Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Equation

Lieutenant General
I like this guy Norman Finkelstein. He tells it like it is, what we always knew about it. For the record, he is a Jew and his parents were victims of the holocaust. This is his take about Israel oppression of Palestine. He has many other videos about him arguing vehemently against Zionist establishments on YouTube.


Norman Finkelstein on Jewish elites and their influence in the US​



Israel-Hamas War: Norman Finkelstein vs Rabbi Shmuley | Full Debate​

 

Michaelsinodef

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Minm

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Would be great if it is the case.

But even if not, Hezbollah still functions (and even when he was alive, he wasn't the top military guy, although ofc top person in Hezbollah, and the top military guy should still be alive and well).
In the worst case, Iran can always send irgc officers as commanders. Hezbollah won't be defeated by decapitation. The only way to defeat them is to delete their manpower through genocide or simply letting Lebanon flourish and returning the stolen land, which would deprive Hezbollah of any justification for fighting Israel
 

Zichan

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It’s pretty much confirmed. The reason why Israel hasn’t retaliated to Iran yet and why the US is deploying THAAD is because Israel is critically low on interceptors. From the Financial Times:

Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defences to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts.


The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel's protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.


"Israel's munitions issue is serious," said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defence official with responsibility for the Middle East.”


During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv,” said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence. “It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed.”
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
While reading about Israel's strikes on Syrian radar sites in the past few days, I came across a report that IDF F-35I fighters were able to successfully target and neutralize Syria's JY-27 radars, which purportedly were designed to track LO/VLO fighters, in 2019.

Does anyone have any more details of the strike? I would be interested to know if the radars were operational on that day and what version (vanilla JY-27 or JY-27A) were they.

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Source: Israeli F-35 destroyed Chinese-made radar during airstrikes in Syria

Last month, an Israeli satellite imagery analysis company ImageSat confirmed that Chinese-made JY-27 radar of the Syrian Air Defense at Damascus airport destroyed by Israeli airstrikes on January 20th.

No airstrike details were given and the quoted ImageSat did also not contain any further information but some source said that radar was destroyed by Israeli F-35i Adir fighter jets.

The source claims that F-35i Adir fighter jet of the Israeli Air Force has destroyed Chinese design JY-27 radar of the Syrian Air Defense near Damascus International Airport on 20 January.

The JY-27 radar of the Chinese manufacturer CETC is a fully solid-state and fully coherent long-range early warning system. It is designed and developed to provide early warning information and detect low-observable air targets in so-called “Stealth technology”, included F-35 and F-22 fighter aircraft. Besides, it provides the early warning information for weapons system as well.

Representatives of the Israeli Air Force refused to comment on this issue.

In fact, the recent raids reveal Israel’s continuing ability to defeat Syrian air defense facilities, but some military experts said that radar was destroyed by the kamikaze-drone.

For reference, F-35I Adir (“Mighty One” in Hebrew) is a modified Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fifth-generation multirole stealth fighter jet of Israel Defense Forces.

 

sheogorath

Major
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The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel's protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.

Is not like the US has that many THAAD interceptors to begin with, specially when other theaters have been prioritized, and with a production rate of 50 missiles per year. Also the discussion on the media around THAAD feels a lot like the Ukranian wunderwaffen talk, when Arrow fills a similar role.


Also seems North Korea has provided Iran with some Juche Necromancy as well. Esmail Qaani, claimed to have been killed by Israel earlier in the month, shows up in Tehran

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Sinnavuuty

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While reading about Israel's strikes on Syrian radar sites in the past few days, I came across a report that IDF F-35I fighters were able to successfully target and neutralize Syria's JY-27 radars, which purportedly were designed to track LO/VLO fighters, in 2019.

Does anyone have any more details of the strike? I would be interested to know if the radars were operational on that day and what version (vanilla JY-27 or JY-27A) were they.

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It was the first version, the JY-27. China apparently
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two radars. It appears to have a range of
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than 400 km.
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.
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.

The "A" version I think was only introduced in the year of the attack and its range
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500 km.

Furthermore, there is no confirmation whatsoever that it was an F-35; the text itself reports that some experts claim that it may have been a suicide drone attack. Others report that it was actually an attack with an F-16 flying at low altitude.

