No country to help the civilians of Gaza and stop Israel for the indiscriminate bombing of innocent people?
It is far beyond ordinary politics. A general war in the Middle East will bring about a lethal shock to the global economy and inevitably start a global conflict by the sheer dynamic of economic collapse that will affect everyone. We're in the middle of a proxy war with Russia but there is no buffer for crash of western markets and the trade exchange with Asia. Nobody needs this mess which is precisely why Hamas and Iran started it.
Biden administration must prevent that scenario because it is America's mess unless Washington fails spectacularly China will not step in. China plays the long game and it is not in their interest to empower Republicans. It benefits China that Biden's administration is seen as competent in terms of security. At the same time a demonstration of soft power is very much in China's interest but that will be impossible with an uncontrolled escalation. Therefore I view China as a stabilising factor in the events but only indirectly so, while the US is being tested directly and openly.
Also: Destruction of Hamas is in Iran's interest.
Hamas and Iran are not on the same side. Hamas is a Sunni Islamist organisation derived from Muslim Brotherhood ranks over which Shia Iran has no direct control. Loss of Hamas will therefore weaken all Sunni actors who use them as venue for indirect pressure on Israel. Also regardless of the outcome Israel will be weakened and Hezbollah will be the only non-state actor capable of engaging IDF and it is entirely controlled from Teheran. Everyone else will either have to engage directly or via poorly organised ad-hoc militant groups. That's clear advantage to Iran.
What is also in Iran's interest is general unrest in Palestine and end to stability between Israel and Arab neighbours in consequence of IDF's operation in Gaza and - inevitably, since they're part of the same nation - in the West Bank. Saudi Arabia already backed out of normalisation with Israel and the ground operation in Gaza hasn't started yet. US is trying to salvage the deal but it likely won't happen as soon as fighting on the ground begins.
Therefore by pushing Hamas into direct confrontation in Gaza Iran loses nothing and wins everything. It gains the aggravation of public opinion and at the same time whatever outrage is directed at attacks against Israeli civilians is not Iran's responsibility. Most likely what Iran did was help Hamas in countering IDF's defensive systems. The rampage and kidnapping of hostages was (officially) not part of the plan and is on Hamas.
I remain skeptical on Hezbollah entering the fight because it would increase instability in the region too much. I think they will make threat displays and attempt to pin as many IDF resources as possible, to make operation in Gaza as difficult and costly as possible. But it is simply illogical to enter a war before your enemy has exhausted itself. It is also illogical to attempt an offensive operation when you're at an advantage defending. Hezbollah will therefore try to do everything to draw Israel into a war on two fronts - either simultaneously or in succession.
Also - this is from 7th:
Allegedly the Israeli government sent almost all 26 active battalions of IDF into the West Bank to protect the increasingly aggravated behaviour from the settlers. The current 37th government is very heavily dependent on Shas which is the radical haredi, pro-settler, religious Zionist party with 8+ % in recent elections. The Haredi are a state within state and they have the negative effect of both being the most aggressive group in Israeli society and at the same time being exempt from military service. They therefore cause trouble but don't bear the consequences. This is why they are such a drain on IDF and Likud politically. They are completely fanatical ideologically and therefore it is in their interest to accelerate conflict. They can't lose, no matter what happens.
This would explain why the defense perimeter was so easy to penetrate - with low manning there is simply not enough hands to maintain necessary routines.
Israel has ~170k active soldiers and ~460k primary reserves of which 300k have already been mobilised.
Hamas is estimated to have up to 60k fighters of which 10k are trained and experienced e.g. veterans from Syria. Gaza Strip is a densely built up area with nominal population of 2,4 million. While it is impossible to tell how many civilians will remain there, it should give some indication to what type of battle is going to take place there. Assuming the standard calculus of forces 8-10:1 vs defense in urban terrain IDF would have to commit all of its forces for an all-out offensive.
If Hezbollah projects a credible threat and Hamas resists IDF will have to enact general mobilisation.
IDF ground force is primarily a conscript force with basic training which has not seen any major combat operations since 2006 war in Lebanon where Hezbollah technically won. The entire experience of IDF recruits is in providing security in a prepared environment. It's almost two decades since IDF has had constant presence in Gaza and it is completely unprepared for a general battle as far as infantry operations are concerned.
At the same time air support and artillery are limited to the extent that civilians remain in Gaza which is an unknown factor.
Allegedly Iran was helping with this operation since August. That's a lot of time to prepare defenses and draw lessons. The raid on Saturday was too brazen and too blatant so I assume they are prepared for drowning IDF in blood. We'll see if IDF prepared for not repeating errors from 2006.
I suppose I won't sleep much tonight.
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And lastly, something I wasn't aware of until someone brought it up - the GDP growth of Israel, here compared to Poland. GDP in millions, annual growth, population and GDP per capita.
Apparently it's at $55k per capita (nominal)! That's a lot of money compared to Palestinian territories that survive in extreme poverty. Even a little bit of that wealth could greatly improve the living conditions of Palestinians.
It also puts the "festival for peace" in a completely different light: not innocent civilians murdered by fanatics but selfish rich people identified by their instagram profiles spending money on a party "for peace" right next to a concentration camp that is always in need of resources. As ruthless as it may sound what happened to them is poetic justice.
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