Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

OTCDebunker said:

Honestly, I get the feeling that we are about to hear bad news for the Palestinians.

I can't help but feel why they would schedule such a public announcement if they were going to actually enter the war. If they were going to join wouldn't you just launch a surprise attack of some kind and be done with it?

That way you can maximize the damage you can do when the enemy is off guard and you have the element of surprise.

But if you're plan was to enter the war and you first decide to say "hey dudebros! We're going to attack you like pretty soon so you should get nice and ready and prepare yourselves so that our attack will be less effective than it otherwise would've been." how does that make any sense?

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In military terms, if Hezbollah did enter this war it would be a very bad decision. They enjoy a huge defender's advantage with massive hills and a dense urban environment in Lebanon, and have imposed serious costs on the IDF for attempting to invade. Actually attacking Israel though would be completely different. Defender's advantage can compensate for enormous differences in capability but it doesn't work like that when going on the offense. If they tried to mount a major incursion into Israel it would go awfully for them, and for that reason I doubt they will formally intervene. It is possible we could see an expanded rocket strike campaign or sporadic small-scale incursions to try and draw IDF resources away from Gaza, but this would still carry significant risks of increased bombing by the Israeli side.

Israel had by now already killed more Palestinian civilians than Russians had killed Ukrainian civilians during the entire ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Going to be a bit brazen here:
I argue in this video that Israel's war in Gaza is a significant win for Chinese influence in the Middle East.
US structural support for Israel regardless of what Israel does will continue to be a stumbling block for US influence in the Middle East. Arab nations will continue to harbour a distrust of the US and resentment of Israel going forward, and as a result lead to greater engagement between Arab countries and Iran. US efforts to expand the Abraham Accord have been shattered, and US standing among the broader global south (better termed the global majority) has been damaged as a result of a demonstrable lack of moral principles and concern for human rights. Despite the reputational damage it has suffered, the US won't be able to cut its losses because it is ideologically attached to supporting Israel, which will continue to suck up American military and financial resources that would have been otherwise destined for the West Pacific and Ukraine. In contrast, China will be increasingly viewed as a benign partner and impartial mediator that Arab countries, Iran and Turkey can all work with.

Mirabo said:

Oh that's cool, if those are actual PG-7VR clones then they should do some serious damage. From the outside, they look almost identical to the original.

Edit: I just looked up what the Tandem 85 ammo looks like and it's quite different from the one in the footage. I'm 100% sure the rocket used in the video (and a lot of other recent combat footage) is a legit PG-7VR. Perhaps smuggled in with Iranian support or something. Hamas seem to have loads of them.

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It's said that they have old and new version of Tandem 85 but could be genuine PG-7VR.

Petrolicious88 said:

It’s common knowledge that they constantly fought each other for territory, resources, slaves, wives. There’s also evidence of occasional mass migration due to social upheaval (war). Many tribes were famous for their warring traditions (Google their names).

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That's is no different them local wars in any part of the world. Still does not justify them be genocided by the white Europeans and their land taken over over time. Similar to Palestinians. And in this day and age it should not be done.

sounds like nothing much was said by nasrallah. i am guessing minor clashes along the lebanese border will continue but hamas is largely left to fend for itself this time.

OTCDebunker said:

Honestly, I get the feeling that we are about to hear bad news for the Palestinians.

I can't help but feel why they would schedule such a public announcement if they were going to actually enter the war. If they were going to join wouldn't you just launch a surprise attack of some kind and be done with it?

That way you can maximize the damage you can do when the enemy is off guard and you have the element of surprise.

But if you're plan was to enter the war and you first decide to say "hey dudebros! We're going to attack you like pretty soon so you should get nice and ready and prepare yourselves so that our attack will be less effective than it otherwise would've been." how does that make any sense?

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What you said is true.
It is bad news for the Palestinians but good news for Lebanese. Lebanon is in a state of economic collapse, the currency has been devalued 100-fold, most of the people's life-savings have been wiped out completely, and the political scene is a total shitshow (the seat of the president has been empty for more than a year now). The only thing keeping the country together is remittance from the Lebanese diaspora. The last thing they need is getting dragged into a war with Israel.

Admin of Lebanese news and updates tg channel pretty much nailed the content of Nasrallah's speech ...

The speech tomorrow by his Eminence, will lay the foundation of the upcoming events in Gaza and Lebanon.

The speech will neither be empty slogans to satisfy some people's excitement and neither will it a call for war out of arrogance.

The speech will lay the rules of engagement in Lebanon and then explain Hezbullah's trajectory in this conflict.

And it's quite important for many to understand, his Eminence will not just give away the plans on TV. He will simply light the path.

Before Hezbullah joined Syria, his Eminence explained the war and explained the need. And likewise, Hezbullah will explain to its people and justify any possible loss in life and material if the need arises.

Tomorrow's speech will play a key role in explanation, but will more importantly only tackle what needs to be tackled.

Militaries don't win wars on TV or plan in public.

_____________________

/CIG/ analysis of Nasrallah's speech

Nasrallah's Speech was exactly as expected by the admin:
— No hasty or baseless declarations, nothing like muh formalized declaration of war (like the here love)
— The Speech was specifically aimed at paving the ideological, historical and legal vision of the conflict ("Why do we fight?") from the point of view of the Axis of Resistance
— The same implicitly solidified the course of action on the part of the Yellow Team against Israel, a gradual and exponentially escalation related to the actions of Israel and its Western allies in the region.
— Nasrallah openly notified what Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance are going to do in relation to information warfare and the diplomatic field (financial boycotts, civil mobilization campaigns across the Islamic world, etc.)
— It also noted the course of action taken by the group since October 8, noting that Hezbollah is already involved in the War in Gaza, regardless of the intensity of the actions.
— Established a clear Red Line (which is rarely ignored by the Lebanese) towards the conflict in Gaza and at the same time linked to the intervention of the Lebanese Group

One should note that:
— All Axis of Resistance groups are notoriously acting together, each one according to their respective capabilities
— A Direct Intervention as dreamed by dozens here and abroad is directly correlated to the intensity of the Siege of Gaza

This conflict is a catch22 for the US. If they get involved and the conflict spreads they might be tied to the middle east for the foreseeable future.

If they stay their distance it raise doubts in countries in East Asia of US resolve to support them in a conflict with China, because Israel is not Ukraine to the US.