Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
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These people are really dumb. If they do massively attack Iran they will only speed up its long distance missile and nuclear weapons program. The fact is North Korea and Iran have deep ties between their MIC. So you can bet if necessary any weapon which North Korea has Iran could buy from them as well.

Again what’s the point of having nukes if you can’t ever use it.

India and Pakistan first showed the world that you can still have a conventional war even if both sides have nukes.

Iran does not have the capability to defeat Israel + U.S. It’s not even in the same league in term of complete overmatch.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
You brought up a lot of strawman to fit your narrative .. this is not about 'missing any points'... this is about reality. And yes in the real world, emotions and anger even at the highest levels is very present and very real.

The fact that it happened on the inauguration of it's leader does plays a role BUT it's impact is insignificant compared to the level of destruction or damages of the strike itself or in this case luckily the lack thereof.

The original talking point was about escalation. I don’t know why you keep trying to downplay the fact that it happened during the presidential inauguration as if it wasn’t a serious escalation. My point being that it doesn't matter if an aircraft entered or not because it already is a serious escalation.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Again what’s the point of having nukes if you can’t ever use it.

India and Pakistan first showed the world that you can still have a conventional war even if both sides have nukes.

Iran does not have the capability to defeat Israel + U.S. It’s not even in the same league in term of complete overmatch.
A limited conventional war. In fact, India only expanded its nuclear program after the 1962 hostilities against China. That is exactly what a nuclear weapon is for, to become a deterrent against a superior enemy, and to limit escalation, and that is what Iran needs to be directed against Israel and the US, which constantly threatens Iran with invasion.

Your question seems to imply that nuclear weapons are completely useless, when in reality, they bring national security to the country when it is confronted with existential threats, which would be the same case with Israel's nuclear weapons. If nuclear weapons are so useless that they cannot be used, you can ask Israel to give up those nuclear weapons, since they will never be able to use them. What is the point of Israel keeping its nuclear weapons? Israel could get rid of nuclear weapons by signing the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone agreement, which Iran has been advocating for the creation of for decades, a proposal that has so far not been accepted in international negotiations, at least in part due to Israel's existing nuclear weapons arsenal.

The implications for Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon are enormous. At the very least, possessing nuclear weapons would allow Iran greater political flexibility in the Middle East. This would likely mean using groups it supports, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, even more aggressively to threaten and intimidate other countries in the region. It would also mean pushing harder to support pro-Iran militant groups in countries like Syria and Iraq, where Iran finds itself competing for influence. The idea is that Iran could be more brazen and aggressive with these non-nuclear threats because its nuclear weapon would scare other countries into not retaliating. This intimidation could also have implications for energy policy; Iran might feel it can push through demands in the Persian Gulf regarding disputed islands or natural gas fields, or demands regarding production quotas within OPEC.

Incidentally, this points to Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, as an example of how all of this could play out. Pakistan’s behavior after its public entry into the nuclear club in 1998 is instructive: it immediately increased support for Islamic militants, creating the Kargil crisis in 1999 and the standoff with India in 2000 and 2001. In a classic example of the stability-instability paradox, Pakistan’s confidence that nuclear weapons would deter escalation made limited conventional and terrorist attacks against India possible.
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
A limited conventional war. In fact, India only expanded its nuclear program after the 1962 hostilities against China. That is exactly what a nuclear weapon is for, to become a deterrent against a superior enemy, and to limit escalation, and that is what Iran needs to be directed against Israel and the US, which constantly threatens Iran with invasion.

Your question seems to imply that nuclear weapons are completely useless, when in reality, they bring national security to the country when it is confronted with existential threats, which would be the same case with Israel's nuclear weapons. If nuclear weapons are so useless that they cannot be used, you can ask Israel to give up those nuclear weapons, since they will never be able to use them. What is the point of Israel keeping its nuclear weapons? Israel could get rid of nuclear weapons by signing the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone agreement, which Iran has been advocating for the creation of for decades, a proposal that has so far not been accepted in international negotiations, at least in part due to Israel's existing nuclear weapons arsenal.

