Not sure about the Hybrid AESA PESA thing. Hornetfinn at F-16.net (works on commercial AESA systems as a job) criticized the very concept of a Hybrid PESA.
The question has always interested me. I wish I knew the source of that image of the radar compared to the J-16 and J-20 radar.
as a for and against
AESA
Slanted back for LPI (never seen a PESA do this, but APG-80 and APG-79 do it)
Resembles J-10C radar
Contemporary with T/R module research
Air frame redesign seems unneeded for PESA (several Russian PESA were offered for J-10A in the 90s) J-10A probably has sufficient cooling for PESA.
Kinda strange to have a PESA only for an interm radar rather then just wait for AESA only a few years later. Seems more likely to have earlier AESA technology to gain experience (US did the same and mostly skipped PESA like China).
PESA
Prominent backend that resembles Type 1473 TWT
L-15 PESA does vaguely resemble J-10b radar Chinese articles seem to more often say it’s a pesa then AESA
Supposedly at the J-10B debut at golden helmets the J-11B dominated it. It’s not crazy for a mechanical scan radar to have better range when size is very different (J/APG-1 and APG-80 have less detection range then APG-70/63(v)1/PSP, APG-79 about the same) but supposedly the J-11B ECM gave the J-10B radar a lot of trouble. That’s way more likely with PESA, unless the J-10B software was in a very Immature state.
anyway it’s just a fun little question about the most mysterious member of the J-10 family.