Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Franklin

Captain
Whether successful or not just by retaliating is a victory in itself, it burst the bubble of Israel invincibility and it make a precedent for any Israelis misadventure in the region.

The major losers
1)Israel
2)Jordan
3)Egypt
4)Europe
5)Turkey

the winner
1)Iran
2)Russia
3)China
4)Yemen
5)Hezbollah
6)Syria
and the US with a great relief ;) to able to contained the problem from spreading.
The only winners are China and Russia as America and her allies attention and resources are now diverted elsewhere. Everyone else on that list is a loser in the current situation.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
In Syria the chances are close to 100%. Unless Iran strengthened its defense. IAF planes fly freely in Syrian airspace with Russian complacency.

Israel has the option of Jordan > Iraq > Iran
or
Saudi Arabia > Iran
or of course
Syria > Iraq > Iran

All three options are on the table.

@ansy1968
I saw that Egypt just closed its airspace. What else did he do to earn loser status in this situation?

I would also include France on the list of losers because Macron confirmed that he used his fighter jets in Jordan to help intercept Iran's drones.

Iran does not have the capacity to engage F35s which will spearhead any kinetic strike over Iran but what will be the consequence after that another 5 hour strike on Israel cost upwards of 10billion US$ and if strait of hormuz gets blocked.

In new equation Israel cannot do kinetic strike on Iran - stakes are too high and cost is unbearable.

I am starting to think that whole Iran Embassy attack was to lure the Hizbullah that was the calculation by israel. Iran did what they did not thought. now Hizbullah is intact, Iran can produce at least 2-3 waves of 5 hours missile strikes.

Economically unbearable in any scenario. its a chess game and unfortunately or fortunately - Iran has checkmated Israel.

There is a reason that Iran did not take precautions after the missile offensive. no rationing of fuel - no closure of airspace - no open order to High alert, no combat flying of airforce - nothing!

Very well calculated move!
 

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target, three U.S. officials said.
U.S. officials said that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles that targeted Israel. When asked for more details about those strikes, the officials acknowledged that only about half of them were intercepted successfully. The rest failed in flight and didn't reach their targets, the officials said.
"So much for the vaunted ballistic-missile capability of Iran," said a U.S. official.

Rather poor maintenance and quality control from Iran if true…also means Israel’s interception rate is inaccurate and rather bullshit. Still though, if half of their BMs are going to fail each strike, it’s going to take far more to overwhelm Israel’s ABM systems.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target, three U.S. officials said.
U.S. officials said that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles that targeted Israel. When asked for more details about those strikes, the officials acknowledged that only about half of them were intercepted successfully. The rest failed in flight and didn't reach their targets, the officials said.
"So much for the vaunted ballistic-missile capability of Iran," said a U.S. official.

Rather poor maintenance and quality control from Iran if true…also means Israel’s interception rate is inaccurate and rather bullshit. Still though, if half of their BMs are going to fail each strike, it’s going to take far more to overwhelm Israel’s ABM systems.

Yes.... We intercepted 99 percent of the missiles....

Screenshot_20240415_115318_com.virasty.app~01.jpg
 

Franklin

Captain
You have to include the American, this time they had successfully escape another quagmire.
You have to include the American, this time they had successfully escape another quagmire.
The Americans haven't avoided anything yet. It's still an ongoing situation. They now have to put a lot of resources and time into the Middle East and those are resources and time they can't use for either domestic or other international purposes. This is going to end up costing the Americans billions even without a wider regional war. This is likely not going to cost China a dime.

And in the meantime their proxy war in Ukraine is headed south as they can't get the aid to Ukraine that's needed. This is because of both domestic political infighting as well as the crisis in the Middle East.
 
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