Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

tankphobia said:

Imo Chinese foreign policy has changed drastically in modern times, if this happened 40 years ago I would not be surprised if China started mass shipping military equipment to Iran, Lebanon and Palestine on day 1 of hostilities.

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I find that very unbelievable. At most China would probably make a statement and do nothing further. 40-50 year ago China and the US relations were improving with Nixon visit in 1972 and Deng visit in 1979 with high level exchanges continuing until 1989. Chinese leaders are not going to be jeopardizing decades of normalization with the US over an issue 3800 miles away from China.

tankphobia said:

Instead they just call for restraint, the new generation of Chinese leadership is a far cry from earlier leaders who are more bold and less predictable. Stability is focused above all else.

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Because there are geopolitical factors and realities China needs to consider. Unless you want China to do what the US is doing and everyone can see how well that is going for the US.

obj 705A said:

regarding Palestine, the issue here is that the only route to smugle weapons to Gaza is through Egypt which was closed several years ago by the Egyptians ever since Sisi came to power. so even if China wanted to send weapons to Gaza, they actually can't do it. furthermore all that Hamas needs are ATGMs & more modern drones like the Shahed. so Iranian weaponry would have been enough had Egypt not acted as a bodyguard for Israel by closing the border.

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Gaza has tunnels going to Egypt, into Israel, and into West Bank. Sisi claimed to have destroyed it's side of tunnels but I highly doubt it. Israel itself blames Egypt for keeping the tunnels alive. And the border with Egypt wasn't totally closed. Restricted is the more appropriate word.

IDF isn't that disciplined either; they've had soldiers implicated in selling and shipping weapons directly to Palestinians for a quick buck. IDF also has an Arab regiment of ethnic Palestinian stock who are exempt from conscription but volunteered to join IDF... what could go wrong there?

FriedButter said:

I find that very unbelievable. At most China would probably make a statement and do nothing further. 40-50 year ago China and the US relations were improving with Nixon visit in 1972 and Deng visit in 1979 with high level exchanges continuing until 1989. Chinese leaders are not going to be jeopardizing decades of normalization with the US over an issue 3800 miles away from China.

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Yeah, China was arming and training Palestine militants in the 50/60s when the country was far less developed, it was active in the global struggle for communism and gladly sent men and weapons all over the globe. Since Deng came to power all of that gung ho attitude went away and economic development trumps ideology. This is evident in not just Palestine.

FriedButter said:

Because there are geopolitical factors and realities China needs to consider. Unless you want China to do what the US is doing and everyone can see how well that is going for the US.

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Economy over ideology. All things considered things are actually going pretty swell for the US, 80 years as the pre-eminent world power is a pretty good stint, even the sun set on the British empire so you might as well make a mark while you're the one in charge.

obj 705A said:

Iran already has all the missiles they need, what they lack is a proper airforce and an airdefence. Iran could buy these from Russia (especially the aircrafts) but for whatever reason they are not doing so, possibly due to economic reasons on Iran's side. the Russian MIC is already under sanctions so it's not like Russia is not selling weapons to Iran due to fear of sanctions.

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Iran have one of the best air defenses in the Middle East. They have Russian Rezonans-NE VHF radars. And they have Russian and their own air defense systems. Try checking out the specs of the Bavar-373 and Khordad-15 for example. Those are their equivalents of S-350 and S-400 system. They also have their equivalent of the Buk, the Raad SAM, and operate the Russian Tor SAM. The only thing they lack is ABM defense.

But yes their airforce is utterly obsolete.

Jordan telling Iran to stand down. Russia saying stand down. US saying stand down. Looks like everybody is looking out for Iran’s best interest to not commit suicide.

Petrolicious88 said:

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Jordan telling Iran to stand down. Russia saying stand down. US saying stand down. Looks like everybody is looking out for Iran’s best interest to not commit suicide.

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The risk of a retaliatory strike now would potentially come at an extremely high cost if it meant war with the US/Israel. In fact, there is already a Iran-led containment around this:
Iran says it will not take ‘hasty action’ against Israel for killing of Hamas political leader

Contrary to what it had initially said, Iran said today that, after all, it “will not take any hasty action” and that it “will take its time to take revenge on Israel” for the elimination of Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh.

