J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[Lion]

China ain't gonna have that many J-10 that's for certain. Vietnam is no threat to China, and India airforce isn't a threat either due to the geography. Nor will they stupidly attack. ROC will retaliate of course if PRC tries to reclaim the island back, South Korea is actually getting more friendly with China now. Only credible intervention of war is Japan. USA ground units didn't use body armor in WWII, China should follow suit?

China focus is economy and its people, the military is there to defend it. That is the moto.

I agree with Gallaghan assertion. China has outgrown itself from regional power into a superpower. It cannot just think abt its own business and nothing will happen.

USA try to stay away from trouble/rest of the world trouble before WWII after attaining economy might. Guess what happen?

If current China want to ensure prosperity,continue growth of econ and stability. Strong projection power of military is a must.

 

[rhino123]

I think 1000 J-10s should be build and deployed by 2025. USAF at its peak has 990 F-16s so China should follow suit. Such a huge number of J-10s would also remind Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Taiwan that China is no longer just a regional power but a global power equal to USA by 2025.:china:

I agree with Gallaghan assertion. China has outgrown itself from regional power into a superpower. It cannot just think abt its own business and nothing will happen.

USA try to stay away from trouble/rest of the world trouble before WWII after attaining economy might. Guess what happen?

If current China want to ensure prosperity,continue growth of econ and stability. Strong projection power of military is a must.

A simple question... why must China always aimed to be Number 1 in the world? That is a simple question... but the answer is very complicated.

The true fact is, China has no desire to be number 1 in everything she do, from the time of Deng and his famous saying, 不要强出头.

In the past, when Soviet Union and US both wanted to be number 1, they began their arms race. And what happen? Soviet collapsed. US is badly hit too.

China might be richer now than the old Soviet Union... but the chinese's wealth is not unlimited. She would not go on the same path as the Soviet Union.

China is a powerful export country, practically all the consumer product of the world is being manufactured in China. The main business is still export. China only recently began to have more domestical buying power and demands, and so even when we are looking at 1.4 billion population, her buying power is nowhere near US, yet.

Thus it had always been a policy of CHina to keep peace with whoever, and it is a chinese culture not to bully others... look at historical event and you should know what I mean.

So to built 1000+ J-10 is total madness. Of course you need military presence and projection, but not the extend of 1000+ J-10. Plus why do CHina had to do whatever US had done? They do not share the same doctrine and they do not share the same vision.

US wanted to be world police and the strongest superpower on Earth... thats why they need these much weaponries. CHina does not need to follow suit.

 

[Gallaghan36]

Having 1000 J-10s would provide more jobs for Chinese people who want to join the PLAAF. China should spread more advertisement for PLAAF to attract people with good eyesight and good mathematics to join the PLAAF. More jets=more pilots. More pilots would also equal to a massive pool of talented fighter pilots that would make it much easier for China to train pilots as good as Israel's. Also the combined 4th generation fighter fleets of Japan, Taiwan, SK and US regional forces number more than 600, with USAF F-22 jets deployed in Japan. To ensure local air superiority(US RAND conducted a game in which F22s defeated a much larger PLAAF force 12 times the number of Su-27s), PLAAF must overwhelm quality(USAAF pilots and F-22s)with quantity. There are only so much AMRAAMs US can fire, especially when confronted by 1000-1200 J-10s. @Rhino123: China doesn't have to be Number 1. It just has to be equal to USA. China can't afford to be modest anymore. It needs to be more assertive and firm in its military development but at the same time friendly diplomatically. Efforts must also be made to improve relations with Vietnam lest Vietnam signs a military alliance with USA.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Having 1000 J-10s would provide more jobs for Chinese people who want to join the PLAAF. China should spread more advertisement for PLAAF to attract people with good eyesight and good mathematics to join the PLAAF. More jets=more pilots. More pilots would also equal to a massive pool of talented fighter pilots that would make it much easier for China to train pilots as good as Israel's. Also the combined 4th generation fighter fleets of Japan, Taiwan, SK and US regional forces number more than 600, with USAF F-22 jets deployed in Japan. To ensure local air superiority(US RAND conducted a game in which F22s defeated a much larger PLAAF force 12 times the number of Su-27s), PLAAF must overwhelm quality(USAAF pilots and F-22s)with quantity. There are only so much AMRAAMs US can fire, especially when confronted by 1000-1200 J-10s. @Rhino123: China doesn't have to be Number 1. It just has to be equal to USA. China can't afford to be modest anymore. It needs to be more assertive and firm in its military development but at the same time friendly diplomatically. Efforts must also be made to improve relations with Vietnam lest Vietnam signs a military alliance with USA.

