Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
No country to help the civilians of Gaza and stop Israel for the indiscriminate bombing of innocent people?

It is far beyond ordinary politics. A general war in the Middle East will bring about a lethal shock to the global economy and inevitably start a global conflict by the sheer dynamic of economic collapse that will affect everyone. We're in the middle of a proxy war with Russia but there is no buffer for crash of western markets and the trade exchange with Asia. Nobody needs this mess which is precisely why Hamas and Iran started it.

Biden administration must prevent that scenario because it is America's mess unless Washington fails spectacularly China will not step in. China plays the long game and it is not in their interest to empower Republicans. It benefits China that Biden's administration is seen as competent in terms of security. At the same time a demonstration of soft power is very much in China's interest but that will be impossible with an uncontrolled escalation. Therefore I view China as a stabilising factor in the events but only indirectly so, while the US is being tested directly and openly.

Also: Destruction of Hamas is in Iran's interest.

Hamas and Iran are not on the same side. Hamas is a Sunni Islamist organisation derived from Muslim Brotherhood ranks over which Shia Iran has no direct control. Loss of Hamas will therefore weaken all Sunni actors who use them as venue for indirect pressure on Israel. Also regardless of the outcome Israel will be weakened and Hezbollah will be the only non-state actor capable of engaging IDF and it is entirely controlled from Teheran. Everyone else will either have to engage directly or via poorly organised ad-hoc militant groups. That's clear advantage to Iran.

What is also in Iran's interest is general unrest in Palestine and end to stability between Israel and Arab neighbours in consequence of IDF's operation in Gaza and - inevitably, since they're part of the same nation - in the West Bank. Saudi Arabia already backed out of normalisation with Israel and the ground operation in Gaza hasn't started yet. US is trying to salvage the deal but it likely won't happen as soon as fighting on the ground begins.

Therefore by pushing Hamas into direct confrontation in Gaza Iran loses nothing and wins everything. It gains the aggravation of public opinion and at the same time whatever outrage is directed at attacks against Israeli civilians is not Iran's responsibility. Most likely what Iran did was help Hamas in countering IDF's defensive systems. The rampage and kidnapping of hostages was (officially) not part of the plan and is on Hamas.

I remain skeptical on Hezbollah entering the fight because it would increase instability in the region too much. I think they will make threat displays and attempt to pin as many IDF resources as possible, to make operation in Gaza as difficult and costly as possible. But it is simply illogical to enter a war before your enemy has exhausted itself. It is also illogical to attempt an offensive operation when you're at an advantage defending. Hezbollah will therefore try to do everything to draw Israel into a war on two fronts - either simultaneously or in succession.

Also - this is from 7th:


Allegedly the Israeli government sent almost all 26 active battalions of IDF into the West Bank to protect the increasingly aggravated behaviour from the settlers. The current 37th government is very heavily dependent on Shas which is the radical haredi, pro-settler, religious Zionist party with 8+ % in recent elections. The Haredi are a state within state and they have the negative effect of both being the most aggressive group in Israeli society and at the same time being exempt from military service. They therefore cause trouble but don't bear the consequences. This is why they are such a drain on IDF and Likud politically. They are completely fanatical ideologically and therefore it is in their interest to accelerate conflict. They can't lose, no matter what happens.

This would explain why the defense perimeter was so easy to penetrate - with low manning there is simply not enough hands to maintain necessary routines.

Israel has ~170k active soldiers and ~460k primary reserves of which 300k have already been mobilised.

Hamas is estimated to have up to 60k fighters of which 10k are trained and experienced e.g. veterans from Syria. Gaza Strip is a densely built up area with nominal population of 2,4 million. While it is impossible to tell how many civilians will remain there, it should give some indication to what type of battle is going to take place there. Assuming the standard calculus of forces 8-10:1 vs defense in urban terrain IDF would have to commit all of its forces for an all-out offensive.

If Hezbollah projects a credible threat and Hamas resists IDF will have to enact general mobilisation.

IDF ground force is primarily a conscript force with basic training which has not seen any major combat operations since 2006 war in Lebanon where Hezbollah technically won. The entire experience of IDF recruits is in providing security in a prepared environment. It's almost two decades since IDF has had constant presence in Gaza and it is completely unprepared for a general battle as far as infantry operations are concerned.

At the same time air support and artillery are limited to the extent that civilians remain in Gaza which is an unknown factor.

