Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Warning time by launching UAVs = 6-8 hours

Warning time by launching MRBMs = 7-10 minutes

It's clear Iran took measures to deliver a carefully calibrated response designed to restore deterrence without forcing Israel into war.

This attack was not meant to cause mass death an destruction so Iran did not use it's top of the line weapons systems. This attack was a warning that Iran will attack israeli territory directly and next time it might be more severe, fatal and deadly. The paradigm has shifted. The barrier of the fear of attacking Israeli territory directly by a nation has been broken.
My take, American guarantee is broken, everyone in my home country the Philippines, Taiwan, SK, Japan and even Australia may have second thought. I'm thinking there will be no more antics in the SCS and in Taiwan as the US will forbade anymore reckless adventure that will further erode their prestige and forced a war they're not prepare for.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Warning time by launching UAVs = 6-8 hours

Warning time by launching MRBMs = 7-10 minutes

It's clear Iran took measures to deliver a carefully calibrated response designed to restore deterrence without forcing Israel into war.

This attack was not meant to cause mass death an destruction so Iran did not use it's top of the line weapons systems. This attack was a warning that Iran will attack israeli territory directly and next time it might be more severe, fatal and deadly. The paradigm has shifted. The barrier of the fear of attacking Israeli territory directly by a nation has been broken.
Exactly, Iran doesn't fear Israel now they obviously don't want anything to do with USA so only an Iran already possessing Nukes would explain this boldness, Let's wait for Saudi-Pakistani response that would confirm the suspicions.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
One way to achieve that goal is to launch hundred of shitty over best date old MRBMs easy to be intercepted and mix in a dozen of the good stuff with modern penetration aid for their intended target. This may explain why most of the missiles that got through landed on that one airfield

Iran was just teasing and Israeli air defense system with rusty expired subsonic missiles and toy drones (100-200). The total operational cost for Israel was probably billions of USD in just 12 hours, not to mention the hits and psychological and economical damage. Imagine what 20000 small drones, missiles can do in 1 week.

Folks are missing the big picture here: Israel went defensive .. maybe for the first time in the past x years and it was made clear that others have red lines and offensive capabilities as well.

The goal was not to kill civilians.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
My take, American guarantee is broken, everyone in my home country the Philippines, Taiwan, SK, Japan and even Australia may have second thought. I'm thinking there will be no more antics in the SCS and in Taiwan as the US will forbade anymore reckless adventure that will further erode their prestige and forced a war they're not prepare for.

They want to spin a false win, Israel was terrified last night

Remember this is DAY 1, with atleast 4 countries scrambling to try and protect Israel

These waves of attacks will decimate Israeli air defence if they continued

You don't have to worry about Day 1
You have to worry about Day 6, 200 or 2602, that's when reserve's are finished and your stuck

Look at the Israeli running and scrambling all night, they don't want to respond without U.S protection and the U.S doesn't want to escalate

So now it's all narrative, saying "we don't care, we stopped the Maj of the attack so we are fine" a false W for the masses when everyone knows what happened
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Iran was just teasing and Israeli air defense system with rusty expired subsonic missiles and toy drones (100-200). The total operational cost for Israel was probably billions of USD in just 12 hours, not to mention the hits and psychological and economical damage. Imagine what 20000 small drones, missiles can do in 1 week.

Folks are missing the big picture here: Israel went defensive .. maybe for the first time in the past x years and it was made clear that others have red lines and offensive capabilities as well.

The goal was not to kill civilians.

No the goal is of course not to kill civilians, where do you get that idea from my posts? It is to establish deterrence.

Israel should be given a good idea what the damage will be if the strikes are a little more numerous with more advanced systems, thus deterring them from further escalation. In this manner Iran has achieved their primary objective
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
One consequence of this operation, no more American patriots for Ukraine

US will have to deploy a lot more air defence systems to middle East, especially if Israel is going to attack Iran. Even Europeans are probably not going to give away their air defense to Ukraine.
 

aahyan

Senior Member
Registered Member
Exactly, Iran doesn't fear Israel now they obviously don't want anything to do with USA so only an Iran already possessing Nukes would explain this boldness, Let's wait for Saudi-Pakistani response that would confirm the suspicions.

Israels invincibility was completely shattered last night.

It showed how much they rely on the US to protect them. Other nations got involved to help defend them.

Iran sent slow kamakazi drones giving them plenty of time to mobilise and intercept them and they are now chest thumping on their successful defence. That was the purpose of those drones to be expendable and limit casulties.

The CMs and BMs, how many and what types is more serious to look at. A number of them got through to their target which means Iran achieved its objective with Israel being ready for more than 72hrs. Just let that sink in, with all their defenses and allies protecting them in position and ready for more than 24hrs their airbase was still hit.

To me this didn't seem like a sharp Iranian response. It was deliberately blunted, purpose was to show capability and shock and awe which was achieved.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wondering what if Iran launched the 2nd wave?

Despite assistance from the US, UK, France, Jordan, and several weeks of preparation, the initial wave of Iran's attack caused chaos in Israel/US & EU.
Where is the chaos in Israel, US and EU?
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exactly, Iran doesn't fear Israel now they obviously don't want anything to do with USA so only an Iran already possessing Nukes would explain this boldness, Let's wait for Saudi-Pakistani response that would confirm the suspicions.
What response you expect from Saudis or Pakistanis? Not long ago Iran fired missiles at Pakistan and Pakistan struck back Iran the next day, not 2 weeks later.

At state level, this isn't Pakistan's or business, they'll wish and hope for de-escalation and mind their own business.

Iran struck back after it's embassy was hit, not when Gaza was being pummeled. Stop channeling this as if Iran acted for Gaza, Iran themselves claim they acted in defense of their consulate.

Regarding nukes, none of Iran's neighbors would prefer Iran gets the nukes. Iran has tried to play the proxy game in Pakistan too but it never really took off because the security apparatus in Pakistan is not like whatever Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and also smaller % of population that could be sympathetic to Iranian ideology.
 
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