Can't help but wonder who is going to pay for the 1000 J-10s. Will you kindly volunteer?

 

[Lion]

A simple question... why must China always aimed to be Number 1 in the world? That is a simple question... but the answer is very complicated.

The true fact is, China has no desire to be number 1 in everything she do, from the time of Deng and his famous saying, 不要强出头.

In the past, when Soviet Union and US both wanted to be number 1, they began their arms race. And what happen? Soviet collapsed. US is badly hit too.

China might be richer now than the old Soviet Union... but the chinese's wealth is not unlimited. She would not go on the same path as the Soviet Union.

China is a powerful export country, practically all the consumer product of the world is being manufactured in China. The main business is still export. China only recently began to have more domestical buying power and demands, and so even when we are looking at 1.4 billion population, her buying power is nowhere near US, yet.

Thus it had always been a policy of CHina to keep peace with whoever, and it is a chinese culture not to bully others... look at historical event and you should know what I mean.

So to built 1000+ J-10 is total madness. Of course you need military presence and projection, but not the extend of 1000+ J-10. Plus why do CHina had to do whatever US had done? They do not share the same doctrine and they do not share the same vision.

US wanted to be world police and the strongest superpower on Earth... thats why they need these much weaponries. CHina does not need to follow suit.

Its the situation of the changing world that forces China to changes its stance and position.

To ensure China continue to growth and achieve prosperity, China continue to increase overseas material import to sustain this enormous growth. With this ever increasing interact with other country and the competition for material. Friction bound to arises, tension tend to ignite.

It will be unimaginable if the flow of material to China is interrupted, you can imagine the damages it can causes to growth of China. It is impossible to ensure this flow of material can be attain just thru the uses of financial means.

I give you one good example. Saudi Arabia who is world leader of Muslim nations hate Israel.

Guess who is the biggest supporter of Israel?
Guess who is the biggest supplier of crude oil to USA?

Do you think Saudi sells crude oil to USA just for financial mean?

Isn't it ironic someone who hate somebody so much will do business to its hater biggest donor.. Why Saudi do that, Becos of the military might of USA that ensure all this ironic happen.

Finally, I think the top brass in China realise this already and they are going towards building a similiar military might of comparable to USA. It need not be the same number but enough to project a military might. I give example, USA has 10 CVN, maybe China just need to have 4-5 will be enough to project its might in a decent scale.

 

[druid84]

Well this is an interesting discussion, but, I though Canada was the biggest supplier of oil to America?

 

[no_name]

It will be unimaginable if the flow of material to China is interrupted, you can imagine the damages it can causes to growth of China. It is impossible to ensure this flow of material can be attain just thru the uses of financial means.

Although you have valid point part of the solution is to tie chinese interest with major world power interest. If material/resources is blocked first thing china will do is to divert resources used for export for domestic use.

Parry a thousand pound with one ounce, by securing chinese-other party co-interest less effort is required on the chinese part.

I see lot's of fengqin (not you, of course) try to say china will do this or that, or china will drop US bonds. That's is the stupidst thing that could happen. Why would US hold back when it has nothing left to lose?

China wants a clipped or gradually dimishing US influence, and they are feeding them toward this direction. A sudden implosion is actually not what they wanted to see. What will happen to the thousands of nukes if US government lost control? Same thing can be said about those wishing collapse of china - that is the most stupid thing you can wish for.

