I think this is a valid hypothesis, given very limited evidence thus far. I agree that there is no evidence of blast damage in that particular photo.
The picture shows:
There is also no crater caused by impact-fuzed detonation. A bomb travelling at 600km/h has sufficient kinetic energy to bury itself in the ground before the fuze works.
- glass in the windows within 100m from the crater
- leaves on the trees within 20-30m
- light vehicles almost unaffected by the blast almost at the point of detonation
- undamaged EV panels
- minimal disruption of roof tiles
- etc
This wasn't a HE detonation of a general purpose aerial bomb of mass 500lb and above. HE detonation is so fast that it creates a uniform spherical overpressure front with equal distribution of energy on its surface that disperses over range. This was a much smaller blast of a low-grade improvised general explosive.
None of the cars around has its body damaged by pressure blast but all caught fire to flammable elements like tires so there was sufficient heat. This is what a propellant does when it burns up uncontrollably.
The difference between HE and propellant is in time of combustion. HE needs to combust "explosively" i.e. almost instantly otherwise the energy of the pressure front will dissipate before a shockwave is formed. Propellant needs to combust fast enough to create kinetic energy but not fast enough that it can't be directed by either a barrel or an exhaust.
This picture looks exactly what a low-tech missile used by Hamas or Islamic Jihad would do if it failed shortly after launch, fell to the ground where warhead is detonated and the rest of the propellant burns up. And that is IDFs official explanation. This picture matches what should be expected in such case.
There is also no way such explosion could have killed or even wounded 500 people. The people in hospistals are inside the hospital.
Even direct hit from a HE bomb would have to be very lucky to cause so many casualties. Hospitals - even in places such as Gaza - are designed to higher standards than regular residential buildings. Among those standards one of the most important one is fire protection which requires specific fire resistance to structural elements. That resistance comes with physical properties sufficient for blast resistance as well. Hospitals are highest threat category for occupants so they are always sturdy buildings with good protections compared to all other buildings in any jurisdiction. Residential buildings, including multi-storey apartment buildings are on the lowest rung, second only to single family dwellings which often don't meet any safety requirements at all and are subject to separate or simpler rules.
You can't judge the quality of a hospital based on the quality of general construction in the area. The details are invisible to the eye - they're in quality of materials, size of reinforcement of concrete structures etc. The same geometrical structural element made with lower class concrete and minimal reinforcement will break when hit by a blast from a 500lb bomb and withstand a 2000lb with just slight upgrade to concrete and steel density. Explosion craters can differ in size simply because of the density of the substrate under low or high category road. etc.
One of the reasons why Hamas regularly uses hospitals and schools and other public mass occupancy buildings is because of their quality both in terms of structural strength as functional space arrangement, multiple evacuation routes etc. Buildings which are designed to handle large masses of vulnerable people in a crisis - like all healthcare or education facilities - are really good for hiding militants in combat.
All in all it was a last-minute low-effort lie directed at useful idiots to cause uproar before Biden's visit. They're not even particularly interested in how it performs. They depended on you being so stupid as to argue its validity even after it completely loses all plausibility. This way you end up being the problem, and not the people who started the lie.
Useful idiocy is a story as old as time. The story of the psychopath always winning against the narcissist because the narcissist never thinks he isn't the smartest, bestest, most virtuousest, and all-around greatest person in the world. So how could someone use him as if he was just a regular idiot? That's impossible! You're the idiot!
A wise man will make a mistake once, but a fool will never make a mistake.
Also this:
View attachment 120215
This doesn't look like reddit. At. All.
Have fun kids.
I am skeptical that what we see is consistent enough with a propellant burn up: the fire damage is quite limited: none of the foliage seems affected. Only the cars and the spaces immediately adjacent to them show burn damage. I find it difficult to comprehend how this could be a scene where 500 people were killed.
Alternatively, it could have been a cluster munition. Those would cause no blast damage and cause burn damage only to flammable objects like vehicle fuel tanks, which is what we see in that photo.
However, we need more photographic evidence before making conclusions. The reports I read spoke of a direct hit to the hospital building itself causing the ceiling of an operating room to collapse.
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