I think the Israelis must be preparing an invasion or they are truly beyond desperate.
The pager attack was meant to cause damage. The radio and other attacks are intended to cause disruption as Hezbollah starts to doubt all their electronic devices and seeks replacements en mass. That creates an opening for Israel where for a brief period, Hezbollah C&C are significantly degraded.
But this is a fleeting and rapidly closing window, as Iran’s friends abroad could ship in all the replacements they could want within days to weeks, and a short trip from Iran to Lebanon later and Hezbollah C&C are back up and running.
If Israel launches its invasion in the coming days, then these attacks will go down as an effective novel preparation attack. If they don’t invade, then they would have wasted an extremely valuable trump card for very little real gains.
But I think this attack has crossed a real red line that cannot be rolled back now, as the attacks have shown the world how dangerous and damaging supply chain compromises can be.
It’s difficult to map out the full implications and ramifications, but I think it’s a safe bet that electronics will get more expensive as everyone ramps up security to prevent such tempering.
At first glance, I think this will be even more bad news for the likes of Apple that loves to black box things and prevent user access. I can easily see a massive increase in demand for detachable batteries for certain comms gear where previously integrated was the norm. That way you can buy your comms gear and batteries separately and can easily test the batteries for surprises before use.
This might also be massively bad news for European, American and even SEA manufacturers as they might be seen as more prone to being comprised compared to Chinese ones.
China will also need to be extra vigilant since I bet the Anglo intelligence agencies will seek to comprise Chinese make gear to smear China if they seem their own market shares start to evaporate because of this.
Also, this might be a really big blow for EVs. Imagine how much explosive Mossad can pack in their batteries.