Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
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Houthis claim some big hits lately but we have nothing to confirm. They claim USS Eisenhower 2 weeks after claiming hit on destroyer USS Mason.

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Someone have something credible on the table ?
Wait some more with passing judgement.

A potential sign if it is true, is gonna be shipping costs.

(also, read that actual, official, cctv might have also posted about it, in which case, the % of it being true is not low).
 

CaribouTruth

Junior Member
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JJD1803

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hermes-900 MALE drone shot down by Hezbollah over Lebanon.
Possibly the third Hermes-900 drone shot down till date, few more Hermes-450 have also been shot down upto now.

Hezbollah strike on what is claimed to be the headquarters of Eastern Brigade 769 in Kiryat Shmona.
People don’t realize how much of a disaster what’s going on the north is for Israel. If you read and listen to Hebrew media it’s a full blown crisis. About 40% of the people fled the north only to be refugees in their own country. And the govt is paying them for hotel stays which is another drain on an economy on a war footing. The remaining 60% are staying with hopes that a military operation would put a stop to the Hezbollah attacks. But they are slowly losing hope. And many Israeli politicians in the north of nothing is done the remaining people still flee essentially leaving it deserted.



That means if tomorrow Israel with Hamas reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Hezbollah stops their attacks people will still flee. The reason? Because they have no faith in their government and military to deter Hezbollah. And this strikes at the heart of Zionism. The whole point of Israel is this safe space for Jews worldwide. If nothing is done slowly and surely Israel will depopulate as people will leave not feeling safe. And these will be the ones with money and highly skilled.



However if Israel decides that it must get back deterrence it will have to fight a full scale war with Hezbollah. But there are problems with that scenario. Hezbollah is a much more stronger and larger military force than Hamas.

Their Arsenal is much larger and more devastating. The casualties that Israel is taking now in Gaza will be nothing if they stupidly invade the hills of south Lebanon. They have a large arsenal of advanced atgms and manpads which will negate Israeli armor and helicopters. They have ballistic missiles that can kill higher numbers of Israeli soldiers. The Houthis did this in 2015 when they fired a Tochka missile at a UAE base in South Yemen killing 67 GCC coalition soldiers. Imagine that happening to Israel. Losing 70 or even 80+ troops in one attack? Not to mention the ground war will be a debacle with high Israeli casualties.



And the other thing is Hezbollah has the art of surprise. Everyone knows how Israel will fight but Israel does not know Hezbollahs full capabilities. And yes Israel has the capability to heavily bomb Lebanon but Hezbollah has the same capabilities to hit Israel hard. They have missiles and drones that can hit critical infrastructure from Qiryat Shmona to Eliat. And the axis of resistance have said if Israel goes to war with Hezbollah they all will fire drones and missiles at Israel. So Israe will be attacked from everywhere,depleting their air defense. Leading to catastrophic hits on critical infrastructure. Doing so would collapse the Israeli economy leading to a panicked mass migration out of the nation.



Hezbollah has significantly increased their capabilities from 2005. Yet Israel has been stagnant dare I say declined militarily since then. So Israel has really hard choices it has to figure out. In short it has lost deterrence at a time it has lost strategically. Only way they get out of this is if the US goes to war with them against Iran. And I don’t think how bad things are with the US military right now. So it’s either they die slow with the status quo or die fast with a full scale regional war.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
People don’t realize how much of a disaster what’s going on the north is for Israel. If you read and listen to Hebrew media it’s a full blown crisis. About 40% of the people fled the north only to be refugees in their own country. And the govt is paying them for hotel stays which is another drain on an economy on a war footing. The remaining 60% are staying with hopes that a military operation would put a stop to the Hezbollah attacks. But they are slowly losing hope. And many Israeli politicians in the north of nothing is done the remaining people still flee essentially leaving it deserted.
The first Israeli internal refugees fled to Eilat, from northern Israel and the areas around Gaza. Then Yemen started hitting Eilat, collapsing the local economy. They fled again to an unknown area; many just fled the country.
Hezbollah has significantly increased their capabilities from 2005. Yet Israel has been stagnant dare I say declined militarily since then. So Israel has really hard choices it has to figure out. In short it has lost deterrence at a time it has lost strategically. Only way they get out of this is if the US goes to war with them against Iran. And I don’t think how bad things are with the US military right now. So it’s either they die slow with the status quo or die fast with a full scale regional war.
Mercenaries are already fighting in Gaza for Israel. Many reports of US army as well. USAF and USN is providing daily intel services from KSA, Jordan/Iraq, the Mediterranean, and Red Sea. USA has/can send in regular troops without announcing it publicly, send regular troops as mercenaries, or actual mercenaries on hire. At this time, we cannot even rule out the possibility that airstrikes in Gaza may have been conducted by the US.

You're right about Israel's lost deterrence and image of safe place for Jews. Hence, IDF will likely attempt to expand the war into Lebanon to assert dominance, even if it's a strategic mistake.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
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