Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

JJD1803 said:

Following this conflict closely since 2011 it’s going the same way as the big Aleppo offensives in 2015. As someone from twitter said these offensives always go the same way

The Syrian rebels always do the same mistakes leading to heavy losses. The 2015 Aleppo and Hama offensives broke the back of the movement. They do these big arrow offensives. The Syrians and their allies retreat to more defensive positions. Bog down the fighters on killing fields with heavy aerial and artillery bombardment. Target their supply lines and rear. Then when the offensive is totally depleted launch a counterattack. Let’s be clear it’s Erdogan that prevents the Syrian govt from launching a major offensive into Idlib. Because those hundreds of thousands of jihadist would run into Turkey destabilizing the country. So he plays these games of saying ceasefire or agreements to prevent a major offensive. Hopefully this time there is a big offensive to kick the jihadist out of Aleppo and make a serious push to Idlib.

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The only problem with this theory is that the SAA is now weaker than before, the rebels seem to be more motivated and better armed, while the Russians are bogged down in Ukraine, the Iranians are stuck against Israel as well as Hezbollah, so everything favors the rebels to try to have greater chances of capitulating successes in these offensives.

JJD1803 said:

Following this conflict closely since 2011 it’s going the same way as the big Aleppo offensives in 2015. As someone from twitter said these offensives always go the same way

The Syrian rebels always do the same mistakes leading to heavy losses. The 2015 Aleppo and Hama offensives broke the back of the movement. They do these big arrow offensives. The Syrians and their allies retreat to more defensive positions. Bog down the fighters on killing fields with heavy aerial and artillery bombardment. Target their supply lines and rear. Then when the offensive is totally depleted launch a counterattack. Let’s be clear it’s Erdogan that prevents the Syrian govt from launching a major offensive into Idlib. Because those hundreds of thousands of jihadist would run into Turkey destabilizing the country. So he plays these games of saying ceasefire or agreements to prevent a major offensive. Hopefully this time there is a big offensive to kick the jihadist out of Aleppo and make a serious push to Idlib.

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Seems like the government army is already pushing back. Russia is out in force as well, they now have a stronger presence than before due to the general war buildup.

With Europe focused on Ukraine and US unlikely to be favorable to Turkey, the time to free Idlib might be now. Who can help Turkey anymore? Even Israel has become a pariah that Turkey may hesitate to openly associate with.

Sinnavuuty said:

The only problem with this theory is that the SAA is now weaker than before, the rebels seem to be more motivated and better armed, while the Russians are bogged down in Ukraine, the Iranians are stuck against Israel as well as Hezbollah, so everything favors the rebels to try to have greater chances of capitulating successes in these offensives.

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The SAA is the same as it was back in 2016. The SAA is overstretched but has combat experience. The NDF is a massive reserve force but are a light infantry reserve force. Hezbollah apparently has forces in Syria. And Iran has Shia foreign legion in southern Syria at the Golan heights. Will they transfer some of them to Aleppo. Don’t think so. They probably worry about the possibility of an Israeli incursion. The Syrian side has fighters it’s just it will take time to mobilize them for the counterattack. As long as they have their air force and Russian aerial support they can prevent the rebels from taking Aleppo. Things were much worst in 2015.

The problem with the rebels is they do big arrow offensives with no air support. They have taken heavy casualties. They launched big offensives in the 2013/2014/2015 era. When Russia intervened the addition of Russian air power lead to devastating losses. This is the first big Aleppo offensive since 2015. So it too them 9 years to rebuilt their ranks. The Hama and Aleppo offensives were so devastating that the years after the Syrian govt/allies was able to launch big offensives in 2016 and 2017.
The problem was that Erdogan convinced Putin and Assad to de-escalate to bring the war to an end. But it was nothing more than a trick to by the jihadist militants time to rebuild their ranks. Now we see the results. I do think this time there will be a serious push into Idlib but I could see Erdogan risk it all sending Turkish troops to stop the Syrian advances.

Seeing images of supposed Lebanon style Pager/Radio attacks on SAA. Too gruesome to post but seems legitimate/passes the smell check.

JJD1803 said:

They are active in Syria. They’ve basically moved and stayed in Syria thanks to Turkish intelligence. I’ve followed the conflict since 2011 and it seems to me that Russia and China like the arrangement where these jihadist from Central Asia flock to Syria and get killed. And I would imagine that behind the scenes Turkey and Russia have an agreement to not allow these militants leave Syria and go back to Central Asia or in the case of the Ugyurs militants back to China. So Syria becomes a killing fields for them. Although I’m surprised China since it was revealed that Ugyurs militants are fighting in Syria hasn’t sent special forces units to liquidate them. Maybe they think Russia,Iran and the resistance axis is enough to deal with them.

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Funny you mention this. I had this theory as well.
My logic, if Turkey is actually guaranteeing Uighur militants' safety, China would have much worse diplomatic relations with Turkey. However, if you create a funnel where the "potential troublemakers" can leave China, then it makes sense.

CaribouTruth said:

Seeing images of supposed Lebanon style Pager/Radio attacks on SAA. Too gruesome to post but seems legitimate/passes the smell check.

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I mean, the attack begun the day after Netanyahu threatened Assad, so this operation has Israeli fingerprints all over it.

Realistically I can't see the rebels winning if Iraqi militias and Iranian forces fight with the Syrian government and Hezbollah being free to move men to Syria. Now that the frontline is moving again, it will be easier for the Syrians to justify liberating idlib

Minm said:

Realistically I can't see the rebels winning if Iraqi militias and Iranian forces fight with the Syrian government and Hezbollah being free to move men to Syria. Now that the frontline is moving again, it will be easier for the Syrians to justify liberating idlib

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Israel is a far much more dangerous enemy to Hezbolah, I'm pretty sure Hezbolah won't move a single soldier against HTS and will keep them in Lebanon when the ceasefire in Lebanon inevitably collapses. the SAA has enough soldiers for their own needs and whatever gains the HTS achieved will likely be reveresed once the SAA regroups and brings in reinforcements from other regions of Syria. with this offensive the HTS has basically signed their own death warrant. the truce resulted in 5 years of relative peace in north western Syria and Assad was fine with that arrangement. by breaking the truce HTS has basically told Damascus that as long as HTS is alive then they will fight. this means there can only be peace if HTS is dead.

HTS will be crushed. unfortunately it's gonna take quite alot of time, several years probably. and this will distract from the genocide in Gaza. and that is probably the main goal of Turkey/Mossad/CIA unleashing these AlQaeda dogs at this particular time.

by the way HTS is classified as a terrorist organization by the UN and should be dealt with accordingly and they are subject to UN sanctions as a criminal organization so this is not a case of "one man's terrorists are another man's freedom fighters".


any one who supports HTS supports terrorism.

Really shows how treacherous Turkey,Qatar and the Gulf states are. They lured Assad,Iran and even Putin with talks of peace of reconciliation. Just like Minsk Astana agreement it was all a ploy to by time for their jihadist proxies to recover from their disastrous offensives in 2015/2016. Allowing Saudi Arabia,UAE and Turkey into BRICS is going to be a mistake. They are US vassals at the end of the day. I never hyped up Turkey or the Gulf states joining BRICs. They are the ones that could sabotage the whole things for their own personal gain.

There is more and more news that looks like Aleppo has already fallen? Any reliable news from what is going on in Syria now?