plawolf
Lieutenant General
I see, however, I think you're suggesting the J-10A and continued J-10B production will remain enough for the PLA, along with expected upgrades in avionics?
I suppose my opinion will have to differ here with yours (if what I stated was indeed your position). I think more extensive upgrades will eventually be instigated, and in a more formal way (i.e.: not simply one batch improving incrementally from the previous on a small facet). Upgrades including engines, avionics, and even some minor structural upgrades, can and imho should be investigated as J-10/A/B production continues in the years to come.
A more multirole orientation may or may not be included.
It sounds like our positions are not all that different. Only difference seems to be that I count avionics, radar and engine upgrades as just upgrades while you are counting them as equating to a major new variant.
Just to sum up, I believe the improvement between the J10B and the J10A is equivalent to the leap from F18C to F18E. That is the kind of major upgrade I could not expect to see again for the J10. However, incremental upgrades like those from F16A to F16C is likely to be implemented as time and technology moves on and the PLAAF tries to keep their earlier J10s up to date with the latest developments as much as practical.
While there is merit in the idea of PLAAF preserving fighters in more fixed, single role duties as a result of facing the US, I believe the added flexibility of having a fleet capable of precision ground attack on top of purpose oriented strike aircraft will be more than worth any losses in air to air training hours. Implementing such a wide scale multirole fleet will favour a common (or at least a more common) air to ground munition base for all multirole aircraft + strike aircraft, and will benefit wartime redundancy, mission planning options, attrition, and basing/rebasing.
The problem with that is geography and politics.
China has no foreign military bases and does not look likely to get any for several decades at least, if ever. That means that the PLAAF will be planning to operate from only Chinese bases, and that greatly limits the targets and theatres medium fighters like the J10 can operate over with heavy and draggy air to ground payloads.
Other than Taiwan, just where else is within range of multirole J10s that would require multirole J10s to turn the tide of the war?
The most likely flash points are mainly outside of the range of J10s carrying AG loads, and what theatres J10s can reach from mainland Chinese bases are either low threat, or easily won by the PLA ground forces.
A multirole J10 is just not something all that useful to the PLAAF, which is why they have not bothered to make their J10s multirole even though they clearly have the capacity to do so for some time now.
The PLAAF is mainly a homeland defence force for the Chinese, always have been and pretty much always will be. Its their carrier fleets that will be their primary offensive oriented strike arm, and when the PLANAF picks a medium weight fighter for their future carriers, multirole strike capabilities will be a must for them.