There is no way to confirm anything about this. Everything is just speculation, including the destruction of the radar is questionable, because according to some sources -
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the Chinese Sina, the radar was restored.
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Even if the radar was destroyed as part of the stated claim, the JY-27 radar could have detected the IAF strike aircraft but prevented Syria from reacting because of the
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of a large part of its air defense (including long-range SAMs) in 2018-2020.

That is why what matters is not simply “a radar”, but an integrated system of radars that act together (just like any other). However, everything in the military sphere has a weakness. EVERYTHING. The amount of energy that this radar must emit is not small, which makes it easier to locate and makes it more vulnerable to attacks from anti-radiation missiles.

That said, it was not clear what the ECCM capability is, after all we all know that any attack employed will not be carried out by just one F-35 but by a Strike Package, the F-35 has the ability to act as a small ECM platform and act in a network with other F-35 aircraft. A Strike Package using F-35s and EW aircraft has enormous jamming potential and requires much less energy to hide stealth aircraft than non-stealth ones.

The AARGM has an active mode and can engage any radar operating in any band and even when turned off. In fact, such a radar can be detected by the radar of a stealth fighter or bomber in SAR mode at a great distance and can be attacked in several ways, including JDAM, SDB, cruise missiles, etc. The survival of these radars is absolutely fearful in the first hours of a war, Russia itself disabled a large part of Ukraine's long-range scanning radars in the early days. And as far as we know, the HARM/AARGM is not sensitive to the VHF band but is to the UHF, L, S, C and X. On the other hand, it is known that the VHF band is highly prone to electronic jamming. In other words, the immense radar, visual and thermal signature of the transmitting antennas, the difficulty of relocation and the fragility in the face of ECMs, provide the answer to neutralizing these “anti-stealth” radars.

MALDs in operation, capable of simulating anything from a stealth fighter to a B-52 bomber and with a range of 1000 km. Some even (J and X) have active jamming and direct attack capabilities. This adds fuel to the fire.

As for cruise missiles, a JASSM flies its 370 km in less than 8 minutes and can be updated via datalink. But as far as we know, it is not capable of hitting moving targets, only fixed and stationary targets. Another point is the entry into operation of the new NGJ jamming pods on the EA-18G and the innate capability of the F-35 in electronic attack through the ASQ-239 Barracuda.

As for defense, the jamming countermeasures (ECM of ground systems with superior power and processing), distances (JDAM and SDB still have to get there), shooting solution (KB “Radar” defense complexes are always nearby emitting lots of false signals – thermal and EM) and self-defense units (Buk, Tor, Pantsir...) around. Soon it will be necessary to set up a task force to hunt each of these radars instead of sending an AGM-88. Remembering that (the radars) can be EASILY moved in less than half an hour (in the case of Nebo-M less than 15 minutes), cruise missiles are not an efficient solution.

In reality, VHF radars create a kind of “image” for the other systems that stop wasting time (literally) and focus on a certain beam, on a certain limited degree of vision, in a defined sector, thus drastically increasing (mathematically speaking) sensitivity and precision. The X/S radars are always on the side (crossing the beams) like hunters and they are the ones who “score the goal”. And there is one more thing. In a battery of the S-300/S-400 type there are always some launchers on standby with “special charge” missiles (nomenclature of nuclear warheads of the USSR and modern Russia). These do not require a precision firing solution. Technically speaking they can be used against a mass attack with “more or less” coordinates.
 

Sinnavuuty

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It was the first version, the JY-27. China apparently
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two radars. It appears to have a range of
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than 400 km.
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.
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.
That's why I find these useless, meaningless comparisons invalid. Here's another example:
Diagram by the respected Carlo Kopp of the Air Power Australia website;
JSF-RCS-Angles-4.pngView attachment 137317
According to him, an F-35 is capable of approaching an S-300/400 site to the point of launching its SDBs (40 miles), but as soon as it evades and turns back to the anti-aircraft system, it becomes visible to microwave radars and can be engaged by missiles (Mach 5) that will shoot it down at some point between 85 and 154 seconds after it opens the bomb bay (at which point it starts to be tracked) and launches its 8 SDBs.