Part of the reason why nuclear proliferation is an issue is because a regime change is much harder when a country has nuclear weapon. Not because the current leader might use it but because it might fall into the wrong hand in ensuing chaos. Actually, once a country has nuclear weapons, other countries worse nightmare is the instability and collapse of said country.

Regarding J-10 I don't think it is a good idea to produce 1000 J-10s. It would be too late when F-35 is already close to deployment. It also eats resources away from other more important projects. I think J-10 will remain more or less the current amount while J-8 will be upgraded and J-7 phased away as newer aircraft (and maybe newer and modified version of J-11 and J-10) came into surface. There is too much baggage in the PLA to go for a complete makeover.

Producing thousands of J-10s will just ensure you have thousands of J-7 equivalent in the future.

 

[EDIATH]

Is this still the J10 thread?

If one wants to talk about how many J10 fighters need to be produced, why not start with:

How to align J10's capabilities with PLAAF's mission statement, e.g. Is it fast enough to react against foreign threats from air? Do the payload as well as combat radius meet PLAAF's requirements to carry out offensive missions at certain distance?

What's the cost of producing J10 & the implication of such production on overall PLA annual budget?

What's would be the production rate of J10 (not just at CAC but suppliers of sub-systems), and again, the potential cost of accelerating it?

How many older planes would be replaced by J10 if PLAAF decides to retain the size of current fighter fleet? Alternatively, what's the chance of forming brand new J10 regiments, and yet again, the motives and cost of that?

How would J10 fare in the foreseeable future (with 20 year+ service life) as new generations of fighters entering the market? How much potential is there for J10 to be upgraded so as to address such challenge?

Having considered all above, what would be the desired number of J10 fighters along with J11, new gen. fighter etc., in terms of conducting joint air warfare as well as opportunity cost for production?

Just a little effort to bring the discussion back to the topic.

 

[tch1972]

A

Regarding J-10 I don't think it is a good idea to produce 1000 J-10s. It would be too late when F-35 is already close to deployment. It also eats resources away from other more important projects. I think J-10 will remain more or less the current amount while J-8 will be upgraded and J-7 phased away as newer aircraft (and maybe newer and modified version of J-11 and J-10) came into surface. There is too much baggage in the PLA to go for a complete makeover.

Producing thousands of J-10s will just ensure you have thousands of J-7 equivalent in the future.

The J10 project took more than 20 years and by the time it ready for deployment, it equivalent in the western world had already past the peak and starting the declining stage of the product life cycle.

Having said this, it doesn't mean that China should stop developing advance variants of the jets. There are still demands for this sort of jets in the 3rd world countries. Income from the sales can then be used to fund R&D for more advance fighters.That how the industry can achieve sustainability in the long run. It also shorten the learning curve for China's aviation industry. As for PLAAF, J-10 may just be a stop gap measures allowing them to deploy relatively large number of advance fighters at affordable cost till something better come along. That my personal opinion.

 

[siegecrossbow]

The J10 project took more than 20 years and by the time it ready for deployment, it equivalent in the western world had already past the peak and starting the declining stage of the product life cycle.

Having said this, it doesn't mean that China should stop developing advance variants of the jets. There are still demands for this sort of jets in the 3rd world countries. Income from the sales can then be used to fund R&D for more advance fighters.That how the industry can achieve sustainability in the long run. It also shorten the learning curve for China's aviation industry. As for PLAAF, J-10 may just be a stop gap measures allowing them to deploy relatively large number of advance fighters at affordable cost till something better come along. That my personal opinion.

I don't think that this is necessarily the case. Current Fifth gen fighters are extremely expensive to build and maintain which is why I think Fourth Generation fighters (4.5 and 4++) will serve as the backbone of most air forces for the next two decades or so. There is a reason that planes like the Eurofighter and Su-35 are still being developed.

I am also interested in whether it is feasible to make the J-10 "stealthy" along the veins of the Silent Eagle. For all we know a stealthy variant of the J-10 may be one of the many planes in the J-XX program and may be the best platform to test technology like the AESA radar and internal weapons bay for the dedicated Stealth Fighter.