Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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That is the victory.
It’s not a return to the status quo, because the status quo didn’t involve Israel bombing/occupying Gaza.
My post of "on protracted warfare" was deleted. It is unjustified in my opinion, but I digress. I stand my point on the strategic situation: A protracted warfare is the suitable means to defeat Israel.
While IDF has some military advantage, it as a nation is weak to attrition. The military advantage is insufficient to win in short term, and that makes attrition possible.
I believe a ceasefire is not suitable for resistence group. Prolong the combat is suffering to them, but more so to the warmonging factions in Israel.
That is not to say, peace should be outright rejected. There must be a facade of reasonableness. The government could talk, but Hezbolah could act on their own. "Sorry, cant do nothing to these non-government entity, we tried." The same negotiation tactics as democracy break agreements when next party come through.
While IDF has some military advantage, it as a nation is weak to attrition. The military advantage is insufficient to win in short term, and that makes attrition possible.
I believe a ceasefire is not suitable for resistence group. Prolong the combat is suffering to them, but more so to the warmonging factions in Israel.
That is not to say, peace should be outright rejected. There must be a facade of reasonableness. The government could talk, but Hezbolah could act on their own. "Sorry, cant do nothing to these non-government entity, we tried." The same negotiation tactics as democracy break agreements when next party come through.
I think israel gained a lot in that they managed to do a lot in terms of assassinating top hezbollah figures, and taking out its entire mid-level bureaucrats. the problem is this was supposed to be the "best opportunity" to defeat hezbollah, israel was not able to achieve this. so in the short term, they took a lot of economic damage themselves, and could not make headway into lebanon even after taking all the casualty, in the long term, they have allowed hezbollah to survive even with all the element of surprise. i dont think israelis consider this a victory.
It is a return to the status quo before October 7th, Israel only forced Hezbollah to no link its participation in the war because of Gaza, Israel lost men and a lot of equipment for absolutely no temporary gain, they failed to overthrow Hezbollah even playing with all the cards they had available.
This is far from a strategic victory.
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So apparently Israel was supposed to take 60 days to retreat, but I'm seeing reports that they have abandoned most of their positions and left Lebanon. Middle East Spectator has just made many posts in the past couple of hours showing people returning to their border villages while waving Hezbollah flags and celebrating right infront of Merkava tanks, taking down and burning Israeli flags, posing for photos with portraits of Nasrallah. There are even videos of Hezbollah rocket launchers travelling back south on the highway in broad daylight. Israelis did warn people not to go back south just yet, but they don't appear to be giving a damn. MES reports that Israeli media is going crazy over this. The European colonialists are demoralized and are considering this a total defeat.
There are reports that a Hezbollah unit that was presumed dead, have reestablished contact with their command and appear to be okay. Sunnis are celebrating with Shia and congratulating Hezbollah on their victory. Iran, Hamas, and Ansarallah have also congratulated Hezbollah.
Too many things to post, but here is the summary:
There are reports that a Hezbollah unit that was presumed dead, have reestablished contact with their command and appear to be okay. Sunnis are celebrating with Shia and congratulating Hezbollah on their victory. Iran, Hamas, and Ansarallah have also congratulated Hezbollah.
Too many things to post, but here is the summary:
You are ignoring the fact that Yemen is still blocking the Red Sea, the US and Israel reputation and economy being in shambles, Israel's economy being shrunk by like 30% and their northern settlements being flattened, the many countries that have cut ties with Israel, the around one million that have left Israel etc etc.. The Muslim population still feel this and will continue to exert pressure on their governments not to reestablish ties with the Crazies in the insane asylum that is Israel and the US. Non of these things are returning to the status quo either and there is a big possibility that the situation in that regard will continue to deteriorate.
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Yeah, I’d agree that it’s not an overwhelming or unconditional victory. They didn’t achieve everything they’d have liked, but they achieved their core goal of halting the Hezbollah fire into the northern settlements, without having to compromise on their occupation of Gaza.
I’ll change my mind if Hezbollah continue firing at the northern settlements. If those remain depopulated, then the pressure on Israel remains. In that case, this ceasefire will end up as nothing more than a retreat from Lebanese land.
