J-10 Thread IV

[ougoah]

Most likely speculations:

Pakistan order of J-10 being filled and PAF J-10s are parked waiting to be delivered/received.

WS-10B engine issue on single engine application has been raised which means the 50 or so J-10 that have already been delivered to PLAAF with WS-10B would probably be grounded until matters resolved. This means the buildup outside CAC is part of that grounding of a batch that was last produced with the engine. Over 20 units is a lot of production time though. I really doubt this is the batch size and speed and this makes the engine based speculation really unlikely. The engine's been tested and improved for about a half after development completed and then flown on J-11B for ten whole years with no issue and then applied on J-16. The data is enough to competently assess how reliable it would be for a single engine fighter.

If the issue is engine related, it may not be the engine itself but how it is integrated with the J-10 and behaviour/performance from this integration.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Uhmm not directly related to the j-10c stop production rumor, but it just comes to mind, has there any news/rumor regarding a possible j-10a MLU program ongoing or in the near future? The earliest j-10 is more than 15 years old, so it’s about the time...but currently, we haven’t heard anything regarding a possible MLU, I’m curious on why...

Like, if there is going to be an MLU,

• are they going to replace the al-31?
• Are they going to upgrade to DSI intake?
• How many airframes change they need to do to a j-10a for it to upgrade to j-10c level, and most importantly, does it worth it? or it might be more economical to build a new j-10c instead?

all these questions just make me think, it's unlikely for a j-10c to stop production in the mid-long term (if there is no new upgrade like J-10d), but possible for a pause in some time. But again, I too, don't think WS-10 should be the reason for the pause, if there is any

The only upgrade I see for J-10A is radar/avionics upgrade. I don't think they can convert to DSI intake. Also not worth the effort to switch engines.

 

[zszczhyx]

I think it's just that the production speed is too fast, making others not keep up.

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今天，航空工业向三家单位发去贺信： 祝贺航空工业成飞提前超额完成全年生产任务，实现均衡生产高级目标。 祝贺航空工业哈飞提前超额完成全年生产任务，实现均衡生产目标。 祝贺航空工业昌飞提前超额完成全年生产任务，实现均衡生产目标。

"On December 31, AVIC congratulated AVIC(Chengdu), AVIC(Changhe) and AVIC(Harbin) for exceeded the annual production task ahead of schedule."
Now we know how much they overachieved.

 

[Blitzo]

Uhmm not directly related to the j-10c stop production rumor, but it just comes to mind, has there any news/rumor regarding a possible j-10a MLU program ongoing or in the near future? The earliest j-10 is more than 15 years old, so it’s about the time...but currently, we haven’t heard anything regarding a possible MLU, I’m curious on why...

Like, if there is going to be an MLU,

• are they going to replace the al-31?
• Are they going to upgrade to DSI intake?
• How many airframes change they need to do to a j-10a for it to upgrade to j-10c level, and most importantly, does it worth it? or it might be more economical to build a new j-10c instead?

all these questions just make me think, it's unlikely for a j-10c to stop production in the mid-long term (if there is no new upgrade like J-10d), but possible for a pause in some time. But again, I too, don't think WS-10 should be the reason for the pause, if there is any

The "rumour" re J-10C "stopping production" from Scramble IMO is unsubstantiated and illogical. They've offered no evidence or reasoning behind the idea.


As for a J-10A MLU, as Siege wrote, it will likely not be structural and likely will not replace the engines.
Instead it will be modifications to avionics (radar, datalinks, other sensors), potentially including cockpit as well.
An J-10A MLU will likely be similar to J-11BG in nature.

For when a J-10A MLU may happen, who knows. Probably in the next few years.
Just like J-11BG, chances are a "J-10AG" MLU might be something we don't know of until we literally see the first aircraft.
If I were the PLAAF I would also aim for a J-10AG MLU to be something that can be done as much at PLAAF depots or even airbases, rather than being sent back to the factory, which as I understand it is similar to how the J-11BG upgrade is pursued.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Guys from CJDBY are onto this. Let’s be patient and hear it from the wall climbers.

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[KIENCHIN]

Guys from CJDBY are onto this. Let’s be patient and hear it from the wall climbers.

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Please give a short translation of what is being discussed, thanks.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Please give a short translation of what is being discussed, thanks.

Latest post from someone living in Chengdu suggests that they’ve been delivering in large batches since COVID.

 

[Deino]

What do you think about Scramble's reasoning regarding WS-10?

I find it very doubtful to think that the WS-10s on J-10 have yet to be qualified for operational use, considering the PLA clearly must've given its go ahead for J-10C production with WS-10 to begin before late 2019, and we've had pictures of many new airframe J-10Cs with WS-10s pictured since then, up to the tune of something close to 50-60 WS-10 powered J-10Cs, of which we know some if not all by now should have been painted and delivered to the PLA.

The lack of pictures that Scramble describes IMO could much more reasonably be attributed to the general PLA opsec clampdown especially in regards to serial numbers and information re new fighters.



A belated happy birthday as well.

First of all I noticed this as a fact only - as, there is indeed surprisingly a large number of J-10C on the tarmac at CAC - and then there is the search for options:

As such I have these possibilities spinning thru my head:

1. As you noted: "it's possible that airframe production and engine production may be slightly un-synced atm"
2. As noted in the report: "the locally developed Shenyang WS-10B engine has not yet been qualified for operational use"
3. They are waiting for yet another item (avionics)
4. As @Atomicfrog suggested: They are "just waiting ... to get enough trained pilots?"
5. As suggested in the Pakistani community: they are for a foreign customer, most likely Pakistan.
6. they (CAC/PLAAF) are waiting for a special occasion, even or whatever
7. it is simply some sort of coincidence and there is no meaning at all behind this.



