Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

TK3600

TK3600

Major
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It seems like the peace only reduce intensity of operation, both sides are still conducting strikes. The negotiation is more or less justifying to domestic audience why Lebanon operation stopped.

I expect renewed pressure in Gaza, heavy ground operation resume. Meanwhile Hezbolah will launch smaller attacks in Israel to keep settlers from return, but no longer expanding scope of settler displacement. I think partly this is due to shorter range missile cannot go past existing zones anymore. It has less to do of wanting a peace settlement.

Effectively it is not a peace treaty. Military situation makes both sides wanting to reduce intensity, and both sides pretend it is about peace. Low intensity combat continues.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

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Also there is the suspect timing of the jihadist, with ties to Israel and not just Turkey, launching an operation right when the "ceasefire" is signed. It kinda looks like Israel is just trying to find someone to hit that can't fight back to do some posturing and coping.
 
J

JJD1803

Junior Member
Registered Member
coolgod said:
Does anyone have more info on ETIM terrorists and their current status in the Syrian civil war? And what's China's response to their terrorists hiding in the middle east.
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They are active in Syria. They’ve basically moved and stayed in Syria thanks to Turkish intelligence. I’ve followed the conflict since 2011 and it seems to me that Russia and China like the arrangement where these jihadist from Central Asia flock to Syria and get killed. And I would imagine that behind the scenes Turkey and Russia have an agreement to not allow these militants leave Syria and go back to Central Asia or in the case of the Ugyurs militants back to China. So Syria becomes a killing fields for them. Although I’m surprised China since it was revealed that Ugyurs militants are fighting in Syria hasn’t sent special forces units to liquidate them. Maybe they think Russia,Iran and the resistance axis is enough to deal with them.
 
coolgod

coolgod

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JJD1803 said:
Although I’m surprised China since it was revealed that Ugyurs militants are fighting in Syria hasn’t sent special forces units to liquidate them. Maybe they think Russia,Iran and the resistance axis is enough to deal with them.
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Yea I was wondering about that part, maybe there are legal reasons why China can't technically kill its own citizens? Does China give Syria and kind of military aid?
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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Minm said:
This doesn't make much sense though. Iran wouldn't want to damage the ceasefire in Lebanon by taking action now.
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Retaliation, if any, will not be linked to the ceasefire with Lebanon, it is a direct attack by Israel against Iran, this is clearly a red line.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has captured 75 percent of Saraqib in the direction of Idlib.

The M5 route is being cut at a second point, this time north of Saraqib.
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HTS appears to be moving towards a siege in Aleppo. They have captured Basratun, A'ajel, Urum al-Kubra, and HTS has attacked al-Radwan from the north and east.
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
JJD1803 said:
They are active in Syria. They’ve basically moved and stayed in Syria thanks to Turkish intelligence. I’ve followed the conflict since 2011 and it seems to me that Russia and China like the arrangement where these jihadist from Central Asia flock to Syria and get killed. And I would imagine that behind the scenes Turkey and Russia have an agreement to not allow these militants leave Syria and go back to Central Asia or in the case of the Ugyurs militants back to China. So Syria becomes a killing fields for them. Although I’m surprised China since it was revealed that Ugyurs militants are fighting in Syria hasn’t sent special forces units to liquidate them. Maybe they think Russia,Iran and the resistance axis is enough to deal with them.
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Why risk Chinese lives to fight a war on foreign soil? It's enough to provide Syria with aid. If the ETIM terrorists return to China, then they can be dealt with.
 
obj 705A

obj 705A

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Sinnavuuty said:
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has captured 75 percent of Saraqib in the direction of Idlib.

The M5 route is being cut at a second point, this time north of Saraqib.
View attachment 140172
View attachment 140171
HTS appears to be moving towards a siege in Aleppo. They have captured Basratun, A'ajel, Urum al-Kubra, and HTS has attacked al-Radwan from the north and east.
View attachment 140173
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Islamic militants launch surprise attack in Syria​


Islamist militants have staged a large-scale attack in Syria’s Aleppo and Idlib provinces, the state-run SANA news agency in Damascus has reported. The attack is the first such incident in years.

