ya go, ordinary folks do wonder about these things, so yes, I'd say that there is a reason to ask honest questions, thanks for being honest Stoney.

and just to be honest, I wonder the same thing when I cross those bridges in Chicago and St Louis, there is plenty of corruption hidden in the labor unions of both those cities, and Chicago is also legendary!

Thanks Brat, but let's bring it back to topic. What about the notion of corruption hampering J-20 development? It seems reasonable, even though no evidence has yet surfaced. However, given the recent mass dismissal of general officers, it's not hard to imagine corrupt fingerprints all over the Chinese military-industrial complex, including the J-20.

 

[Blitzo]

Thanks Brat, but let's bring it back to topic. What about the notion of corruption hampering J-20 development? It seems reasonable, even though no evidence has yet surfaced. However, given the recent mass dismissal of general officers, it's not hard to imagine corrupt fingerprints all over the Chinese military-industrial complex, including the J-20.

Corruption and all its different forms affects military procurement and development all the time, and I doubt there is a weapon system on the planet developed without influence by some less than moral ulterior agency.

But the idea that the lack of photos of J-20 of late is because of corruption and/or president Xi's tackling of corruption, doesn't pass the smell test because it requires a few jumps of logic. The most obvious being that lack of photos (lack of news even) doesn't mean development and progress isn't happening, only that we aren't observing it.

Incidentally the current administration has recently emphasised controlling information leaks, so that may well mean the silencing of previous sources.