Allegedly Iran was helping with this operation since August. That's a lot of time to prepare defenses and draw lessons. The raid on Saturday was too brazen and too blatant so I assume they are prepared for drowning IDF in blood. We'll see if IDF prepared for not repeating errors from 2006.

I suppose I won't sleep much tonight.

----

And lastly, something I wasn't aware of until someone brought it up - the GDP growth of Israel, here compared to Poland. GDP in millions, annual growth, population and GDP per capita.
ISRAEL econ.jpg
Apparently it's at $55k per capita (nominal)! That's a lot of money compared to Palestinian territories that survive in extreme poverty. Even a little bit of that wealth could greatly improve the living conditions of Palestinians.

It also puts the "festival for peace" in a completely different light: not innocent civilians murdered by fanatics but selfish rich people identified by their instagram profiles spending money on a party "for peace" right next to a concentration camp that is always in need of resources. As ruthless as it may sound what happened to them is poetic justice.
 
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FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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REPORT: Biden Admin Advises Senators To Prepare ‘Constituents’ For ‘Long War’ In Israel And Gaza​


The Biden administration informed U.S. senators they ought to prepare their own “constituents for a long war in Israel & the Gaza Strip,” a senior congressional journalist for Punchbowl News reported Monday morning.

The briefing indicated “U.S. support — both tangible & political — will be necessary in the coming weeks” and that the administration is seeking “to establish domestic political expectations,” Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio tweeted. The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern and central Israel on Saturday that has resulted in over 1,000 dead and thousands injured on both sides, including over 900 killed in Israel. The Iran-backed organization controls the Gaza Strip.

The senators were informed “an imminent funding package isn’t necessary” currently but they wanted “new security assistance for Israel” to be included in “Ukraine-focused supplemental,” according to Desiderio. The officials reportedly mentioned they anticipate Israel will require “precision-guided missiles as well as replenishments for the Iron Dome missile defense system.”

Democratic Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed and other senators on the call reportedly said Republican Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville and others should stop their blocking of U.S. military nominees over the military’s abortion-related travel fund, and sought progress filling other vacancies in the American government, according to Desiderio’s thread.

Israel’s Security Cabinet formally declared war on Hamas on Saturday night.
The officials reportedly mentioned they anticipate Israel will require “precision-guided missiles as well as replenishments for the Iron Dome missile defense system.”

Looks even more clear that the objective is occupation or the annexation of Gaza. Off topic but every time they try to rock the boat with China. There is always a distraction around the corner that depletes their resources.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
All I can say is that like America, Israel is going to pay a heavy price for having an idiot clown as it’s leader.

I am strictly neutral on this subject, and even I am facepalming at the arrogant stupidity of Netanyahu.

If Hezbollah enters the war, it would be because Netanyahu made it impossible for them not to.

It should have been clear to anyone with half a brain that the sporadic intrusions and rocket fire from Lebanon was the result of rouge actor tails trying to wag the Hezbollah dog.

In the past, when the myth of Israel military invincibility was still intact, they could afford to throw their weight around and dare their opponents to step up and have a go. Now the Israeli military has been shamed and wounded and still bleeding, and Netanyahu looks like a blood-mad drunk threatening everyone around him and wanting to fight the world. All the while having the cheek to try to hide behind the skirts of American carriers on the way.

Had he played this cold, calculating, smart and patiently, he could have blockaded Gaza and sapped Hamas of strength all the while isolating Hamas diplomatically and building an international coalition to support Israel. In the meantime, the IDF would have had time to recover from the damage done to it, clear Israeli territory of Hamas fighters, give time to properly mobilise and equip the reserves. And only then go in to Gaza, weeks or months later, after Hamas has burned through most of its supplies keeping the civilian population of Gaza live under total blockades. Hell, he could have opened a humanitarian corridor, through Israel (so they can screen all leavers and make sure no one and nothing goes the other way into Gaza), to allow civilians to leave Gaza to make the fight easier for their own troops.

Instead we have this current clown show where he is rushing in like he is on Hamas’ side and looking to get as many Israelis killed as possible.

Indeed. Why are they desperate to play PUBG with HAMAs militants when they have the advantage in literally every other metric. Not a good move strategically. Unless the goal here is indirection — make HAMAS think that a lot of ground troops are committed but pushing in other directions.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Gaza strip is really a bad location. it is surrounded with israel territory. The sea is blockade by US and Israel navy.

