Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
_killuminati_ said:
Not sure if this constitutes the banned topic but, IDF captured Syrian-controlled Golan Heights..
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After the fall of Syria, I suspect (as I did originally) that Lebanese territory will also fall into IDF hands with Hezbollah's supply lines from Syria cut off/endangered.
Another UN violation.
Click to expand...
Lebanon is in big trouble. They lost their strategic rear. Their only remaining lifeline is resupply by sea which is comparatively open and public relative to land links. They won't fall immediately due to their stocks and battle experience, but they are being set up for a total defeat in the next round.

This is a classic move that we've seen before - a limited strike, ceasefire using diplomacy as a smokescreen, cut resupply/reserves, secondary sanctions to choke out, wait for weakening, then finish at much lower cost. A few examples:

1. Iraq (Desert Storm -> Food for Oil -> Occupation of Iraq)
2. Yugoslavia (1991 Yugoslavia civil wars -> Sarajevo Accords -> UN SCR 757 -> Kosovo),
3. Syria (2012 civil war ->
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->
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-> Syria 2024)

Prior to the ceasefire + buffer zone agreement in 2019, Syria was not subject to secondary sanctions. Then after the ceasefire is signed... they get secondary sanctioned? Makes no sense from a diplomatic point of view, until you realize that the sanctions are not meant to stop the war.

If this guess is anywhere remotely near right, then Lebanon's future is very, very dark.
 
I

iBBz

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Lebanon is in big trouble. They lost their strategic rear. Their only remaining lifeline is resupply by sea which is comparatively open and public relative to land links. They won't fall immediately due to their stocks and battle experience, but they are being set up for a total defeat in the next round.

This is a classic move that we've seen before - a limited strike, ceasefire using diplomacy as a smokescreen, cut resupply/reserves, secondary sanctions to choke out, wait for weakening, then finish at much lower cost. A few examples:

1. Iraq (Desert Storm -> Food for Oil -> Occupation of Iraq)
2. Yugoslavia (1991 Yugoslavia civil wars -> Sarajevo Accords -> UN SCR 757 -> Kosovo),
3. Syria (2012 civil war ->
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->
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-> Syria 2024)

Prior to the ceasefire + buffer zone agreement in 2019, Syria was not subject to secondary sanctions. Then after the ceasefire is signed... they get secondary sanctioned? Makes no sense from a diplomatic point of view, until you realize that the sanctions are not meant to stop the war.

If this guess is anywhere remotely near right, then Lebanon's future is very, very dark.
Click to expand...
There are rumors that Israel is trying to reach Daraa. If true, that means Jordan is next in line.
 
_killuminati_

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Lebanon is in big trouble. They lost their strategic rear. Their only remaining lifeline is resupply by sea which is comparatively open and public relative to land links. They won't fall immediately due to their stocks and battle experience, but they are being set up for a total defeat in the next round.

This is a classic move that we've seen before - a limited strike, ceasefire using diplomacy as a smokescreen, cut resupply/reserves, secondary sanctions to choke out, wait for weakening, then finish at much lower cost. A few examples:

1. Iraq (Desert Storm -> Food for Oil -> Occupation of Iraq)
2. Yugoslavia (1991 Yugoslavia civil wars -> Sarajevo Accords -> UN SCR 757 -> Kosovo),
3. Syria (2012 civil war ->
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
->
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
-> Syria 2024)

Prior to the ceasefire + buffer zone agreement in 2019, Syria was not subject to secondary sanctions. Then after the ceasefire is signed... they get secondary sanctioned? Makes no sense from a diplomatic point of view, until you realize that the sanctions are not meant to stop the war.

If this guess is anywhere remotely near right, then Lebanon's future is very, very dark.
Click to expand...
Insightful. The question arises then: if the opponent seeks a genuine ceasefire, how would you proceed (knowing their history of manipulating ceasefires)? If you are the weaker opponent (i.e. Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, etc.), would you reject the ceasefire, and if yes, for how long?

Interestingly (off-topic), Taliban rejected ceasefire and peace proposals from NATO every year since c.2006. Until the very last one, in which NATO exited. But as you pointed out the trend; Taliban got sanctioned after NATO's exit.
 
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W

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Then after the ceasefire is signed... they get secondary sanctioned? Makes no sense from a diplomatic point of view, until you realize that the sanctions are not meant to stop the war."

---

Exactly

(But you must not go beyond Western collective fantasies or you will be silenced)

Best regards, it has been a pleasure to read an intelligent and free-thinking person
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
_killuminati_ said:
Insightful. The question arises then: if the opponent seeks a genuine ceasefire, how would you proceed (knowing their history of manipulating ceasefires)? If you are the weaker opponent (i.e. Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, etc.), would you reject the ceasefire, and if yes, for how long?

Interestingly (off-topic), Taliban rejected ceasefire and peace proposals from NATO every year since c.2006. Until the very last one, in which NATO exited. But as you pointed out the trend; Taliban got sanctioned after NATO's exit.
Click to expand...
IDK, this stuff is way above my paygrade. A politician has to weigh the risk of further conflict and domestic concerns too, this isn't an RTS game. However, Taliban is a good example and follows the East Asian example. Historically, China, North Korea and Vietnam were put under similar sanctions for decades and survived. One thing that I can point out though: none of the East Asian countries obeyed ceasefires either until their demands were met.

1.
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and
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, even
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and
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.
2.
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,
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and
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until the blockade was lifted.
3.
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until 1990 and relations with ASEAN was restored in 1991.
 
D

defenceman

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi,
i think now Israel will give some space to Palestine, in lieu of land grabbed by
themselves in Syria, Turkey will create a buffer zone or like minded management
next to their border probably once no more iranian backed fighters or ammunition
Israel will some extent leave Lebanon according to their desire
and all these need to be done officially under the thumb of Donald Trump in this way
rest of the Middle East bigger country can recognise Israel because DT’s reign of four
years some more countries need to recognise Israel officially
but we need to see how Russian will act on the above mentioned scenario may be a
bargain between Trump & Putin in lieu of Ukrainian scenario too involving Syrian side
thank you
 
J

JJD1803

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel at this point neighbors a Turkish vilayet. Turkey wanted to be leader of the Sunni Islamic world. Well they finally will have a Muslim brotherhood protectorate we shall see how they’ll manage this.
 
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