Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Netanyahu: UN must withdraw Lebanon peacekeepers, Hezbollah using them as human shield​

2 troops seriously injured in south Lebanon * IDF presses north Gaza offensive * Rocket fire at northern towns, no injuries * Ministers approves 2nd national day of mourning for Oct. 7​

Looks like Israel wants to push forward in Lebanon very soon.

October is seeming to be a deadly month for the IOF. They are suffering casualties in Gaza and south Lebanon. Israel is not built to fight a war of attrition. This could explain why so many Israeli officer have resigned. They are looking at this insanity with alarm. I cannot see Israel maintaining this multi war of attrition for another year. Hospitals in Safed have stated since the Israeli ground incursion into south Lebanon started they’ve received 100 wounded soldiers. And we are in the early stages of this war. Today the number of wounded from the Ramia ambush in Lebanon is at 27 with 5 killed. Apparently a group of Israeli soldiers got hit from
Hezbollah deadly Burkan rocket. And this is before they make their major push into Lebanon. T

The IOF still fall under deadly ambushes in Gaza. They have taken some losses in the West Bank. At a certain point something will break. At this current rate do we really think they can maintain this level of operations for another year? Not to mention the economic ramifications of this war going on longer? My cynical take is the Israeli leadership knows this and wants to start the regional war so the US can save them. Dangerous times we are living in. Israel is not a rational actor.

I think US will go all in. Like, one last hurray for the empire. They will send in the ground force to save Israel. Israel do not mind the bad casualty because their own force will not be the decisive element. Troops already deployed, just need the order.

It will happen after election.

JJD1803 said:

October is seeming to be a deadly month for the IOF. They are suffering casualties in Gaza and south Lebanon. Israel is not built to fight a war of attrition. This could explain why so many Israeli officer have resigned. They are looking at this insanity with alarm. I cannot see Israel maintaining this multi war of attrition for another year. Hospitals in Safed have stated since the Israeli ground incursion into south Lebanon started they’ve received 100 wounded soldiers. And we are in the early stages of this war. Today the number of wounded from the Ramia ambush in Lebanon is at 27 with 5 killed. Apparently a group of Israeli soldiers got hit from
Hezbollah deadly Burkan rocket. And this is before they make their major push into Lebanon. T

The IOF still fall under deadly ambushes in Gaza. They have taken some losses in the West Bank. At a certain point something will break. At this current rate do we really think they can maintain this level of operations for another year? Not to mention the economic ramifications of this war going on longer? My cynical take is the Israeli leadership knows this and wants to start the regional war so the US can save them. Dangerous times we are living in. Israel is not a rational actor.

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Israel has very strong demographics, that plus near endless military and financial supports from abroad means it can keep up high intensity warfare forever.

We aren't talking about a dying country like Ukraine; facing irreversible demographic and economic collapse.
It's the exact opposite; a state built from the ground up for the sole purpose of waging war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine had 10x the population of Israel - while this is still 3x more, Israel now has more births; dictating the demographic future. Israel aims to keep it's population growing at a rapid pace, both requiring and enabling ever more war for lebensraum.

Hezbollah appear to be increasing the intensity of their strikes and complexity of their attacks and scoring major successes in the process.


Several MEDEVAC Helicopters and Ambulances are at the Site of the Drone Impact in Binyamina, which is believed to have Directly Struck a Dining Facility being used by Israeli Soldiers, injuring 20.


Video from right after Hezbollah drone strike on a IDF cafeteria


The US Department of Defense, following Biden's decision, will send a THAAD air defense battery to Israel along with US military personnel for its maintenance and use - Pentagon

Proton said:

Israel has very strong demographics, that plus near endless military and financial supports from abroad means it can keep up high intensity warfare forever.

We aren't talking about a dying country like Ukraine; facing irreversible demographic and economic collapse.
It's the exact opposite; a state built from the ground up for the sole purpose of waging war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine had 10x the population of Israel - while this is still 3x more, Israel now has more births; dictating the demographic future. Israel aims to keep it's population growing at a rapid pace, both requiring and enabling ever more war for lebensraum.