Unlike Ukraine where it is connected to Poland which aid and military hardware can be transported easily.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Apologies for the rant but history needs to be set straight:



Why would Jews ever need to learn from amateurs???

Jewish supremacism existed two millenia before the peoples of Europe ever considered referring to themselves as "white" which only came during the late colonial period.

Furthermore "white" is primarily an English invention because Mediterranean cultures have long history of ethnic diversity to the point where English racists would consider them non-white. Med colonists would rather emphasize distinctions of religion or class, rather than "race". On the other hand Dutch, English or German colonists many of whom were commoners rather than nobility as in the case of e.g. Spain and often belonged to a sectarian Protestant church rather than the Roman Catholic church would underscore racial divisions.

I would even hypothesize that the racist colonial policies of Protestant nations - note that there is no ideological racism in Spanish colonies - were caused by Protestants rejecting Catholic doctrine and confusing the purpose of Old Testament in the Bible. Protestants are too often drawn to the notion of being the "chosen people" through their subjective interpretation of the scripture while Catholics follow the traditional commandment of maintaining the one universal church for all humanity, with just the disagreement whether the other churches should be subjugates (legitimism) or embraced (ecumenism). In other words Protestants are racist because they are more "Jewish" than "Christian" due to their misinterpretation of the scripture.

Hitler was not a German i.e. völkisch ethno-chauvinist. He drew his inspirations from racist and eugenicist policies of British Empire and United States. The racist policies were not German. They were radical cultural imports from foreign cultures much like current American culture wars. Polish people under Prussian occupation (1772-1918) had suffered from German ethnic and cultural chauvinism later emphasized under Bismarck's Kulturkampf. I had family in East Prussia and Posen provinces and they managed to do just fine. What Hitler brought was completely unhinged.

But I digress.

Judaism is supremacist at its core.

But not just that. At its core it also has an architecture of imperial servility because Judaism has been created as a political tool of Judean elites in exile who served as loyal collaborators of Achaemenid empire in the satrapy of Yehud Medinata re-created from former Judean and Israeli kingdoms fallen to the Neo-Assyrian and Neo-Babylonian empires.

I listened to several lectures from Yonatan Adler on recent archeological findings and in general all the findings from Israel in the last 3-4 decades essentially undermine the entirety of Jewish mythology. But it won't be publicly said in America or Israel which need that myth.

Once you understand that historical reality all the stories of Old Testament become very obvious as a record of a totalitarian culture trying to impose itself over a population through violence.

Forget the literal violent conquest of Canaan in the Tanakh. Think about Maccabean revolt during the times of Seleucid empire, after Greek conquest of Persia, or their revolt against Rome.

In Jewish history there is always a violent militant supermacist group starting a conflict despite the population trying to fit into the broader culture of society. Even Zionism was created by Herzl as reaction to Haskala, the Jewish Enlightenment, which resulted in Jews becoming more like the goyim. They indirectly wanted to start a war for land to remind Jews who they were at heart.

Invaders and/or oppressors.

And what is really "Zionism"? It's Judaism without god. Why? Because presence of god in the doctrine requires a messiah to facilitate the re-emergence of the Jewish people and the messiah is a religious matter that Zionist ideologues had no influence over. It is a modern religion for Jews who don't want to obey all the weird rules but do want to be "chosen".

This is also why there was such backlash against Labour Zionism - the dominant ideology at the inception of state of Israel - from the orthodox and ultra-orthodox Jews as well as Zionists/Revisionists which form the religious parties and Likud respectively. Labour Zionism was too close to the ideals of the Haskala and a more liberal egalitarian society which the "actual Jews" reject.

Everything that Israel does is quintessential Judaism because Judaism is seeking supremacism from a position of subordination.

Judaism is a religion of historical lies concocted for the sole purpose of maintaining political control over a population in the absence of civic authority. Because civic authority belonged to the Persians. This is why in Jewish myth kings are always a problem and Jews only do well when they listen to the priests.

And even the fact that Israel is nominally a secular state stems directly from the original Saducean (upper-class) branch of Judaism which focused on ritual and hierarchy, unlike the spiritual Phariseans (middle-class) Judaism. Today Judaism is only Phariseic but the Israeli "secular" Jewish state functions as Saducee's. The only thing missing to fulfill the delusion is the temple.

Now the only reason why now everyone is taught the mythology of poor Jews and antisemitism is beacuse after WW2 Jews again play the role of imperial tools this time for the United States.