The terrorist group Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, launched the attack on Wednesday, according to SANA. Fighting is reportedly ongoing.

The militants are said to have overrun at least ten areas previously under the control of the Syrian military, Al Jazeera reported on Thursday.

HTS is considered a terrorist organization by Syria, Russia, the US, and several other countries.

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Erdogan proves himself time and time again to be an agent of NATO & the Zionists. these terrorists are backed by Turkey. Syria represents one of the main supply routes for Hezbolah. on one hand he says he opposes Israel but on the other hand he unleashes his dogs to open a second front on Iran & it's allies to distract them from the fight with Israel. the Turkish government is all talk no action. or to be more accurate the only action they show is action that is favorable to Israel.
 
T

TPenglake

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IRGC general killed during the latest Syria offensive.

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Honestly now was as good of a time as any for HTS to conduct this offensive, since almost all foreign parties that played a role in guaranteeing Bashar Al-Assad's survival during the 1st phase of the Syrian Civil War are pretty battered right now. Foreign expedition wise, on top of Russia being pre-occupied in Ukraine Wagner's been suffering some pretty major defeats in Africa. Hezbollah received a pretty good drubbing at the hands of the Israelis recently, perhaps not sapping their combat power completely, but definately hampering their ability to deploy Hezbollah forces in a foreign contingency since most are all needed in Lebanon at the moment. Iran just frankly has proven pretty feckless in meeting America and Israel's transgressions with any meaningful deterrence of its own.

As always throw in a big question mark to how the front will play out, since I'm just about done making hamfisted predictions on tactical situations in ongoing wars, but the existing conditions that laid the groundwork for the current offensive are pretty clear.
 
J

JJD1803

Junior Member
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Following this conflict closely since 2011 it’s going the same way as the big Aleppo offensives in 2015. As someone from twitter said these offensives always go the same way
The Syrian Army's Response to Terrorist Attacks

Phase One
The first phase involves absorbing the massive attack launched by terrorists. This occasionally requires temporarily evacuating certain positions and villages for a short period. Breaches may occur during this phase due to the sheer size of the enemy's attacking force, particularly as they rely heavily on infiltrators and show little concern for their own human losses.

Phase Two
Following the absorption of the attack, the focus shifts to turning the breach zones into kill zones and operational theatres aimed at destroying the attacking waves and formations. This phase can take time, with its primary objective being to exhaust the terrorists both in manpower and equipment. It also includes targeting supply lines, bases, and ammunition depots to continuously weaken them until they are fully depleted.

Phase Three
This phase runs parallel to Phase Two and involves mobilizing forces in the rear to prepare for a wide-scale counteroffensive. Simultaneously, efforts to destroy the waves of terrorist attacks and deplete their manpower and logistical capacities continue. Once sufficient depletion is achieved, the counteroffensive is launched, with forces advancing into enemy-held areas.

Launching the Counteroffensive
The counteroffensive launch may take anywhere from hours to days or even weeks, depending on the size of the enemy's attacking force and the extent of depletion achieved. This strategy has been implemented many times before, often resulting in successfully liberating new areas previously under terrorist control.

The Decisive Outcome
While the terrorists may feel temporarily victorious for hours, days, or even weeks, potentially bolstered by external support from adversaries like Israel through anticipated attacks, the ultimate outcome will be decisive. The counteroffensive may evolve into a wide-scale military operation aimed at reclaiming villages and towns along the M4 highway, thus restoring control and shifting the balance in favour of the Syrian Army.
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The Syrian rebels always do the same mistakes leading to heavy losses. The 2015 Aleppo and Hama offensives broke the back of the movement. They do these big arrow offensives. The Syrians and their allies retreat to more defensive positions. Bog down the fighters on killing fields with heavy aerial and artillery bombardment. Target their supply lines and rear. Then when the offensive is totally depleted launch a counterattack. Let’s be clear it’s Erdogan that prevents the Syrian govt from launching a major offensive into Idlib. Because those hundreds of thousands of jihadist would run into Turkey destabilizing the country. So he plays these games of saying ceasefire or agreements to prevent a major offensive. Hopefully this time there is a big offensive to kick the jihadist out of Aleppo and make a serious push to Idlib.
 
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