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You are not taking into account the hundreds of thousands of people that are running away, and we are hearing more and more on the news that these people are actually seeking to stay out and find stability elsewhere as the situation in the region gets more and more unstable. Extending the length of a conflict in order to cause an immigration crisis, is a pivotal part of attrition, as rapidly ending a conflict does not give immigrants enough time to build foundations in the places they are immigrating to. This works in favour of the resistance as most Israelis are double citizenship and not many want to take in the Arabs, because the West is a racist supremacist society that considers Arabs terrorists and does not welcome them with open arms like they do their civilized Israeli brothers and sisters. The Arabs will mostly immigrate to Syria, which is still on the same border. Also the fact that the IDF got pushed out of Lebanon and Egypt in the past alone contradict this nonsensical argument that they can wage wars "forever".

Proton said:

Israel has very strong demographics, that plus near endless military and financial supports from abroad means it can keep up high intensity warfare forever.

We aren't talking about a dying country like Ukraine; facing irreversible demographic and economic collapse.
It's the exact opposite; a state built from the ground up for the sole purpose of waging war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine had 10x the population of Israel - while this is still 3x more, Israel now has more births; dictating the demographic future. Israel aims to keep its population growing at a rapid pace, both requiring and enabling ever more war for lebensraum.

Click to expand...

Highly disagree. Israel is a small nation that is struggling to get more manpower for the many front they are fighting. Their way of fighting wars is short dynamic wars. Not forever wars against insurgents. Weeks ago the IDF said they are short of 10k men. They simply don’t have the manpower to keep this going. Today Israel took more losses in south Lebanon and northern Israel. Drone strike in Haifa has injured 67 Israeli soldiers with 3 fatalities so far. This morning they lost 5 soldiers and 27 wounded from a Burkan rocket from Hezbollah. It’s death by 1000 cuts. If they are having manpower shortages because of people fleeing, reservist refusing their mobilization orders. You think if they go full scale invasion of south Lebanon it will get better?

It doesn’t help that Israelis are fleeing the country. Read this article.

And when you look at the economic data foreign investment has gone down 90%. Israel has broken the deficit 3 times already. And they are in a debt trap. They are taking more credit to pay of the interest of their debts. 40k small businesses has closed with 20k closing by the end of the year. This is not sustainable for Israel. And if Iran hits them hard in retaliation after an Israeli strike their economic situation will border on collapse.

JJD1803 said:

Highly disagree. Israel is a small nation that is struggling to get more manpower for the many front they are fighting. Their way of fighting wars is short dynamic wars. Not forever wars against insurgents. Weeks ago the IDF said they are short of 10k men. They simply don’t have the manpower to keep this going. Today Israel took more losses in south Lebanon and northern Israel. Drone strike in Haifa has injured 67 Israeli soldiers with 3 fatalities so far. This morning they lost 5 soldiers and 27 wounded from a Burkan rocket from Hezbollah. It’s death by 1000 cuts. If they are having manpower shortages because of people fleeing, reservist refusing their mobilization orders. You think if they go full scale invasion of south Lebanon it will get better?

It doesn’t help that Israelis are fleeing the country. Read this article.

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And when you look at the economic data foreign investment has gone down 90%. Israel has broken the deficit 3 times already. And they are in a debt trap. They are taking more credit to pay of the interest of their debts. 40k small businesses has closed with 20k closing by the end of the year. This is not sustainable for Israel. And if Iran hits them hard in retaliation after an Israeli strike their economic situation will border on collapse.

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IDF fights with an extreme superiority in forces, they have around half a million soldiers and are fighting at most a dozen thousand in Gaza, as well as a 50 mile low intensity frontline against Hezbollah/Lebanon.
The total level of threat they face seems similar to the Ukrainian Kursk invasion, if they had similar forces to the Russians that could be fine - but they have 10 times more as well as total air supremacy, given the lack of f-16 operations in Ukraine it seems plausible they are allocated almost the entire sustained NATO airforce generation.

Your narrative on demographics is taken from the first few decades of Israels existence, when they had limited demographics and faced a coalition of Arab states.
Israels economy had a shock 6% decline in q4 2023, but q1 2024 saw a bounce back and since then it's stabilized. A 8% budget deficit is high, but hardly worrying while at war.

