Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Michaelsinodef said:

There's no endgame plan.

Or whatever the Israeli government or military have, it's pretty clear that they simply do not have the ability to fully carry out those plans (unless it is what is happening right now, in which case, their plan sucks lol).

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The end game is what analysts first stated very early on in the invasion: Nakba 2.0 (ethnic cleansing).

Nakba 1.0 worked well in 1948, as nearly a million Palestinians fled/expelled. This time around, there is nowhere to expel the Palestinians.

Israel was hoping that Egypt would open the borders on humanitarian grounds, but Sisi did the exact opposite. Sisi received a lot of criticism but his point of view was absolutely spot on - that Gaza would cease to exist as a Palestinian territory if all the Gazans fled, as Israel intends.

Egypt banked on the idea that Israel would eventually cower to international pressure and stop the aggression. But Israel doesn't back down and continues to target Gazans. Hence, it is a slow genocide in the process. One thing we can be sure of now is that most of Gaza is inhospitable and deaths will continue to rise even if IDF slows it's momentum or backs up. In other words, make life so miserable that Gazans will flee voluntarily.

If Gaza falls, the Egyptian Sinai peninsula can be next and will be a lot easier since it is already demilitarized as per the 1973 peace treaty requirement.

eprash said:

Why IDF isn't using chemical measures like tear gas to clear the tunnels?

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They don’t know where to begin to find the tunnels. It is described that the tunnel network is complex as a spider web. You destroy one side but it doesn’t affect the whole network. Also the Gaza resistance groups have prepared defenses in the tunnels. The Israelis are too scared to send their troops to the tunnels to clear them. They would suffer even heavier casualties than they suffering now. All the bravado they had back in October,November and December is gone. They clearly have no idea how to get out of the morass they are.

Say what you will about Hamas but their leadership Sinwar and Deif are brilliant military strategist and tacticians. They closely studied the Israelis to the point of learning Hebrew. They prepared for this for this for years. They prepared defenses and tunnels to bog the Israelis down. Now Israel is stuck in the Gaza ulcer same way Napoleon was stuck with the Spanish ulcer. Slowly weakening the IOF. History will say the October 7 raid was a brilliant plan in goading Israel into a bloody quagmire which lead to the end to the Zionist regime.

Yemeni drone making its way into Israel. Interesting that its coming in from the West to strike Tel Aviv. That's quite some range for what looks to be a Samad drone (shape, prop, approx. size), assuming it flew through the Red Sea, and made a turn in the Med.

CaribouTruth said:

Yemeni drone making its way into Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1814232301800226842

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This is a major psychological blow to Israel. The fact none of their air defense detected means their air defense is under severe stress. And the message seems to be in a regional war Israel will be hit from all sides. Hezbollah is closer to Israel and likely has the same drones in large quantities can do so serious damage as much as their ballistic and cruise missiles. We are witnessing the end of Israel. This isn’t sustainable.

I believe that the drone entered through the Mediterranean Sea, probably after a large detour through Egypt, thus avoiding the main Israeli defenses.

The most interesting thing since October 7th is that the trust of the Israeli population in the IDF has progressively decreased.

JJD1803 said:

This is a major psychological blow to Israel. The fact none of their air defense detected means their air defense is under severe stress. And the message seems to be in a regional war Israel will be hit from all sides. Hezbollah is closer to Israel and likely has the same drones in large quantities can do so serious damage as much as their ballistic and cruise missiles. We are witnessing the end of Israel. This isn’t sustainable.

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Right now Israeli leadership seems to be biding time for Trump's inauguration and if US army fully commit to assist then their odds might change however Hezbollah seems to be pretty confident they can manage such scenario, Rumours of them having hypersonic anti ship ballistic missiles in their arsenal might be true.

CaribouTruth said:

Yemeni drone making its way into Israel. Interesting that its coming in from the West to strike Tel Aviv. That's quite some range for what looks to be a Samad drone (shape, prop, approx. size), assuming it flew through the Red Sea, and made a turn in the Med.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1814232301800226842

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Lmao, it looks like if they keep taking this roundabout route of ingress it could be a significant problem for Israel since that direction and the sea are poorly covered.

Also, if I didn't see that video, would've thought the audio was from Ukraine.

Side note, I think if war breaks out, this will be an interesting test of "suppression of enemy shore defences" ability with air supremacy, ie Israeli ability to use airpower to destroy all Hezbollah AShMs, with implications for the US strategy to base them on Westpac islands and launch guerrilla attacks on the PLA. Granted there are obvious terrain differences between Lebanon and those islands.

ismellcopium said:

Lmao, it looks like if they keep taking this roundabout route of ingress it could be a significant problem for Israel since that direction and the sea are poorly covered.

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Especially considering Hezbollah might have an even easier time sending drones through that heading.

Top UN court says Israel’s presence in occupied Palestinian territories is illegal and should end​

(Top UN Court, funny way to say ICJ)

The full advisory opinion if anyone wants to read. A lot of obvious stuff but hopefully this provides legitimacy and a vector for neutral parties to sever ties with Israel.

(229) It outright says Israel is in breach of Article 3 of CERD - aka Israel is an apartheid and racially segregated state.
It says occupations are illegal (duh), continued Israeli presence in the Occupied Territories is illegal, its not fulfilling its duties as an "occupying power", Israel is obligated to return occupied territories - or provide reparations, it calls other UN states to NOT RECOGNIZE territorial changes post '67. AND NOT RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE to Israel (279).

There's more stuff, and a lot of legalese but these are the main points. I'll try to find a good summary.
Now the question is how will traditional media try to spin this.

contd. from above.

a. State of Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful

b. State of Israel is under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as rapidly as possible

c. State of Israel is under an obligation to cease immediately all new settlement activities, and to evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory

d. State of Israel has the obligation to make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural or legal persons concerned in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

e. all States are under an obligation not to recognize as legal the situation arising from the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by the continued presence of the State of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

f. international organizations, including the United Nations, are under an obligation not to recognize as legal the situation arising from the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

g. United Nations, and especially the General Assembly, which requested this opinion, and the Security Council, should consider the precise modalities and further action required to bring to an end as rapidly as possible the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

(pg. 78-80)