Intrepid
Major
It is from a flight simulator.
J-15 carrier fighter thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
I hope you and everyone else appreciates that the photos are CGIs or composute/doctored images.
Obviously not real.
1 fatal crash, 1 non fatal and 1 bird strike.
I can’t recall the exact numbers but J15 has a similar accident rate as super hornet, both being substantially more safe than F-14.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
Were the lost aircraft replaced or impossible to tell
Feel free to correct me:
First flight in J15 programme in 2009.
During 10 years after that
the following planes flew for sure:
7 prototypes (did all seven really fly?)
24 planes in two batches
1 or more two seat prototype
1 or more EW variant prototype
1 or more catapult prototype
1 or more serial two seater (this one is perhaps not so for sure)
Roughly 35 planes. But hard to tell precisely because ther may have been some attrition replacements and the two seaters are next to impossible to track. Not to mention the possible 3rd batch.
Highest number of crashes I read about is 4. Four crashes for 35 airframes in 10 years.
Now we don't know the actual number of flights, which is an important variable. So we can only assume number of flights per plane is similar to other programs.
F-14 stats are pretty clear according to this: From 1970 to 1979, the following F14 were produced:
12 prototypes and pre-serials
427 batch production planes.
During the same period, 39 different F14s crashed. 11.25 airframes produced per one crashed airframe during the first decade.
For J15, assuming four crashes, it would be: 8.75 airframes produced per one crashed airframe.
We have too little info to make this stastistic meaningful. But taking it face value, J15 programe is slightly more crashing than F-14, though not by a meaningful degree, in my opinion.
First flight in J15 programme in 2009.
During 10 years after that
the following planes flew for sure:
7 prototypes (did all seven really fly?)
24 planes in two batches
1 or more two seat prototype
1 or more EW variant prototype
1 or more catapult prototype
1 or more serial two seater (this one is perhaps not so for sure)
Roughly 35 planes. But hard to tell precisely because ther may have been some attrition replacements and the two seaters are next to impossible to track. Not to mention the possible 3rd batch.
Highest number of crashes I read about is 4. Four crashes for 35 airframes in 10 years.
Now we don't know the actual number of flights, which is an important variable. So we can only assume number of flights per plane is similar to other programs.
F-14 stats are pretty clear according to this: From 1970 to 1979, the following F14 were produced:
12 prototypes and pre-serials
427 batch production planes.
During the same period, 39 different F14s crashed. 11.25 airframes produced per one crashed airframe during the first decade.
For J15, assuming four crashes, it would be: 8.75 airframes produced per one crashed airframe.
We have too little info to make this stastistic meaningful. But taking it face value, J15 programe is slightly more crashing than F-14, though not by a meaningful degree, in my opinion.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
My concern would not be crashes
Rather no aircraft
2nd carrier is done and 3rd is coming on fast
They need at least 4-5 air wings for them
Yet no sign of any new planes
Rather no aircraft
2nd carrier is done and 3rd is coming on fast
They need at least 4-5 air wings for them
Yet no sign of any new planes
Using the following contingency table, we ran a chi-square test. Our null hypothesis is that aircraft type and crash rate are independent. We obtain a test statistic of 0.039477. The corresponding p-value is 0.8425. We fail to reject the null hypothesis.
The crash rate is not significantly different between J-15 and F-14 given the data we have.
hmm... actually you need qualified pilots first, pretty pointless building planes that just sit around weathering, especially if there's new, better ones on the way, You have to admire the PLA Navy for doing things right rather than for PR, 'look mom I've got 4 air wings...'
Once things are sorted and everything is in place they can just do what they always do and just churn out what they need in short order it's not like China lacks for manufacturing capability! Despite the hysteria doing the rounds, China's not on a war footing, time is on its side
Intrepid
Major
You still have to consider the crashes per year or better per flying hours if available.