Rumors from the Weibo of CD
1) the development of J-20 is much faster than the case of ... F-22, took around only 1/3 of the time (confirmed by official media)
Uh, actually I do not think that is the case at all.
We do not know how long the development of the J-20 is taking. We do not know exactly when it started, and we certainly do not know when it will produce a production aircraft yet. So we cannot know this.
We do know this about the F-22.
- 1981 mid-year: US Air Force develops initial ATF requirement, which included composite materials, lightweight alloys, advanced flight-control systems, more powerful propulsion systems, and stealth technology. No designs had started at this point.
- 1986 Jul: US Air Force puts out a Request for Proposal (RFP) for the ATF.
- 1986 Oct: Lockheed/Boeing/General Dynamics and Northrop/McDonnell Douglas selected to develop designs for a 50 month demonstration phase to produce and test two flying prototypes each.
- 1990 Sep: 1st prototype F-22 takes flight, just over four years after design started.
- 1991 Apr: Lockheed Martin awarded contract for ATF to produce F-22 fighter.
- 1997 Apr: 1st Production F-22 unveiled at factory in Marietta Georgia, six years after contract awarded
- 1997 Sep: 1st flight of production F-22.
- 2003 Jan: 1st production F-22 delivered to US Air Force, five and to-thirds years after first flight.
- 2005 Dec: F-22 achieves Initial Operational Capability (IOC), 18.9 years after design started, just under three years after initial delivery.
- 2006 Jun: In combat training debut, at Northern Edge exercises, 12 F-22s of the 94th FS down 108 adversaries with no losses.
- 2007 Dec: F-22 achieves Full Operational Capability, four years after initial delivery.
- 2011 Dec: Last of 195 production F-22 produced. 25 years after design started, and jut under nine years after initial delivery.
Which leads to the following time frames regarding the F-22:
- 5.00 years from initial requirement to award of contract
- 4.00 years from initial design to flying prototype.
- 6.00 years from contract award to first production aircraft
- 6.00 years from first production flight to first delivery to US Air i Force
- 3.00 years from first delivery to IOC
- 4.00 years from first delivery to Full Operational Capability.
- 9.00 years from first delivery to final aircraft.
We do not have as much detail on the beginnings of the J-20, but we do know this:
- 1998 time frame PLAAF develops J-XX requirement.
- 2006 time frame PLAAF has design competition between Chengdu and Shenyang for Project 718.
- 2008 PLAAF awards Chengdu the contract to build the J-20.
- 2010 Dec: 1st Prototype J-20 makes taxi tests and is unveiled to the world.
- 2011 Jan: 1st prototype J-20 first flight.
- 2012 May: 2nd prototype makes first flight.
- 2014 Mar: 3rd Prototype makes first flight.
This is all we know. But matching that up to the miles stones from the F-22 w find:
- 10.00 years from initial requirement to award of contract
- 04.00 years from initial design to flying prototype.
So, in terms of the time from the first requirement to awarding a contract, the J-20 took twice as long as the F-22.
In terms of the time from the award of the contract to the first flight of a prototype, the J-20 and the F-22 took the same amount of time.
Now, if the J-20 makes an initial in service date by 2019 like they are talking about, then it will move ahead of the F-22 time line by several years.
But that hasn't happened yet.
As of right now, they are similar in their production and development schedules. The J-20 is certainly not being done in 1/3 the time by any measure at this point.
