Troops continue to advance into the Strip as the number of casualties remains low and international pressure is bearable, but a deadly mistake or political “idiocy” could quickly change this situation.
After a period of doubt as IDF troops remained inactive on the Gaza border for weeks, the Israeli government demonstrated a serious commitment to a ground invasion of the Hamas-run enclave.
Three divisions lie within the northern half of the Gaza Strip, cutting the territory in half and making steady progress toward the heart of Gaza City.
A month after the start of the war, launched in the wake of the Hamas massacres on October 7, Israel's military and political leadership are proud of significant achievements against Hamas. Israel's allies continue to support its attempts to destroy the terrorist organization and the unity government directing the war appears stable.
But there is reason to worry, even if the war appears to have gone even better than expected at this point.
'With great wisdom, with great care'
After October 7, experts warned that the imminent ground invasion would be “very, very messy.” The US sent military experts to Israel to allegedly convince its leaders that urban combat would be too bloody and that a more prudent course would be an operation consisting of airstrikes and special forces attacks.
Instead, Israel took a different path, dispatching tanks, infantry and combat engineers in deliberate maneuvers through the dunes and fields of territory along the border before reaching the suburbs of Gaza City. Thousands of reservists joined much of the active military force within the Strip.
A handout photo shows IDF soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip, in photos distributed on November 4, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces)
Ten days later, some observers are breathing a cautious sigh of relief.
“I'm surprised by how well the ground invasion seems to be going,” said Michael Oren, Israel's former ambassador to the United States. “It seems to be going well, progressing slowly. There have been no major accidents so far.”
“I think it's going a little better than I expected in terms of rate of advance and casualty ratio,” agreed Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former deputy director of the National Security Council. of Israel.
“Given the extremely complex conditions, they are doing this very wisely and carefully.”
Lt. Ariel Reich, Sgt. Adi Danan, sergeant. Halel Solomon, sergeant. Erez Mishlovsky, Cpl. Lior Siminovich and Sgt. Roei Dawi, killed in Gaza on October 31, 2023.
Thirty-two IDF soldiers have died since the ground invasion began. Although each of these deaths is deeply felt in an already grieving Israeli society, this number is much lower than predicted.
In 2014, the army told the government that retaking the Strip would cost the lives of hundreds of soldiers and that the Israel Defense Forces would face numerous abductions by Hamas. It would also take about five years, the military said.
A retired IDF general said that just taking Gaza City would cost the lives of up to 700 soldiers.
But in a week and a half of urban combat against an enemy that had more than 15 years to prepare its defenses, Israel lost fewer soldiers than in the final act of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Even more important, the IDF has apparently so far done what it wants, when it wants. Hamas can fire RPGs before running back into the tunnels, but it hasn't shown itself capable of doing anything to stop the IDF from getting exactly where it wants.
IDF soldiers are able to calmly record videos of themselves dedicating the destruction of Hamas tunnels to murdered family members.
There are even reports from IDF assessments that Hamas' will to fight is collapsing under relentless Israeli pressure.
Such assessments may be an exaggeration, but there have been no surprises from Hamas since Israel intervened. The terrorist group appears to have retreated, struggling to react while the IDF maintains the initiative.
At this stage of the war and the ground phase, the tactical and operational situation looks as good as Israel could have hoped.
An important caveat: Israel's leaders have insisted that the ground operation will hasten the release of the 240 hostages. In fact, only one soldier has been released and Hamas shows no sign of feeling pressured to release him.
Furthermore, it is crucial that even as Israeli forces close in on Hamas headquarters in Gaza City, one pressing question hangs over the entire war: how long does Israel have?
TIC Tac
When Israel goes to war, the diplomatic clock starts ticking. The IDF must achieve its objectives before international pressure becomes so great that a ceasefire has to be agreed.
There was almost nothing Egypt could do to stop Israel from destroying its Third Army at the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, but intense US pressure convinced Jerusalem to stop the offensive before it wanted to. In 1996, during Operation Grapes of Wrath in Lebanon, Israeli bombs hit a UN compound near the village of Qana, killing more than a hundred civilians. International outrage forced Israel to end the operation against Hezbollah.
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“When you’re fighting in this kind of dense, urbanized area,” Oren warned, “you’re only a tank or a JDAM away from Qana.”
