J-15 carrier fighter thread

S

Sczepan

Senior Member
VIP Professional
Totoro said:
Feel free to correct me:
….
the following planes flew for sure:
7 prototypes (did all seven really fly?)
24 planes in two batches
1 or more two seat prototype
1 or more EW variant prototype
1 or more catapult prototype
1 or more serial two seater (this one is perhaps not so for sure)

Roughly 35 planes. But hard to tell precisely because ther may have been some attrition replacements and the two seaters are next to impossible to track. Not to mention the possible 3rd batch.
...
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ok, lets collect the pix we have:
J-15 T Katapult.jpg J-15T prototype at CAT - original.jpg
this could show two different catapult-planes, with different numbers (5x and x1) - for the number 5 we could suspect for a number of 5 cat-planes … could we?
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Feel free to correct me:
First flight in J15 programme in 2009.
During 10 years after that
the following planes flew for sure:
7 prototypes (did all seven really fly?)
24 planes in two batches
1 or more two seat prototype
1 or more EW variant prototype
1 or more catapult prototype
1 or more serial two seater (this one is perhaps not so for sure)

Roughly 35 planes. But hard to tell precisely because ther may have been some attrition replacements and the two seaters are next to impossible to track. Not to mention the possible 3rd batch.

Highest number of crashes I read about is 4. Four crashes for 35 airframes in 10 years.

Now we don't know the actual number of flights, which is an important variable. So we can only assume number of flights per plane is similar to other programs.

F-14 stats are pretty clear according to this:
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From 1970 to 1979, the following F14 were produced:
12 prototypes and pre-serials
427 batch production planes.

During the same period, 39 different F14s crashed. 11.25 airframes produced per one crashed airframe during the first decade.
For J15, assuming four crashes, it would be: 8.75 airframes produced per one crashed airframe.

We have too little info to make this stastistic meaningful. But taking it face value, J15 programe is slightly more crashing than F-14, though not by a meaningful degree, in my opinion.
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Only 2 planes have suffered destructive crashes. The other 2 were bird strikes that ended up safely landing with the aircraft recovered.

That comes out to roughly 1 in 20 for the J-15 and your math on the F-14 seems correct.

But one should also account for total flight hours, and that stat is not publicly available.
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Is this some sort of ceremony

Batch 3?

P8m5OEk.jpg
 
Air Force Brat

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
asif iqbal said:
My concern would not be crashes

Rather no aircraft

2nd carrier is done and 3rd is coming on fast

They need at least 4-5 air wings for them

Yet no sign of any new planes
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I'm going to agree with Asif, it does indeed seem there are production hang-ups, with the J-20 standing somewhere around 20 airplanes? it does lead to legitimate questions....

I would say that China's economy has suffered from the "Obama recession" as a follow on to the US economy, which was/is devastated, our military spending and readiness were in the "krapper" after 8 years of budget cuts/sequestration..... there's little doubt there has been a widespread downturn...
 
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