Proton said:

IDF fights with an extreme superiority in forces, they have around half a million soldiers and are fighting at most a dozen thousand in Gaza, as well as a 50 mile low intensity frontline against Hezbollah/Lebanon.
The total level of threat they face seems similar to the Ukrainian Kursk invasion, if they had similar forces to the Russians that could be fine - but they have 10 times more as well as total air supremacy, given the lack of f-16 operations in Ukraine it seems plausible they are allocated almost the entire sustained NATO airforce generation.

Your narrative on demographics is taken from the first few decades of Israels existence, when they had limited demographics and faced a coalition of Arab states.
Israels economy had a shock 6% decline in q4 2023, but q1 2024 saw a bounce back and since then it's stabilized. A 8% budget deficit is high, but hardly worrying while at war.

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Israel won't collapse. Industrial nations are very resilient. North Korea and Iran have faced far worse from sanctions and they're doing ok. And with US support, Israel will keep going for as long as that support lasts.

But you have to acknowledge that this isn't cost free. Israeli society is becoming more extremist. Any normal human beings are leaving, so you end up with a mixture of radical Jewish Nazis settlers and religious extremists who refuse to fight. Most western citizens have very little sympathy for them. The war is forcing Israel to become ever more radical and they will become what people have always accused them to be: an apartheid state, a new form of Jewish Nazism.

The reputational costs for the whole west are enormous and the balance of power is shifting. Iran is the first state that managed to harm Israel without external superpower support. If the US ever drops their support or loses a Pacific war, Israeli terrorism will be unsustainable.

Israel had this chance today to become a normal country and make peace with the Palestinians on favourable terms from a position of strength. Instead, netanyahu is condemning the Israeli project to remain at risk for the foreseeable future

Proton said:

IDF fights with an extreme superiority in forces, they have around half a million soldiers and are fighting at most a dozen thousand in Gaza, as well as a 50 mile low intensity frontline against Hezbollah/Lebanon.
The total level of threat they face seems similar to the Ukrainian Kursk invasion, if they had similar forces to the Russians that could be fine - but they have 10 times more

Click to expand...

On a purely numeric level maybe? But not all 500k are at the front at all time, because they're conscripts. The 50k contingent in Kursk is deceptive. Russia can rotate fresh troops to the 50k whenever they're wounded, 500k is Israel's whole conscripted manpower pool.

While on paper the Israeli force is impressive if mainly in size, in practice it has somehow underperformed a lot, not being able to inflict disabling casualties on even just Hamas.

The individual Russian soldier can call in more fire support, has more vehicles and seems to be better doctrinally prepared as well. Israel is only capable of supporting offensives with around 1000+ munitions hits a day during its peak. While Russia often outputs anywhere from 5000 to 20000+ munitions a day.

Proton said:

as well as total air supremacy, given the lack of f-16 operations in Ukraine it seems plausible they are allocated almost the entire sustained NATO airforce generation.

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Officially Israel is not getting any US air support let alone NATO. And if it would happen, it would be highly controversial both for foreign and domestic policy. It does not seem plausible at all that Israel is allocated anything except their own airforce generation, there is no credible evidence or motive for US, let alone all NATO, to provide any of their own.

Minm said:

Israel won't collapse. Industrial nations are very resilient. North Korea and Iran have faced far worse from sanctions and they're doing ok. And with US support, Israel will keep going for as long as that support lasts.

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Even in NK's case where US successfully lobbied international reach sanctions, it's not like people there are being actively attritioned by it. Let alone Iran, which is essentially unaffected economically.

The problem for US is that they can't pour in too much support. Stockpiles and wealth are limited.

Proton said:

Israel has very strong demographics, that plus near endless military and financial supports from abroad means it can keep up high intensity warfare forever.

We aren't talking about a dying country like Ukraine; facing irreversible demographic and economic collapse.
It's the exact opposite; a state built from the ground up for the sole purpose of waging war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed Ukraine had 10x the population of Israel - while this is still 3x more, Israel now has more births; dictating the demographic future. Israel aims to keep it's population growing at a rapid pace, both requiring and enabling ever more war for lebensraum.

Click to expand...

The strong demographic growth came from the high birthrate of the ultra orthodox Jews. Guess what, they don’t work and they don’t serve in the military.