This is the price one pays for not having a military force on standby, and on top of that, Iran is completely discredited, with military officials saying they would take revenge when their actions do not show this and it is a slap in the face to the credibility of official statements – military and civilian – from Iran.

gelgoog said:

Iran have one of the best air defenses in the Middle East. They have Russian Rezonans-NE VHF radars. And they have Russian and their own air defense systems. Try checking out the specs of the Bavar-373 and Khordad-15 for example. Those are their equivalents of S-350 and S-400 system. They also have their equivalent of the Buk, the Raad SAM, and operate the Russian Tor SAM. The only thing they lack is ABM defense.

But yes their airforce is utterly obsolete.

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Didnt seem to work out as IDF hit their air defense site near nuclear site after Iranian TikTok strike.

Now regarding the general discussion here:
There isnt any nation state on Earth that can fend off symmetric warfare against US let alone US+Israel bar China which in itself wouldn't be a walk in the park either, otherwise there would be no rebel province right now. And China knows it and its bidding its time and its confident in its rate of progress. Thats why there are many bait attempts to incite China into a conflict, theyre playing it right thats why US is desperate to pivot to Asia pacific but keeps getting caught up in other conflicts.

It will be smart of Ira to avoid wider war in the conflict. It will be playing right into Netanyahu's hand by getting US into conflict with Iran, they know it and theyre baiting hard. Why Iran gets flak is because of big gung ho statements coming out of them and then they cant back those up. Not wise to talk big if you dont carry a big stick.

Everyone thinks knee jerk reactions are great, because they make for great tweets, but that's not how it works in real life.

Israel gets unconditional US support because its nurtured that influence over decades of hard work, economic value creation and putting competent enough people in right places at right times in media, economy and politics to serve their interests and they've played a long and smart game and mostly done it below the radar of public. Theyre just playing the game more smartly. India us attempting to the same but theyre simply not that competent in this meta game as of now but may or may not eventually get there.

Update on the talks.

Egyptian official says US offering ‘promises, not guarantees’ on ceasefire​

The Associated Press is reporting that Egypt is sceptical about the prospects of a ceasefire proposal, with little clarity over the status of Israeli forces in the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor.

Blinken said on Tuesday that the proposal is “very clear on the schedule and location” of Israeli withdrawals, the AP reported, quoting an unnamed Egyptian official with knowledge of the negotiations, appeared to cast doubt on that claim, saying that Israel has only offered vague promises in those areas.

The Egyptian official added that the US-backed “bridging proposal” includes the release of the most vulnerable Hamas-held captives, with negotiations on other key issues to take place during a six-week “pause” in the fighting.

“The Americans are offering promises, not guarantees,” the official was quoted as saying. “Hamas won’t accept this, because it virtually means Hamas will release the civilian hostages in return for a six-week pause of fighting with no guarantees for a negotiated permanent ceasefire.”

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“The Americans are offering promises, not guarantees,” the official was quoted as saying. “Hamas won’t accept this, because it virtually means Hamas will release the civilian hostages in return for a six-week pause of fighting with no guarantees for a negotiated permanent ceasefire.”

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phrozenflame said:

Didnt seem to work out as IDF hit their air defense site near nuclear site after Iranian TikTok strike.

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It was proven earlier that they claimed a satellite shadow was a hit. Israel had no retaliation until they bided their time for Haniyeh. So it's interesting that some people here wish to gas them to infinity for waiting half a year while if Iran, who is during this time receiving new weapons shipments, intends to wait a few months before inciting casualties on Israel in some way, apparently it means Israel has totally defeated Iran's credibility.

Perhaps at least trying to apply the same standards will provide a more realistic analysis of the situation? Israel survived the blow towards its credibility for not retaliating in months, Iran will as well.

Nearly a year into the war, Israel has still taken massive casualties, not defeated defenders in Gaza, suffered a ton of internal refugees and a large economic drop. While Iran has suffered what? Hence the desparation in drawing US into the conflict, to turn the current situation around.

Two ships attacked by Yemen. One is called SW North Wind I. Other is ..?.. owned by Delta Tankers.

PIJ: Yassin-105 strikes and mortars. The second video may be the finest footage of a tactical retreat during a battle: resistance fighter gets caught in IDF crosshairs, loses weapons, retreats, returns with a new weapon straight into the crosshairs and finishes the job.

AQB: RPG strikes on tanks and personnel + mortars

IDF s̶p̶o̶t̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ sitting ducks face-to-face with AQB.