J-10 Thread IV

[TheFuture_NoMore]

The issue is with the iranian budget, they can't spend everything on expensive imported arms. At least not if they want to fight and win.

Right now - Iran cannot fight as it does not an an airforce worthy of the name. Withought having an airforce to compliment its SAM systems, Iran will lose control of its airspace very quickly. SAM systems and aircraft compliment each other and protect each other to enforce control over a given space.

Even though Ukraine itself isn't doing well, the Ukraine formula of using a lot of inexpensive hand me down arms should probably be considered one of the most optimal method.

Ukraine has understood the need to be able to protect its airspace hence has been asking for, and recieved F16s and Mirages 2000s, all of which are BVR capable platforms.

Payment to China is the least of Iran's worries, they have a lot of funds or other things to pay with.

If they cannot effectively protect their airspace, then anything else they would buy is not going to be effective. It will be destroyed on the ground.

The issue is the running costs of some expensive foreign fighters, buying replacement parts that can't be made in Iran, having no ToT and so on. Not to mention J-10 with smaller combat radius will have to be bought in larger numbers due to Iran size.

Iran has been tinkering with attempts at home grown solutions, and none of them have been able to yield a viable and effective platform. There comes a point where there is a cross over between having "actual" military capability and tinkering. If Iran was capable to build an effective platform, it would have done so by now. What Iran needs urgently is an emergency level of infusion into its airspace given all the new military threats it is facing, including recurring direct attacks by Israel. Israel will work out how to destroy Irans IADS shield, all IADs systems are vulnerable if they dont have an airforce to cover for them - they compliment each other to form an effective shield.

Let's face it, J-10 (and similar contemporary like Rafale or Typhoon) are heavily built to awe in shows and peacetime, but do not excel in peer conflicts, unless you can field a shit ton of them. Their asset to China is actually their low price compared to twin engine fighters, which isn't an asset for import buyers, as the J-10s get marked up a lot.

Crazy statement - wont bother replying to this...

 

[asif iqbal]

PAF 33rd Tactical Wing holds the No.15 Squadron's which has the J10C it was the 1st squadron to stand up with the aircraft

I do think Pakistan can do with a few more squadrons of this type and if the latest rumours are real

another 24 x units can be bought

J10CE + JF17 Block III are a very good medium/high combination for PAF

 

[Biscuits]

Right now - Iran cannot fight as it does not an an airforce worthy of the name. Withought having an airforce to compliment its SAM systems, Iran will lose control of its airspace very quickly. SAM systems and aircraft compliment each other and protect each other to enforce control over a given space.



Ukraine has understood the need to be able to protect its airspace hence has been asking for, and recieved F16s and Mirages 2000s, all of which are BVR capable platforms.



If they cannot effectively protect their airspace, then anything else they would buy is not going to be effective. It will be destroyed on the ground.



Iran has been tinkering with attempts at home grown solutions, and none of them have been able to yield a viable and effective platform. There comes a point where there is a cross over between having "actual" military capability and tinkering. If Iran was capable to build an effective platform, it would have done so by now. What Iran needs urgently is an emergency level of infusion into its airspace given all the new military threats it is facing, including recurring direct attacks by Israel. Israel will work out how to destroy Irans IADS shield, all IADs systems are vulnerable if they dont have an airforce to cover for them - they compliment each other to form an effective shield.



Crazy statement - wont bother replying to this...

Ukraine is doing okay ish enough for stalemate with no airforce to its name. And Iran is not about to fight someone nearly as powerful as Russia by itself.

If Iran judges they really need J-10s in particular, they would have bought them... This isn't the best strategy.

 

[Wrought]

Let's face it, J-10 (and similar contemporary like Rafale or Typhoon) are heavily built to awe in shows and peacetime, but do not excel in peer conflicts, unless you can field a shit ton of them. Their asset to China is actually their low price compared to twin engine fighters, which isn't an asset for import buyers, as the J-10s get marked up a lot.

4th-gen platforms, including J-10 and equivalents in other countries, are the backbone of a modern air force. Nobody has enough 5th-gens to fly every possible mission, not China, not the US, nobody. And even if they did have enough airframes, it would be a colossal waste to task them with every air patrol and cruise missile interception and all the other mundane mission profiles which don't need VLO to perform.

The US already discovered this the hard way with the F-35.

“You don’t drive your Ferrari to work every day, you only drive it on Sundays. This is our ‘high end’ fighter, we want to make sure we don’t use it all for the low-end fight,” he said in a press conference on February 17.

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[Gloire_bb]

And even if they did have enough airframes, it would be a colossal waste to task them with every air patrol and cruise missile interception and all the other mundane mission profiles which don't need VLO to perform.

The US already discovered this the hard way with the F-35.

To be fair, that's failure of their procurement, that was largely screwed by Lockheed Martin, and US own choices (30t mtow bomber as your single fleet platform? Good luck!)

F-15ex isn't cheap to run, despite being roundy, with entannas sticking out.

F-16 family is also not growing cheaper over years.

 

[TheFuture_NoMore]

And Iran is not about to fight someone nearly as powerful as Russia by itself.

Both or either Israel and IDF maywell come for Iran soon ..

 

[Biscuits]

Both or either Israel and IDF maywell come for Iran soon ..

My point stands if its just Israel.

If US also attacks, then Iran would recieve other guarantees and more direct assistance. Which would be outside the scope of this discussion.

Instead of 50 million apiece on 1 J-10, against a peer like Israel, it's better to buy dozens of IADS, pay soldiers extra to reduce eventual mobilisation burden, buy thousands of FPV, artillery etc.

There is no need for Iranian J-10, and even Iran seems to think this as they're not in a hurry to buy.

 

[mack8]

Apparently, Sudan could be another of the 3 customers rumoured to be buying the J-10CE.

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[plawolf]

There is potentially a large order waiting from Iran if the payment methods can be resolved. I dont understand why China wont take payment in oil, given how much oil China imports anyway ????

Commodity payment schemes usually spans several years where the customer spreads payments over those years in the form of commodity shipments. After all, it’s not like Iran can just surge production overnight and delivery months or even years worth of output overnight.

Chinese reluctance to agree to such a deal with Iran is probably principally down to Chinese doubts about Iran’s ability to fulfil its delivery commitments with the ever present threat of war and sanctions hanging over its head and Iran’s best counter to such threats.

If Iran’s two most likely outcomes are either being attacked by Israel and the U.S., in which case it’s oil production capacity is certainly going to be badly damaged if not destroyed; or to achieve nuclear breakout as a means of establishing credible deterrence, in which case China would be obliged to join in with UN sanctions against Iran. Then either way China isn’t going to get paid for its planes, which is why China would want to be paid in cash in advance instead of commodities afterwards.

 

[Deino]

Apparently, Sudan could be another of the 3 customers rumoured to be buying the J-10CE.

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But just like with Egypt, I wouldn't open the champagne and celebrate yet... We should wait for the first photos for that!