Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

iBBz

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The US admits defeat by Yemen and calls them a "legitimate terrorist organization". Funny coming from the largest state sponsor of terrorism and warmonger on the planet that continues to bomb civilians and level cities all around the world.





Israel: Former MP invokes Hitler in call to expel Gaza's 'Islamo-Nazi' population​


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JJD1803

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Hezbollah released a 9 minute video showing live aerial reconnaissance of sensitive sites in northern Israel. That includes Haifa port, Iron Dome Sites, military bases and civilian industrial sites. And the drone didn’t trigger Iron Dome. At this point Israel should raise the white flag because Hezbollah keeps surprising us. They are far more capable than I ever imagined. War with Hezbollah would be the end of Israel. And if the US gets involved best believe Iran has some nasty surprises. Israel is finished they have totally lost deterrence. The north is lost.
 

FriedButter

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Israeli foreign minister says decision on all-out war against Hezbollah is near​


The Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, has said a decision on an all-out war with Hezbollah was coming soon, as Israel generals announced late on Tuesday that they had signed off planning for an offensive into Lebanon.

The escalating rhetoric came after the release of video footage from a Hezbollah surveillance drone’s overflight of the northern city of Haifa, which included images of sensitive sites and civilian neighbourhoods.

The broadcast of the footage was widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat against Haifa and comes as cross-border exchanges continue between the two sides. Last week northern Israel was hit by the heaviest Hezbollah barrage of the war after the Israeli killing of a senior Hezbollah commander.

After threats by the Hezbollah chief, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to damage Haifa’s ports that are operated by Chinese and Indian companies, Katz said in a post on X: “We are getting very close to the moment of deciding on changing the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon.”

“In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten,” he added.

Israel’s military later said “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field”.

Katz’s comments came as the IDF said on Tuesday that it had approved Lebanon battle plans. The IDF said the generals held an assessment, during which “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved” including “accelerating the readiness of the forces on the ground”.

The warnings came hours after Hezbollah published nine minutes of drone footage gathered from its surveillance overflight of locations in Israel, including the ports and airports of the key northern city of Haifa.

Distribution of the footage was flagged up by the Lebanese armed movement, including on its Telegram channel, advising viewers on several channels to “watch and analyse” what it said were “important scenes”.

Hezbollah has sent surveillance and attack drones into Israel in the past eight months as it exchanges fire with the Israeli military in parallel to the Gaza war.

The decision to broadcast the footage, which had images of residential and military sites in and around Haifa, including port facilities, appeared aimed as much at an Israeli audience as at a wider international one.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in November that it had been sending surveillance drones over Haifa.

The footage appeared to show parts of a factory belonging to Rafael defence – including Iron Dome batteries, rocket engine depots, David’s Slingshot facilities and radar.

The latest exchange of threats between the two sides came as the US and France work on a negotiated settlement to the hostilities along Lebanon’s southern boundary with Israel.

The footage appeared to underline the mounting difficulties Israel has encountered in dealing with the drone threat from Hezbollah, including several incidents when incoming drones were not detected by Israeli air defence systems, including a recent attack on a group of Israeli troops that killed one person.

Experts have assessed that Hezbollah is using a combination of tactics to avoid its drones being detected, including flying low and using multiple channels to avoid jamming technology.

Although about 150 drones have been intercepted, others have got through to their targets, and Israeli officials have disclosed they have begun spending millions of shekels to counter the drone threat.

Among reported planned improvements to Israel’s air defence systems are upgrades to the Iron Dome system to make it better equipped to deal with slower-flying uncrewed aircraft and the reintroduction of retired conventional anti-aircraft weapons, including the Vulcan system.

The disclosure of the footage appeared to be timed to coincide with the visit of the US envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon after meeting senior Israeli officials, including the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the day before.

In Beirut, Hochstein called for the “urgent” de-escalation of cross-border exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces raging since the start of the Gaza war.

“The conflict … between Israel and Hezbollah has gone on for long enough,” the presidential envoy said. “It’s in everyone’s interest to resolve it quickly and diplomatically – that is both achievable and it is urgent.”

