Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

_killuminati_ said:

For the first time, Israeli citizens have felt actual fear in the safety of their homes throughout the country. The idea that we can no longer do as we please without consequence has rattled the psyche of this snake which ultimately puts a limit to Israel's normal modes of operation. This, the apartheid, cannot allow because it is a settler-colonial and expansionist state with conquest motives reaching far beyond it's current border.

Therefore, I believe, Israel will launch an operation soon to alleviate the consequences dealt by this Persian dagger in an attempt to reestablish the former status quo.

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The attack was Impressive, hundreds of drones, create fear and get the population scrambling. Deplete Israeli air defense missiles and fire ballistic and other missiles through the holes created.

All Iran has to do is prepare for the next attack on Israel, that alone will be sufficient to keep Israel in check that's the reason:

Why Israel is so desperate to drag the U.S into the conflict?
Why the U.S is so hesitant?

They know any attack on Iran, the Iranians will take punishment, BUT they will also deliver punisher on every U.S or Israeli target they can hit, they will wipe the U.S out of the region

And in the end the conflict will come to a end, Iran will still be there and the U.S bases would be gone, hell even the U.S base in Bahrain would be obliterated

With the risk of long term off and on shots being fired

All at the same time Russia is starting to win in Ukraine, China is waiting and biding it's time

I repeat, the U.S does not want to get involved, so if it's just Israel then Iran will not give a warning shot and will hit multiple targets in Israel

aahyan said:

Following are the AD systems Iran has:

Similar to Arrow/THAAD -

• Arman ABM (not fully operational)
• a BM size interceptor that was seen years ago and theorized to be an Anti-Sat/AWAC/ABM interceptor, I forgot what it was called I think it had the word “hoda” in it.

Similar to David Sling/Patriot -

• Bavar 373
• 3vome Khordad,
• Mehran,
• 15 Khordad,
• Tatical Sayyad
• Talash

Similar to TOR-M1/M2/M3 -

• Zoubin

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The Alam Al-Hoda is speculated to be an ultra long range SAM based on the Fateh BM. It's speculated to be used against AEW, tanker aircraft, ISR platforms, bombers and such. Not officially admitted to be an actual system but due to its strategic implications, might very well exist. Some years ago a satellite pic went around showing the huge radar.

Likely candidates-

• Iranian Hypersonic Fattah-1 or 2
• Unannounced Iranian Ballistic missile
• Unannounced Supersonic CM

Less likely-

• Secret Iranian hypersonic cruise missile project
• Supersonic LO drone

The performance of the F-35A is enough to reach the Iranian border and back, but it is not possible to penetrate Iranian territory. It is necessary to refuel over Iraq. There is information that the Iranians have developed external tanks for their F-35s but there has not yet been proof that they are operational. They would give some extra breathing room to fighters that can carry 5000 pounds of bombs in their internal compartments.


Israel's possible responses:
1 - conventional air strike with mid-air refueling over Iraq
2 - low-cost suicide drone swarm attack
Ex: Harop in standalone mode
3- Jericho II ballistic missile attack
4 - long-range air strike using Popeye Turbo air-launched subsonic cruise missiles from Jordan

By the way, a curiosity here:

Report after report of F-35 incursions into Iranian airspace apparently undetected. The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported in March that Israel flew F-35s at high altitudes over Syria and Iraq undetected in Iranian airspace on a reconnaissance mission over Bandar Abbas, Isfahan and Shiraz.

Although experts have dismissed the likelihood of Israel conducting high-risk missions at this time, this is a plausible scenario for the future. After all, Israel has carried out many audacious espionage and sabotage operations in Iran. I believe this is probably true because Israel will have to practice rehearsal before attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

To be even more dramatic here, in this whole story, the Iranian general was fired for hiding the fact that the IDF flew over his country.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and various EU countries all jumped in to defend Israel. That's not really good news for Iran. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those countries all continue to help Israel and even allow Israel to use their airspace to launch attacks against Iran, which is a pretty big issue for Iran.

Following tankers are in the region currently....

HighGround said:

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and various EU countries all jumped in to defend Israel. That's not really good news for Iran. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those countries all continue to help Israel and even allow Israel to use their airspace to launch attacks against Iran, which is a pretty big issue for Iran.

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No, it's not. The last strike disproved everyone's assumptions despite everyone's best efforts to thwart the attack, shattering the illusion of invincible....And in case of Israel attack, Iran will revert with more force.

In case they are analyzing again to attack:

• target one area instead of dispersing strikes across Israel (ideally Negev / Eilat again) - increase load on local ABM
• start with unannounced MRBM strikes (<10 minutes from launch to impact) instead of UAVs that give 8 hour notice
• strike in waves of 100 missiles, each 20-30 minutes after the last - ensuring the next wave arrives before the ABM systems can reload (Arrow takes 1 hour to reload)

Cheap Shahab-3 / Rezvan are good candidates for first wave (food for ABM depletion but still have to be intercepted due to high speed and large warhead), to be followed by more Emad / Ghadr / Kheibar Shekan in second wave. This should increase success rate substantially

ABM radars / launchers are good target for second wave. can include 10-20 Fattah-1 missiles aimed at Green Pine radar in second wave.