West-backed rebels have begun a major operation against the Syrian government in order to disrupt the Lebanese Hezbollah's supply lines
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This isn’t a strategic victory for Israel. Let’s look at the facts. Israel’s goals was to destroy Hezbollah and push them to the Litani river and create a buffer zone. That didn’t happen. They only pushed 4-5 kilometers and got quickly bogged down. Hezbollah was able to rain fire to Haifa and Tel Aviv doing further damage to their economy. Did they do damage to Hezbollah? They did. These were tactical victories but it didn’t yield any results. They killed senior leadership with targeted bombings and the pager attacks. They killed Nasrallah which was a blow but it didn’t affect the Hezbollah military command that much. Hezbollah was able to hold its ground and provide stiff resistance. Israel thought after these assassinations all they had to do was do a ground invasion and Hezbollah would have collapsed. It didn’t happen. They got over confident.
Another factor why Israel agreed to the ceasefire is because they never do their wars in the late fall and winter. The reason it hinders their jets. Israel depends on their fighter jets. So the weather changing is not best suit for their only major advantage. This is why I expect this war to restart again likely in the spring or summer of next year. Plus with Trump coming back he will give Israel carte Blanche to do whatever in the region. So I see the fighting restart again soon.
When looking at Hebrew media this cessation of hostilities is looked at negatively in Israel. You have mayors and citizens of the north have all stated they will not go back. There is rage and fury within Israeli society about this deal because essentially it goes back to the status quo before October 8th. It is only a 60 day temporary ceasefire which means after 60 days the fighting may restart.
The IDF have stated they’ll still keep troops on the border with Lebanon which means Israel won’t bring all of its ground power to bear in Gaza. Which the few troops they have left in Gaza will continue to be attrited. And this overstretches Israel. Means more reservist mobilized which does further damage to their economy. Yemen and Iraq have both hinted they will still keep striking Israel despite what happens in Lebanon. There is no doubt Hezbollah took hits but Israel was eager to agreee to the ceasefire for heavy domestic pressure. Hezbollah is going to take this time to rest,rearm, reshuffle themselves.
There is a major reason why Netanyahu said that Syria better watch out. It’s no coincidence that the day after the ceasefire was agreed the Syrian jihadist rebels launched a major offensive in west Aleppo. There will likely be increased attacks on Syria. However the big thing in the background of all of this True Promise 3. Marandi who has ties with the Iranian government has confirmed it is going to happen and it be a devastating blow to Israel. So in the end Israel is still in a perilous strategic position.
Another factor why Israel agreed to the ceasefire is because they never do their wars in the late fall and winter. The reason it hinders their jets. Israel depends on their fighter jets. So the weather changing is not best suit for their only major advantage. This is why I expect this war to restart again likely in the spring or summer of next year. Plus with Trump coming back he will give Israel carte Blanche to do whatever in the region. So I see the fighting restart again soon.
When looking at Hebrew media this cessation of hostilities is looked at negatively in Israel. You have mayors and citizens of the north have all stated they will not go back. There is rage and fury within Israeli society about this deal because essentially it goes back to the status quo before October 8th. It is only a 60 day temporary ceasefire which means after 60 days the fighting may restart.
The IDF have stated they’ll still keep troops on the border with Lebanon which means Israel won’t bring all of its ground power to bear in Gaza. Which the few troops they have left in Gaza will continue to be attrited. And this overstretches Israel. Means more reservist mobilized which does further damage to their economy. Yemen and Iraq have both hinted they will still keep striking Israel despite what happens in Lebanon. There is no doubt Hezbollah took hits but Israel was eager to agreee to the ceasefire for heavy domestic pressure. Hezbollah is going to take this time to rest,rearm, reshuffle themselves.
There is a major reason why Netanyahu said that Syria better watch out. It’s no coincidence that the day after the ceasefire was agreed the Syrian jihadist rebels launched a major offensive in west Aleppo. There will likely be increased attacks on Syria. However the big thing in the background of all of this True Promise 3. Marandi who has ties with the Iranian government has confirmed it is going to happen and it be a devastating blow to Israel. So in the end Israel is still in a perilous strategic position.
This doesn't make much sense though. Iran wouldn't want to damage the ceasefire in Lebanon by taking action now.
The rebel offensive in Syria also seems very poorly timed, just in time for Hezbollah to move fighters out of Southern Lebanon temporarily and fight in Syria for a while. Maybe they'll have to fight the rebels for 60 days before they return to South of the litani river
None of them will want to start any conflict after Trump gets into office. He's already taking credit for peace in Lebanon. Nobody wants to draw American fire for ruining trump's story that he's bringing peace to the region