This would be completely correct if:

1- the Americans and all users do not know this;

2- if the F-35's rear RCS is actually comparable to a conventional fighter, which would be absurd;

3- if the SDBs only have a 40-mile range when fired from the F-35;

4- if the fighter turns back to the SAM system;

5- if there is no other F-35 interfering with its AESA on the S-300/400 radar system until the bombs arrive (it takes about 4 to 5 minutes for the bombs to travel those 40 miles);

6- if we do not take into account that there are other weapons that can be used against SAMs and not only SDBs, for example, the British are developing the Spear, with a 100-mile range;

7- if the F-35 does not use electronic countermeasures to defend itself against the missiles, for example, by launching “chaffs” or ejecting more sophisticated “decoys”;

8- if the F-35 does not have supercruise capability; 9- if the most suitable fighter to penetrate this type of SAM site is not the F-22; 10- if the American forces are naive enough not to use other support aircraft in an attack of this magnitude.

If we imagine that an IADS composed of S-300/400 will be attacked by about 8 F-35s, 6 of which are responsible for bombing (at least 48 SDBs) and two for electronic jamming.

Some time ago, there was much talk that Soviet fighters were able to escape detection by the F-15's radars using the “cobra” maneuver and disappearing from the radar by implementing a trajectory perpendicular to the radar beam. So, if it was possible for the Soviet fighters to do this, it is quite possible for the F-35, after dropping its bombs, not to turn its most vulnerable part towards the enemy, but to remain on a perpendicular trajectory, exposing its side, which is much stealthier than its vulnerable rear.

However, reality is very different from these unrealistic simulations and analyses. It is unlikely that the use of stealth aircraft against a Russian or Chinese IADS would be a walk in the park, although the attacker always has the advantage and that anti-aircraft defense systems are systems that are on the defensive, under attack, and are at a disadvantage simply because they do not have the initiative to take action. Stealth allows the attacking aircraft to take the initiative and the anti-aircraft system to remain on the defensive, which in itself is a disadvantage. There would be losses of F-35s if they were to scramble them to attack a dense site of S-300/400s. However, stealth allows the system to be penetrated, which would otherwise be very costly.

If an F-18 were to do the job, it would have to use massive ECM, long-range weapons (HARM/AARGM missiles) and decoy missiles and would have to face much more certainty of air opposition.

On the Russian side, there is a high chance that they will use their C-PGM (Pantsir) systems to intercept many of the bombs dropped, which would require a saturation attack.

There is a future possibility of an increase from 8 to 12 SDBs dropped by the F-35A and C, which would mean that an attack by 8 fighters could drop almost 100 high-precision and autonomous bombs.

The Russians wisely implemented mobility in their radars and SAM systems, but somewhat belatedly, since today reconnaissance is mostly done in real time and the use of datalink and data fusion is widespread.

A few years ago, anti-aircraft defense sites were discovered via photo or electronic reconnaissance satellites or by reconnaissance aircraft, which required more planning time, but today, this can be done in real time and even by fighters and bombers themselves.

Using the capabilities of synthetic aperture radars (SAR), moving target indicator (MTI) and automatic target recognition (ATR) capabilities, as well as ELINT systems, a fighter or bomber can, on its own, discover its targets and carry out the attack in real time.

The F-35's SAR mode can identify targets and extract their geographic coordinates, and SDB bombs can be fueled with these coordinates and dropped. Today, the ability to move quickly is no longer a guarantee of survival, this is even worse with the use of hypersonic missiles that can disable a SAM site in an extremely short time.
 

_killuminati_

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The Israel Defence Forces said the soldiers killed were all 19 years old.
All killed at dinner were 19yo. All bloody teenagers. Indicates manpower shortage.

Is not like the US has that many THAAD interceptors to begin with, specially when other theaters have been prioritized, and with a production rate of 50 missiles per year. Also the discussion on the media around THAAD feels a lot like the Ukranian wunderwaffen talk, when Arrow fills a similar role.
50? Or 12/year.
_________

THAAD arrived yesterday from Alabama
Screenshot_20241014-193056_Flightradar24.jpgScreenshot_20241014-193032_Flightradar24.jpg
 
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