If the South African Air Force can't even afford to maintain and operate their Saab Gripens as is, how are they supposed to afford to purchase or sustain the heavier J-10CE?
Not too familiar with the SAAF, so please correct me if this is off target. The SAAF has been horribly underfunded for over a decade, if not longer, and has effectively rotted away in terms of both personnel and infrastructure, if not largely as a functional institution.
Even if the South African authorities somehow managed to acquire the J-10CE -- which seems more unlikely than likely -- they're going to struggle to achieve any reasonable level of mission readiness without significant investments into and impactful reforms for the SAAF, which may or may not be achievable in South Africa's current political environment.
My understanding is that the J-35A is currently in LRIP and being inducted into PLAAF service, possibly in Wuhu with the 9th Fighter Brigade. This would align with the fact that the J-35A recently shown at Zhuhai belonged to the PLAAF rather than AVIC.
Moreover, the J-35, or more accurately the original FC-31 was developed by SAC with export sales as a primary consideration, and sometimes Chinese weapons will be exported even if they never enter PLA service. The FC-1 or JF-17 is probably the most visible example of this.
Inducting the J-35 into PLAAF service may inspire confidence in prospective foreign buyers, and expedite export sales. However, induction into PLAAF service isn't a prerequisite to securing export orders.
In all fairness, an exportable version of the J-35 almost certainly already exist on paper at a minimum, and can be made a reality within a few years if the funding is in place.
Granted, ramping up production of an exportable version of the J-35 is obviously going to take more time and effort than producing additional batches of a mature product like the J-10CE. However, it isn't particularly out of reach.
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The J-10CE is a capable and affordable platform by all fair measurements, but the value proposition just isn't there for the Saudis or Emiratis. So I wouldn't hold my breath here for Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
It makes sense for the Egyptian Air Force to acquire the J-10CE as soon as possible given the reportedly poor condition of their aging F-16 fleet, as well as the compatible armaments that they're limited to for political considerations, but the same can't be said about the Saudis or Emiratis.
Both the Saudis and Emiratis have expressed significant interest in the F-35 for years, if not over a decade, but have been forced to settle with additional 4.5 generation Eurofighters or Rafales, respectively.
Adding another 4.5 gen fighter like the J-10CE to their fleets just doesn't make a lot of logistical or operational sense, especially if you consider their current inventories and procurements in more depth . . .
The oldest fighter in Saudi inventory is the Tornado, most of which have already been phased out of service, with the remainder due for replacement soon. It wouldn't make sense for the Saudis to replace their remaining Tornados with the lighter J-10CE, nevermind replace any of their older F-15 airframes with the J-10CE when they're already operating heavier twin engine 4.5 generation fighters like the Eurofighter and FA-15SA, which they can procure more of without further complicating logistics.
Moreover, the Saudis tend to prefer twin engine fighters in general, which is reflected by their extant inventory. So if they're going to make an exception and induct a single engine fighter into service, it'll more likely than not need to be a 5th or 5th+ generation fighter to secure buy-in.
The oldest fighter in Emirati inventory is the Mirage 2000, which is in the process of being replaced by the Rafale. These airframes are complemented by a fleet of block 60 F-16s, which are reasonably recent, and not quite in need of replacement, yet.
Considering the UAE's ongoing procurement of L-15 trainers from China, there's a reasonable chance a Chinese fighter will be added to Abu Dhabi's inventory as a follow up. However, considering Abu Dhabi's unfulfilled aspirations for the F-35, and its ongoing induction of the Rafale, it makes more sense for their next major fighter acquisition to be a 5th or a 5th+ generation fighter rather than an additional 4.5 generation fighter.
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Given the likely timeline of a consummated J-35 or F-35 sale to the Saudis or Emiratis, the odds of a successful J-10CE sale to either sheikhdom appears negligible unless one of these countries decides to significantly and rapidly expand the overall size of their air force and sees acquiring the J-10CE as a cost effective path forward.
Countries like Nigeria, Sudan and perhaps Angola, which are rich in resources, but relatively cash poor, are probably going to be the most likely customers for the J-10CE in Africa in particular, if not in general for the next few years.
Granted, additional sales to Pakistan remains plausible, as do entry into markets like Bangladesh, Venezuela and Cambodia.
