Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

TK3600 said:

What is the IDF navy even doing. Can't they escort their own stuff by missile interception?

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The Israeli Navy has ships which are packed to the gills with weapon systems. Would even put a Russian ship to shame really. But the thing is their ships have abysmal endurance because of this. They cannot operate without being in distance of friendly supply bases.

The Israelis also lack anything larger than a corvette. And they don't have that many large corvettes either.

Michaelsinodef said:

It really does seem like the upper leadership in IDF (potentially also Israel) is engaged in adventurism/opportunism.

First with attacking southern Gaza after they encountered heavy resistance and problems in northern Gaza (and couldn't destroy resistance in the north), and then it turned out that the south wasn't easy as well.

And now they want to attack up northern against Hezbollah?

Lol, they are gonna get their asses beaten (not to mention, they have basically been screaming about the threat and strength of Hezbollah the last 1-2 decades, and before oct 7, they saw Hezbollah as an enemy in the 10 times + more dangerous than Hamas lol, oh, and Hezbollah really does live up to that judgement, probably even more).

Only hope is really that US will come and 'save' them, although it's honestly a question if they even can lol.

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I think it's more that they must show victories in order to negotiate down the blockade.

Israeli economy is fragile. The whole territory is open to being bombed by random people around them, who all hate them and now have casus belli to do so. Combined with poor international human rights reputation, soon it's going to become uninvestable if it isn't already. That's a death sentence as they run on doing outsourced white collar office work, mostly for the west but also for east Asia.

If they want a deal now, it's going to have to come through China. What I read rumors about is that if Israel accepts negotiated ceasefire, charges and sanctions will be dropped, Israel can return to status quo ante bellum. But with the condition that Netanyahu regime has to resign. If that's true, it's a pretty raw deal that doesn't leave it up to imagination which side was defeated.

If Hezbollah is smart, they would be dug in by this point now. While northern Gaza was a grozny style battle, this will probably be more similar to the battles in the Ukrainian war.

Kinda astonishing Israel don't have any ship for escort when their nation depends on sea trade.

Michaelsinodef said:

It really does seem like the upper leadership in IDF (potentially also Israel) is engaged in adventurism/opportunism.

First with attacking southern Gaza after they encountered heavy resistance and problems in northern Gaza (and couldn't destroy resistance in the north), and then it turned out that the south wasn't easy as well.

And now they want to attack up northern against Hezbollah?

Lol, they are gonna get their asses beaten (not to mention, they have basically been screaming about the threat and strength of Hezbollah the last 1-2 decades, and before oct 7, they saw Hezbollah as an enemy in the 10 times + more dangerous than Hamas lol, oh, and Hezbollah really does live up to that judgement, probably even more).

Only hope is really that US will come and 'save' them, although it's honestly a question if they even can lol.

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Part of the goal is to economically cripple their opposition and just fuck with the populations there. That's why they do Gaza every few years and why they've always been instigating civil wars in Lebanon and Syria and encouraging US adventurism in middle east, look at Iraq, Libya and what has become of these countries, these countries are in forever-rebuilding mode. Iran smartened up and used the approach of proxies vs states rather than going on a state-vs-state showdown and got lucky in a way because while US was busy there, China almost caught up and that changed their priorities, ideally they'd have loved to do their pivot-to-asia (aka against China) without the Ukraine and Middle East distractions.

In summary, You cant let the natives get away with too much and need to mow them down periodically, you have to think this from a colonial mindset, i know it does not come naturally and it's not humane to people in global south and east, but that is what it is. Also means you can continue to use them as cheap resources and continue to exploit them.

Biscuits said:

If Hezbollah is smart, they would be dug in by this point now. While northern Gaza was a grozny style battle, this will probably be more similar to the battles in the Ukrainian war.

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News came out a few days ago that Hezbollah is fortifying some positions in southern Lebanon but I don't know how true this could be.

Michaelsinodef said:

It really does seem like the upper leadership in IDF (potentially also Israel) is engaged in adventurism/opportunism.

First with attacking southern Gaza after they encountered heavy resistance and problems in northern Gaza (and couldn't destroy resistance in the north), and then it turned out that the south wasn't easy as well.

And now they want to attack up northern against Hezbollah?

Lol, they are gonna get their asses beaten (not to mention, they have basically been screaming about the threat and strength of Hezbollah the last 1-2 decades, and before oct 7, they saw Hezbollah as an enemy in the 10 times + more dangerous than Hamas lol, oh, and Hezbollah really does live up to that judgement, probably even more).

Only hope is really that US will come and 'save' them, although it's honestly a question if they even can lol.

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That's just me playing Hoi4, aww damn the battle is red here, try breakthrough somewhere else....

They're probably running out of options, honestly can't tell what they're trying for now. Their no.1 objective is to take out Hamas, if that can't be done then what?

And what's up with Hamas in northern Gaza? These guys are still fighting? Can't fucking believe it...

Another important element is as long as the war is going, Netanyahu remains safe politically.

phrozenflame said:

Another important element is as long as the war is going, Netanyahu remains safe politically.

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I wonder for how long though, it’s not like as though Israel is invincible by any means, something has got to give eventually

Negotiators Close In on Hostage Deal That Would Halt Fighting in Gaza for Weeks​

A written draft agreement calls for the phased release of captives held by Hamas in exchange for a cessation in Israel’s military offensive for about two months.

American-led negotiators are edging closer to an agreement in which Israel would suspend its war in Gaza for about two months in exchange for the release of more than 100 hostages still held by Hamas, a deal that could be sealed in the next two weeks and would transform the conflict consuming the region.

Negotiators have developed a written draft agreement merging proposals offered by Israel and Hamas in the last 10 days into a basic framework that will be the subject of talks in Paris on Sunday. While there are still important disagreements to be worked out, negotiators are cautiously optimistic that a final accord is within reach, according to U.S. officials who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

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President Biden spoke by phone separately Friday with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, who have served as intermediaries with Hamas, to narrow the remaining differences. He is also sending his C.I.A. director,

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, to Paris for Sunday’s talks with Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials. If Mr. Burns makes enough progress, Mr. Biden may then send his Middle East coordinator,

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, who just returned to Washington, back to the region to help finalize the agreement.

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Is the genocide going to stop soon, and/or is Israel going to invade Lebanon?

Biscuits said:

If they go out in the red sea they'll probably be insta mobbed.

Houthis have been launching 1 missile at a time at US ships. Thats imho just theater, same as US striking some random sheds after warning the Houthis hours in advance they'll come. Yemenis don't actually want to sink an US navy ship and deal with the mess that will happen after. An Israeli ship is another matter, they won't hesitate to launch a big volley, and the Israeli ship would be fucked. They don't have anything with good missile defense.

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Not to mention the Israeli navy is actually extremely mediocre at best. They are only famous for small FAC attacks historically, and has basically never grown out of that phase and only have small ships that they overload with weapons, making their seakeeping capabilities extremely suspect. The weapons they do pack are mostly intended to punch down against hopelessly outmatched opponents instead of dealing with genuine near-peer threats.

To be brutally honest, if the Israeli navy went to the Red Sea, they might loose warships to the weather. And their warships don’t have much in the way of area anti-air to be able to offer much protection.