Lebanon is in big trouble. They lost their strategic rear. Their only remaining lifeline is resupply by sea which is comparatively open and public relative to land links. They won't fall immediately due to their stocks and battle experience, but they are being set up for a total defeat in the next round.
This is a classic move that we've seen before - a limited strike, ceasefire using diplomacy as a smokescreen, cut resupply/reserves, secondary sanctions to choke out, wait for weakening, then finish at much lower cost. A few examples:
1. Iraq (Desert Storm -> Food for Oil -> Occupation of Iraq)
2. Yugoslavia (1991 Yugoslavia civil wars -> Sarajevo Accords -> UN SCR 757 -> Kosovo),
3. Syria (2012 civil war ->
->
-> Syria 2024)
Prior to the ceasefire + buffer zone agreement in 2019, Syria was not subject to secondary sanctions. Then after the ceasefire is signed... they get secondary sanctioned? Makes no sense from a diplomatic point of view, until you realize that the sanctions are not meant to stop the war.
If this guess is anywhere remotely near right, then Lebanon's future is very, very dark.