Despite Hochstein’s visit to the region, there appeared to be little evidence of a breakthrough in efforts to reduce tension on the boundary between Israel and Lebanon. Reports in Israel have suggested Hochstein did not see any prospect for significant movement while the war in Gaza was continuing.

After several days of relative quiet between Israel and Hezbollah over the weekend, after last week’s barrages which included the heaviest of the war, there was a rise in hostilities again on Tuesday.

State media in Lebanon reported an Israeli drone strike on a car on the highway north of the coastal city of Tyre. It was not immediately clear who was in the car or how many people were killed or injured.

Last week Hezbollah launched hundreds of drones and rockets, including more than 200 on a single day, and the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in return.
Katz said in a post on X: “We are getting very close to the moment of deciding on changing the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon.”

“In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten,” he added.
Katz’s comments came as the IDF said on Tuesday that it had approved Lebanon battle plans. The IDF said the generals held an assessment, during which “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved” including “accelerating the readiness of the forces on the ground”.

Will they finally cross the political rubicon? They have been saying this since around February. Americans officials on the other hand are not going to be too pleased about being dragged into another Middle East war. There was a western article a couple days ago saying they were worried that Israeli bombing in Lebanon was preparation for a war
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General






Btw, stuff like this makes me think that the US totally miscalculated the century by investing in their usual outdated and expensive, large systems, also in terms of their empire's grand strategy (mindset) it seems as well.
Last part also applies for PLAN, there is no comprehensive solution to kamikaze drones right now. Not on Land not in the Sea.

Helicopters seems to counter kamikaze surface drones pretty hard. Even the Russian ones using machine guns against drones with SAMs.

Proper naval helicopters with lightweight missiles will make short work of drones. At least in terms of naval fleet protection. Convoy protection might be a different matter, and in an echo to WW2, escort carriers may be needed to properly protect convoys. This is where the 076 could potentially come into its own as its ability to launch and recover long endurance fixed wing UCAVs would give it a massive advantage in such a role over LHAs.

But back to the main point, kamikaze drones will have an extremely hard time trying to get past the defences of the likes of USN and PLAN who have the full spectrum of sensors, platforms and weapons needed to effectively deal with them owing primarily to the fact that kamikaze drones need to make physical contact with their targets.

However, should the PLAN turn their 022 stealthy missile boats into long range missile spamming drones, well that might be a very different matter.
 

Virtup

Junior Member
Registered Member
I dunno, to me this looks like Hezbollah goading Israel to attack them. Why would they do that ? Are they expecting the US to avoid getting involved ? Or are they prepared for that scenario ? Or is this part of some sort of a master plan by Iran and it's backers (RU and CN) to get the US stuck in a quagmire ? I just don't think Hezbollah leadership are ignorant or suicidal. I guess time will tell.
 

RottenPanzer

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I dunno, to me this looks like Hezbollah goading Israel to attack them. Why would they do that ? Are they expecting the US to avoid getting involved ? Or are they prepared for that scenario ? Or is this part of some sort of a master plan by Iran and it's backers (RU and CN) to get the US stuck in a quagmire ? I just don't think Hezbollah leadership are ignorant or suicidal. I guess time will tell.
Hezbollah taken the initiative of conducting relatively substantial skirmishes in order to show solidarity towards Gaza and diverting much of the Israel resources in order too eased the situation around Gaza. I think, it is even more suicidal if Hezbollah did not attack at all actually.
 

Serb

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master plan by Iran and it's backers (RU and CN) to get the US stuck in a quagmire ?

This might be a part of it (similarly this might happen in the Venezuela-Guyana situation also even before it happens there). I fully predict that as soon as elections in the US are over, the US will go fully into war there to Israel's North against Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shia militias from Iraq and Syria that will also come to assist Hezbollah through the Golan Heights (Iran will probably support them much more heavily in this case, who knows to which extent by that point). When Israel orders them, the Americans don't have a choice, we have seen this clearly by now. Israel is a little smarter than the rest of the Westoid countries and they see that this is the twilight of Western dominance and even civilization, in the world, so they seek to do as much as possible for the future where the US empire still exists in this form and on this level. They want to jointly attack Hezbollah, with the US troops leading the way, it is just that they want to do this after the US elections pass (for obvious reasons), and Hezbollah knows this too likely, so they can make some moves earlier now without much response and they are using it (preparatory moves).

