Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member

The picture shows:
  • glass in the windows within 100m from the crater
  • leaves on the trees within 20-30m
  • light vehicles almost unaffected by the blast almost at the point of detonation
  • undamaged EV panels
  • minimal disruption of roof tiles
  • etc
There is also no crater caused by impact-fuzed detonation. A bomb travelling at 600km/h has sufficient kinetic energy to bury itself in the ground before the fuze works.

This wasn't a HE detonation of a general purpose aerial bomb of mass 500lb and above. HE detonation is so fast that it creates a uniform spherical overpressure front with equal distribution of energy on its surface that disperses over range. This was a much smaller blast of a low-grade improvised general explosive.

None of the cars around has its body damaged by pressure blast but all caught fire to flammable elements like tires so there was sufficient heat. This is what a propellant does when it burns up uncontrollably.

The difference between HE and propellant is in time of combustion. HE needs to combust "explosively" i.e. almost instantly otherwise the energy of the pressure front will dissipate before a shockwave is formed. Propellant needs to combust fast enough to create kinetic energy but not fast enough that it can't be directed by either a barrel or an exhaust.

This picture looks exactly what a low-tech missile used by Hamas or Islamic Jihad would do if it failed shortly after launch, fell to the ground where warhead is detonated and the rest of the propellant burns up. And that is IDFs official explanation. This picture matches what should be expected in such case.

There is also no way such explosion could have killed or even wounded 500 people. The people in hospistals are inside the hospital.

Even direct hit from a HE bomb would have to be very lucky to cause so many casualties. Hospitals - even in places such as Gaza - are designed to higher standards than regular residential buildings. Among those standards one of the most important one is fire protection which requires specific fire resistance to structural elements. That resistance comes with physical properties sufficient for blast resistance as well. Hospitals are highest threat category for occupants so they are always sturdy buildings with good protections compared to all other buildings in any jurisdiction. Residential buildings, including multi-storey apartment buildings are on the lowest rung, second only to single family dwellings which often don't meet any safety requirements at all and are subject to separate or simpler rules.

You can't judge the quality of a hospital based on the quality of general construction in the area. The details are invisible to the eye - they're in quality of materials, size of reinforcement of concrete structures etc. The same geometrical structural element made with lower class concrete and minimal reinforcement will break when hit by a blast from a 500lb bomb and withstand a 2000lb with just slight upgrade to concrete and steel density. Explosion craters can differ in size simply because of the density of the substrate under low or high category road. etc.

One of the reasons why Hamas regularly uses hospitals and schools and other public mass occupancy buildings is because of their quality both in terms of structural strength as functional space arrangement, multiple evacuation routes etc. Buildings which are designed to handle large masses of vulnerable people in a crisis - like all healthcare or education facilities - are really good for hiding militants in combat.

All in all it was a last-minute low-effort lie directed at useful idiots to cause uproar before Biden's visit. They're not even particularly interested in how it performs. They depended on you being so stupid as to argue its validity even after it completely loses all plausibility. This way you end up being the problem, and not the people who started the lie.

Useful idiocy is a story as old as time. The story of the psychopath always winning against the narcissist because the narcissist never thinks he isn't the smartest, bestest, most virtuousest, and all-around greatest person in the world. So how could someone use him as if he was just a regular idiot? That's impossible! You're the idiot!

A wise man will make a mistake once, but a fool will never make a mistake.

Also this:
View attachment 120215

This doesn't look like reddit. At. All.

Have fun kids.
I think this is a valid hypothesis, given very limited evidence thus far. I agree that there is no evidence of blast damage in that particular photo.

I am skeptical that what we see is consistent enough with a propellant burn up: the fire damage is quite limited: none of the foliage seems affected. Only the cars and the spaces immediately adjacent to them show burn damage. I find it difficult to comprehend how this could be a scene where 500 people were killed.

Alternatively, it could have been a cluster munition. Those would cause no blast damage and cause burn damage only to flammable objects like vehicle fuel tanks, which is what we see in that photo.

However, we need more photographic evidence before making conclusions. The reports I read spoke of a direct hit to the hospital building itself causing the ceiling of an operating room to collapse.
 
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drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
this is a sad event but i am actually laughing now at how much of a shatshow this has become.

the pictures show damages that are unlikely have been caused by a 500lb JDAM. of course smaller ordnance like SDB or airburst still not ruled out, but based on the picture, it cannot be ruled out that it was a rocket.

at the same time, israel has been acting suuuuuper guilty since the event had taken place. lets have a look:
1. their official online rep tweeted that they bombed a hospital, then promptly deleted it, i am guessing once they have agreed on a "story"
2. reports of IDF responding "well we told you to evacuate", again can be taken as admission of guilt
3. IDF changed their story so many times, at first it was a hamas rocket, then it was an intercepted rocket from PIJ and the debris landed on a pile of hamas ammo, now it was a rocket failure.
4. israel came out with this recording, which is so obviously fake...
why act this guilty if its not you? at a minimum, it seems like the PR team does not trust the IDF and is trying to win the PR battle on their own.
 

generalmeng

New Member
Registered Member
Regarding bomb types, someone on Zhihu made a conjecture that cannot be ignored:

It has JDMA's squealing sound, low fragmentation and low building damage characteristics. It is unclear whether the Israeli Air Force is equipped with this type of bomb.

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View attachment 120233
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I mean, bomb fragments do not just disappear. when they find some fragments, we will know who is behind this bombing.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I mean, bomb fragments do not just disappear. when they find some fragments, we will know who is behind this bombing.
You can have all the bomb fragments you want. The Israelis will just claim Hamas collected the fragments from elsewhere in Gaza and planted them at the hospital.

They will deny this for as long as they possibly can to try and let the anger and outage boil off before admitting they did it. Then the next stage of the playbook kicks in.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can have all the bomb fragments you want. The Israelis will just claim Hamas collected the fragments from elsewhere in Gaza and planted them at the hospital.

They will deny this for as long as they possibly can to try and let the anger and outage boil off before admitting they did it. Then the next stage of the playbook kicks in.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Just like with some incidents which Americans gleefully bragged about orchestrating, what matters here is not the incident itself, but what people believe about it.

And now the shoe is on the other foot. As long as the story spreads, American credibility will take a large hit.

So I can't say what the other posters mean when they "like" something, but this is my reason at least.
No, who bombed the hospital matters. We know Israel is capable and have bombed hospitals in the past. But if Hamas did it then they don’t deserve the support of the Palestinians and Arab world.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Hezbullah released footage of its attack on Israeli soldiers using guided weapons on 17 October 2023, killing and injuring soldiers.

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___________

Saudi Arabia calls on its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.

I could see them funding Hezbollah with Iran to mess things up but Lebanon is so destroyed already... it's just infliging more disaster on another population.
 
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