The implications for Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon are enormous. At the very least, possessing nuclear weapons would allow Iran greater political flexibility in the Middle East. This would likely mean using groups it supports, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, even more aggressively to threaten and intimidate other countries in the region. It would also mean pushing harder to support pro-Iran militant groups in countries like Syria and Iraq, where Iran finds itself competing for influence. The idea is that Iran could be more brazen and aggressive with these non-nuclear threats because its nuclear weapon would scare other countries into not retaliating. This intimidation could also have implications for energy policy; Iran might feel it can push through demands in the Persian Gulf regarding disputed islands or natural gas fields, or demands regarding production quotas within OPEC.

Incidentally, this points to Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, as an example of how all of this could play out. Pakistan’s behavior after its public entry into the nuclear club in 1998 is instructive: it immediately increased support for Islamic militants, creating the Kargil crisis in 1999 and the standoff with India in 2000 and 2001. In a classic example of the stability-instability paradox, Pakistan’s confidence that nuclear weapons would deter escalation made limited conventional and terrorist attacks against India possible.
A weak nuclear arsenal does not necessarily translate to immunity from destructive war. Israel has likely at least primitive warheads/dirty bombs/or at the very least seen as a threshold state. Iran is also a threshold state.

Despite Israel being a threshold state, it has not prevented other countries from directly striking Israel, or even make plans/threats to wipe it out as a national identity. Hamas and Hezbollah are clearly fully undeterred.

And now Iran has also experienced having its soil directly bombed despite being another threshold state.

If Israel can accept being turned to Palestine and Iran can accept having most of its leadership killed without resorting to nukes, then the threshold for WMD use among middle Eastern states are so high that they're effectively nonexistent.

I would theorize that weak nuclear powers are not able to use their nukes credibly due to the fear of punishment from the major powers. Game theory says that if a small power nukes a neighbor, they would have broken the nuclear taboo and now become much more willing to use nukes, build more nukes, making them a rabid dog that can later on threaten even the great nuclear powers.

So then, the logical thing for the great powers to do would be to nuke the small power, to re-establish the nuclear taboo, while the great powers still have an advantage in missile defenses/delivery that lets them stop the rogue state.

Imho this is why small powers have near infinite WMD threshold levels.
 

eduds6

New Member
Registered Member
Again what’s the point of having nukes if you can’t ever use it.

India and Pakistan first showed the world that you can still have a conventional war even if both sides have nukes.

Iran does not have the capability to defeat Israel + U.S. It’s not even in the same league in term of complete overmatch.

Everyone would have said the same about the taliban against the coalition NATO forces and they won a defensive war against the American invasion. I would not doubt though that 25%, of Israel at a minimum would disappear and that Iran would win while devastated in its industrial and military or civil infrastructure
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
A weak nuclear arsenal does not necessarily translate to immunity from destructive war. Israel has likely at least primitive warheads/dirty bombs/or at the very least seen as a threshold state. Iran is also a threshold state.

Despite Israel being a threshold state, it has not prevented other countries from directly striking Israel, or even make plans/threats to wipe it out as a national identity. Hamas and Hezbollah are clearly fully undeterred.

And now Iran has also experienced having its soil directly bombed despite being another threshold state.

If Israel can accept being turned to Palestine and Iran can accept having most of its leadership killed without resorting to nukes, then the threshold for WMD use among middle Eastern states are so high that they're effectively nonexistent.

I would theorize that weak nuclear powers are not able to use their nukes credibly due to the fear of punishment from the major powers. Game theory says that if a small power nukes a neighbor, they would have broken the nuclear taboo and now become much more willing to use nukes, build more nukes, making them a rabid dog that can later on threaten even the great nuclear powers.

So then, the logical thing for the great powers to do would be to nuke the small power, to re-establish the nuclear taboo, while the great powers still have an advantage in missile defenses/delivery that lets them stop the rogue state.

Imho this is why small powers have near infinite WMD threshold levels.
History to date indicates that it does. There has been no large-scale invasion or attack against a nuclear-armed country.

I am not a supporter of the Nuclear Peace Theory, where advocates support the narrative that the world would have stability, order, balance and peace when there was nuclear proliferation. I will not detail the reasons to refute this argument, but it has been proven so far that nuclear-armed states are not invaded or attacked on a large scale and they can limit the military escalation of their enemy.
 
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