I just don't think Hezbollah leadership are ignorant or suicidal. I guess time will tell.

No, Israel and the US are just that weak, they saw how badly Israel performed against Hamas in Gaza, and the US can't do anything against Houthis, also failed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. They are prepared, they have huge numbers, advanced weapons, more tunnels than in Gaza, etc. Also, you have to keep in mind that countries like Lebanon and Yemen already have fully wrecked economies, so the only things fueling the political support there might be anti-Zionist and anti-imperialistic ideology to a large extent. Lebanon is still in a better situation than Yemen, so that's why they held a little more patience for Israel, but by the looks of it, they also saw writing on the wall. And they don't think they will lose.
 
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JJD1803

Junior Member
Registered Member
I dunno, to me this looks like Hezbollah goading Israel to attack them. Why would they do that ? Are they expecting the US to avoid getting involved ? Or are they prepared for that scenario ? Or is this part of some sort of a master plan by Iran and it's backers (RU and CN) to get the US stuck in a quagmire ? I just don't think Hezbollah leadership are ignorant or suicidal. I guess time will tell.
Hezbollah’s strategy has been to wage a war of attrition against Israel in the north while the IOF is bogged down in the Gaza meatgrinder. Hezbollah is pretty confident in their capabilities in the event of Israel going for full scale war. Based on Israeli ground forces poor performance on the ground in Gaza against the weakest member of the axis of resistance it has exposed how weak they truly. Before this war many Israeli ex generals have complained that the Israeli military is air force heavy and ground force light. If Israel launches a ground war Hezbollah is pretty confident they’ll maul Ithe ground forces. They have a large supply of atgms,man pads, claymores, anti tank mines. Plus the terrain benefits the defender. South Lebanon is very hilly and semi mountainous. Israel lost 9 troops in one Namer APC vehicle ambush in Gaza and that shocked Israeli society. Imagine they lose 4 or 5 of those acps full of troops in one day of fighting. The casualties would be unsustainable for them.

And on the idea if Hezbollah is suicidal I would say Israel is the one who may be ignorant and suicidal. Israel has threatened to bomb Lebanon back to the Stone Age but Nasrallah has stated Hezbollah has the capability to also bomb Israel back to the Stone Age. An Al Quds Iranian spokesperson was quoted in Foreign Policy magazine that Hezbollah has a million forms of atgms,rockets,ballistic/cruise missiles and drones. And doesn’t account that other factions in the axis of resistance will ramp up their fire against Israel. If that happens Israel’s economy will collapse, people will flee leading to a major strategic crisis for Israel. Also if their ground forces are mauled like Ukraine’s forces in last summer offensive debacle Hezbollah will launch a counter attack to the seize the Sheba Farms And it is reported that 100k+ foreign Shia fighters will flock to Syria swarm the Golan Heights and take it back. That would likely lead to a major collapse within Israel. There is reason why ex Israeli generals aren’t thrilled about war with Hezbollah.

If the US gets involved then the entire axis of resistance will get involved and then you have a full scale regional war. If Iran and their allies intervened on behalf of an Alawite in Syria or Sunnis Gaza I have no doubt they will all come together in the defense of Hezbollah. It would be a war like I said in previous post that the US has no idea to win. It would be bogged down in a bloody unpopular regional war.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Reportedly, the US has already given the green light along with full support for the invasion of Lebanon. If true, then we could see massive escalation in Mid to Late July at the earliest.

In his meetings in Beirut on Tuesday, US envoy Amos Hochstein delivered "blunt" warnings to Lebanese officials that Israel is preparing to launch a limited offensive on Hezbollah and will have the US's support if a diplomatic solution isn't found, a senior Arab official told Middle East Eye.
Hochstein told Lebanese officials that Israel anticipates roughly five more weeks of intense fighting in Gaza, after which it will pause its main offensive across the enclave.
But Hochstein warned Lebanese officials, in anticipation that the message would be delivered to Hezbollah, that the US would back its ally fully if fighting doesn't stop in the next five weeks.
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