Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

plawolf

Lieutenant General
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Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target, three U.S. officials said.
U.S. officials said that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles that targeted Israel. When asked for more details about those strikes, the officials acknowledged that only about half of them were intercepted successfully. The rest failed in flight and didn't reach their targets, the officials said.
"So much for the vaunted ballistic-missile capability of Iran," said a U.S. official.

Rather poor maintenance and quality control from Iran if true…also means Israel’s interception rate is inaccurate and rather bullshit. Still though, if half of their BMs are going to fail each strike, it’s going to take far more to overwhelm Israel’s ABM systems.

A lot of the pictures of crashed/shot down ‘Iranian ballistic missiles’ being paraded in front the of the press look awfully like ejected spen first stage fuel tanks to me.

Seems far more likely America is in full mental gymnastics mode with its creative accounting to pump up Israeli intercept rates and play down the Iranian attack all to make Israel feel better so they don’t light the match that will blow up the whole Middle East in a childish temper tantrum.

Just, whatever you do, don’t add up all the numbers and percentages, because if Israel and allies shot down 99% of the 300 Iranian missiles and drones and another 50% crashed by themselves, you get Ukrainian intercept numbers where the only way it fits reality is if the footage of all the hits are actually Israeli intercept rockets hitting targets in Iran.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
The notion of Iran as a perpetual punching bag has likely vanished, 110+ years of established dogma gone. So in terms of diplomacy this entire episode should be in Iran's favour.

Whether it's a military success depends on what the goal is. If it was supposed to destroy a big portion of the Israeli airforce, then it's certainly an Israeli victory. If it's instead a simulated nuclear strike, then hitting some of the most well defended areas in Israel and likely on Earth with their ballistic missiles might count as an Iranian success.

The Iranian response is smart, strong, and decisive, and it has confused Netanyahu's calculations and his aggressive policy. There are those who do not like the response for many considerations, and this is taken for granted, because it is against Iran all along. That is why I present here an objective reading far from prior positions.

Merely launching hundreds of marches and missiles at Israel is considered an important precedent upon which to break the prestige of the occupation and threaten its existence.

Tehran has succeeded in strengthening new rules of engagement based on several foundations: first, for every action there is a reaction, and the time of waiting for a response to come at the appropriate time and place has ended. Iran will protect its sovereignty and policy in the region, and will work to strengthen its presence and capabilities in the region.

That is why I think it is difficult for Israel to respond directly to Iran, and Netanyahu will swallow his tongue and swallow the blow. Indeed, the occupation operations targeting Iranian activity in Syria will become complicated, and the Israeli occupation will make many calculations before any operation targeting Iran, overtly or covertly.

The other matter is that I believe that this response came with the information of neighboring countries. Iran informed everyone who had the marches flying over them before the attack. Therefore, it was an announced act and not a secret one, and it increased the strength of the response. It is a purposeful political act and not a purely operational act.

However, there are reports of the arrival of many... Of missiles on precise military bases and airports in northern Palestine and in the south, and the Israeli occupation is concealing the losses due to strict military oversight, but Israel knows what it was exposed to, just as Iran knows what it targeted. Iran also tested the Israeli defense force at the lowest cost and without a price, with “old marches.”

It seems that Biden also took advantage of the Iranian response to deliver clear messages to Netanyahu: that without the United States he is worth zero.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
Iran deterred Israel. And Israel is now deterred from striking Iranians or Iranian infrastructure in Syria.

They're asking the US to break this new equation. Because they themselves can't. That's why US said it will respond if Iran fires on Israel again. Because Israel can't do jack shit. So it will test this equation by attacking Iranian infrastructure in Syria in coming weeks or months if US gives greenlight and is actually going to attack Iran on behalf of Israel asserting its equation.

It's the US trying to assert these rules of engagement for Israel. Israel by itself cannot do anything.

 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Americans haven't avoided anything yet. It's still an ongoing situation. They now have to put a lot of resources and time into the Middle East and those are resources and time they can't use for either domestic or other international purposes. This is going to end up costing the Americans billions even without a wider regional war. This is likely not going to cost China a dime.

And in the meantime their proxy war in Ukraine is headed south as they can't get the aid to Ukraine that's needed. This is because of both domestic political infighting as well as the crisis in the Middle East.

It goes further than that.

The odds of a direct US-China war have dropped even more.

After the Pelosi episode, when the US actually had to face the prospect of an actual war, I suspect that US hardliners looked at the situation and balked at what a US-China would actually mean.

And now, suppose China believes that its redlines are going to be crossed such as with Taiwan independence and that a war with the US is inevitable?

China could actively support the proxy war against Israel's mass starvation (arguably genocide?) of 2 million in Gaza and the decades long military occupation of 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank. My guess is that such objectives would enjoy broad support around the world. Remember that the latest polls show that even in the USA, 55% of Americans disapprove of what Israel is doing in Gaza.

In such a scenario, my best guess is that Israel would face a Taiwan-type scenario where its electricity grid has been destroyed and Israel itself is under missile blockade for weeks/months/years.

If the US supports Israel, then they become the "bad guys" in much of the world. That also means the US Navy escorting cargo ships running a missile blockade similar to a Taiwan scenario, which would be very costly.
 
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aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
China could actively support the proxy war against Israel's mass starvation (arguably genocide?) of 2 million in Gaza and the decades long military occupation of 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank. My guess is that such objectives would enjoy broad support around the world. Remember that the latest polls show that even in the USA, 55% of Americans disapprove of what Israel is doing in Gaza.

The Jewish-American community is pushing for a final solution of Palestinians and a war on Iran.

What happens from now depends on the non-Jewish American majority. If they can push back against Jewish-American community efforts to complete their Holocaust and trigger a regional war.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
It seems the situation is basically a change of Status Quo akin to that of Pelosi's Taiwan visit causing the median line of the strait become irrelevant. Now Israel does know for certain that Iran can directly strike their territory and they aren't deterred about it anymore, which means that any attack on Iranian interesests might not go unanswered.

Regardless of how those strikes might be effective on the ground, it still poses mental impact on the Israeli population plus an economic drain if they are forced to spend +1 billion dollars in 4 hours.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
It seems the situation is basically a change of Status Quo akin to that of Pelosi's Taiwan visit causing the median line of the strait become irrelevant. Now Israel does know for certain that Iran can directly strike their territory and they aren't deterred about it anymore, which means that any attack on Iranian interesests might not go unanswered.

Regardless of how those strikes might be effective on the ground, it still poses mental impact on the Israeli population plus an economic drain if they are forced to spend +1 billion dollars in 4 hours.
You know what bro, Iran action reverberate back here in the Philippine, Marcos Washington visit instead of helping him had become a liability. Israel is US golden boy, even with American full support they can't defeat Iran what more with us VS China. Reality do set in and he had to de escalate.

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