So up to each single argument alone:

1. a very much reasonable explanation (IMO the most likely one!) As you noted, a slip in production of one item, maybe caused due to COVID-related production issues at a subcontractor this indeed might result in "an entire batch of aircraft might be waiting that amount of time for engines" and yes, "it's not a huge deal." ... so lets keep fingers crossed

2. I must admit I won't exclude this (and eventually I'm responsible for this claim since I discussed this as one option with a guy I know at Scramble!) since we have indeed production going on since late 2019 but we haven't seen a single WS-10B-powered one in service yet. I know, most likely it is the fact the security regulations prevent us to know each new unit (in fact I think we are commonly almost one year behind between deliveries and unit confirmation especially by a serial number )

3. Fits more off less to 1 & 2 but we won't know.

4. Indeed an explanation, but I don't think a likely one since we usually get lots of images of PLAAF flight training activities... so IMO unlikely.

5. This is probably the most-wanted - and for them the easiest - explanation within a certain "community" and even if indeed not impossible, I find it unlikely too.

6. ... I couldn't imagine what this could be!?

7. maybe, but also unlikely IMO.



As such I'm indeed puzzled by this observation and at least for the moment have no real idea even if I prefer option 1, but I won't exclude option 2.



PS:

...
Personally I am skeptical of Scramble's suggestion that J-10C production has "stopped".

I don't see how on earth they could conclude that simply based on pictures taken from the outside.

Scramble does not suggest J-10C production has stopped, they only suggested "deliveries ... seem to have stopped"

 

[Blitzo]

First of all I noticed this as a fact only - as, there is indeed surprisingly a large number of J-10C on the tarmac at CAC - and then there is the search for options:

As such I have these possibilities spinning thru my head:

1. As you noted: "it's possible that airframe production and engine production may be slightly un-synced atm"
2. As noted in the report: "the locally developed Shenyang WS-10B engine has not yet been qualified for operational use"
3. They are waiting for yet another item (avionics)
4. As @Atomicfrog suggested: They are "just waiting ... to get enough trained pilots?"
5. As suggested in the Pakistani community: they are for a foreign customer, most likely Pakistan.
6. they (CAC/PLAAF) are waiting for a special occasion, even or whatever
7. it is simply some sort of coincidence and there is no meaning at all behind this.



So up to each single argument alone:

1. a very much reasonable explanation (IMO the most likely one!) As you noted, a slip in production of one item, maybe caused due to COVID-related production issues at a subcontractor this indeed might result in "an entire batch of aircraft might be waiting that amount of time for engines" and yes, "it's not a huge deal." ... so lets keep fingers crossed

2. I must admit I won't exclude this (and eventually I'm responsible for this claim since I discussed this as one option with a guy I know at Scramble!) since we have indeed production going on since late 2019 but we haven't seen a single WS-10B-powered one in service yet. I know, most likely it is the fact the security regulations prevent us to know each new unit (in fact I think we are commonly almost one year behind between deliveries and unit confirmation especially by a serial number )

3. Fits more off less to 1 & 2 but we won't know.

4. Indeed an explanation, but I don't think a likely one since we usually get lots of images of PLAAF flight training activities... so IMO unlikely.

5. This is probably the most-wanted - and for them the easiest - explanation within a certain "community" and even if indeed not impossible, I find it unlikely too.

6. ... I couldn't imagine what this could be!?

7. maybe, but also unlikely IMO.



As such I'm indeed puzzled by this observation and at least for the moment have no real idea even if I prefer option 1, but I won't exclude option 2.



PS:



Scramble does not suggest J-10C production has stopped, they only suggested "deliveries ... seem to have stopped"

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Ah I see.... to be honest, based on the way it's been received, their phrasing of the "deliveries of the Chengdu J-10C fighter aircraft to the People's Liberation Army - Air Force (PLAAF, China Air Force) seem to have stopped" has caused many people here and elsewhere to interpret it as if they're suggesting J-10C production has stopped.

IMO much more accurate would be something like "J-10C airframes have accumulated at CAC, with a pause in airframe delivery to the PLAAF".
Their phrasing of it suggests that they think J-10C delivery to the PLAAF has stopped in a permanent way, rather than merely a pause in delivery of the current airframes visible.


As for your options, IMO I think option 1 is overwhelmingly much more likely.
Option 2 is not impossible, but I think it is about as equal as options 3-7 are.


In addition, as it was rightly reminded to us, it is possible that these airframes are airframes produced ahead of schedule (

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), as it was announced on 31st December, where Chengdu was congratulated for achieving it.

Considering that, it is very possible if not likely that these are simply airframes produced ahead of schedule and are just waiting for their engines.

 

[Totoro]

Besides the pilot training possibility, it could be something as "trivial" as a defect in the production process in a certain batch. Like with any mass production of any product. So before the product is delivered to the customer, the manufacturer has to address the defect on all produced items. Thus it can't deliver them right away. Thus the undelivered products get accumulated. It doesn't have to be a serious or big defect. Just one that makes the customer go "well, we won't accept these products as they're not fully up to contracted specifications. You have XX days to correct the issue, and you may have to pay penalties for each day the plane is not delivered as it should be" So in a way, it may financially pay off to PLAAF *not* to accept/receive those planes, as it may mean they will have to pay less for them (as the penalties get deducted from the contracted sum)