This is also why Jews are allowed to lie that Catholicism led to antisemitism and to holocaust - because US is a Protestant regime so it uses Jews to attack its religious rival even though holocaust comes directly from Protestant teachings.

Just think about the fact that according to the American imperial culture 18yo (born in 2005!) Germans regardless of ethnicity are supposed to feel guilt before 18yo Israelis who are guards at concentration camps!!!

And these same concentration camp guards come to my country point at "Polish death camps" and insult us by calling us anti-semites and demanding that we acknowledge our role in the genocide. And again it is the Americans who expect us to tolerate it and even agree.

This has nothing to do with remembering history. It's all about power.

That's not Zionism. Not "white supremacism". Not "colonialism". That's Judaism seeking its natural place - relative supremacism in service of imperial power.

Now don't read this entire rant the wrong way. This is not about blaming or excusing anyone. This is about explaining the why things happen the way they do.

My argument here is simple: we are slaves to our behavioural programming especially if we don't understand it - as most Jews don't, because Judaism perpetuates the lies necessary for control.
  • Everything that is wrong with Jewish culture or Israel stems from Judaism and won't be resolved until Judaism is treated the same way other supremacist ideologies.
  • Jews historically never act in their own interest politically because to do that they would need to have a cultural concept of a king and Judaism expressly forbids that.
Therefore Little Satan always needs a Big Satan. And while Little Satan may play vile mischief on its own it is ultimately always dependent on Big Satan to do anything. I despise the ayatollahs but they have this one right. The Persians know their creation.

Modern Israel was created by Britain to secure the Suez. It is now maintained by US as a rabid chain dog to discipline the oil kingdoms.

After all when the Jews came to Poland in Middle Ages, they often worked for the nobility which put the peasantry into serfdom.

And with historical confusion out of the way let's focus on the events. Again, apologies for the digression.

EOT.



This is just EU trying to accommodate the pressures from Washington. The Republicans can undermine Biden and conservative Jews have always wanted to drag the rest of Jews on their side, which would cost Democrats in FPTP. EU must do what it can to not let Republicans score any points.

The entire world is a circus for the right-wing imbeciles in America. Truly, a dystopia.
You are saying Jewish are Koreans of Middle East?
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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White House says Iran ‘complicit’ in Hamas attack​

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby has accused Iran of being “complicit” in Hamas’s attack on
Israel, but he said Washington does not have evidence linking Tehran to the assault.

“Iran has long supported Hamas and other terrorist networks throughout the region with resources, capabilities training,” John Kirby told MSNBC.

“And so in that regard, clearly Iran is complicit here. But in terms of specific evidence on this – these sorts of attacks – no, we don’t have anything,” he said.

The Reuters news agency reported later on Monday, citing a defence official, that a US aircraft carrier strike group is set to arrive in eastern Mediterranean waters “very soon” in a show of support for Israel.
“And so in that regard, clearly Iran is complicit here. But in terms of specific evidence on this – these sorts of attacks – no, we don’t have anything,” he said.

US needs to watch itself before falling down a slippery slope.
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
— // Third day of the war, October 9th, status update and major events:

– Israeli death toll reached 900

– Dozens of Hamas fighters still involved in clashes with Israeli troops just outside Gaza, especially in the settlements of Be'eri, Kisufim and Zikim. Hamas claims to sucessfully rotate its troops and maintain combat capability.

– IDF declares a blockade of the Gaza strip, and prevents the flow of water, food and electricity to it.

– Continuous relentless IAF bombing of the Gaza strip since morning, causing hundreds of civilian casualties

– Approximately 15 missiles were fired from South Lebanon into Israel by Palestinian factions.

– A group of PIJ members blew up the border fence and entered Israel from South Lebanon, killing two IDF soldiers and injuring 5 others. Two members of the PIJ were killed and the rest fled back to Lebanon.

– IAF airstrikes in South Lebanon, leading to the deaths of 3 Hezbollah fighters and the destruction of an observation post.

– Al-Qassam announces it will execute an Israeli hostage for every attack on civilians in Gaza without pre-warning, and that they will broadcast it.

– After announcing the death of 3 of its fighters, Hezbollah targeted with guided missiles the 'Branit' military command center of the IDF Galilee division, and the Avivim barracks, belonging to the IDF's Western Brigade.

@Middle_East_Spectator
 
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