Israel attacks Gaza Strip

isthvan

Tailgunner
VIP Professional
utelore said:
I predict that If there is a Israel invasion of southern lebanon you will see a MAJOR battle in and around the city of "Sour". This is a fairly dense urban area on the coast with lots of foliage. I would say that Lebanon army special forces and tank units with the help of Hezbollah will be able to put up a pretty good fight from that city with the use of ATGW. I would also imagine you would see several hundred Iranian R-guard also hold up in the city. I think Israel would lose around 50 KIA with 200 WIA on the low end in the taking of the city which is a must because the city is used for the launching of long range rockets. THIS IS GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING FROM A MILITARY ANYLYST ASPECT....cheers ute.

PS isthvan if you look at the news clips the way Israel is stacking armoured coloms on roads near lebanon I think this is going to happen very soon

Ute I agree that in case of invasion of southern Lebanon we will see quite intense fighting and that IDF will suffer casualties… They are going against well prepared and equipped opponent but while Hezbollah can slow down IDF possible offensive they can’t stand long in open battle whit IDF. As for Lebanese army tank units( M-48 and T-55 tanks) they don’t stand chance against Israeli armored units especially whit air superiority Israelis have…
As for armored forces along border they are one of the signs of possible invasion (joust as destruction of road infrastructure in Lebanon is even better sign) but that still don’t mean that they will invade… IDF also stationed armored units along Gaza boarder but that don’t necessary mean that they will invade Gaza. They are preparing for possible invasion and shoving force in meantime, and if they invade they will occupy buffer zone in south and that’s it… This is naturally joust my humble opinion and we will see in next few weeks what will they really do.

Also here is ORBAT of Lebanese Armed Forces:

Total active manpower: 52,000
Para-military: About 10,000 Internal security troops

Land forces
Personnel: About 45,000
Structure:
11 Mech Inf Bdes
1 Republican Guard Bde with 2 Inf Bns, Spt Bn
1 Commando Reg
5 SF Regs
1 Air mobile Reg
1 Naval commando Reg
2 Arty Regs

equipment:
MBTs: 218 T-54/55, 92 M48A5
APCs: 1,073 M113, 73 VABs
Arty: 141 pieces, 105, 122, 130, and 155mm. 43 120mm mortars
ATGW: TOW, Milan
AAA: 131 pieces 20, 23, 30mm

Navy
7 patrol boats
25 combat support boats
2 landing craft.

Air Force
1 FGA sqn with 5 hunter F70s. (grounded)
6 Helo sqns with total of,
24 UH-1H,
7 ALOUETTE II/III,
7 AB-212,
5 Gazelles
5 SA-330L Puma (grounded)
 

utelore

Junior Member
VIP Professional
Sturat Ramsey from skyy news is reporting that the city "sour" aka "tyre" is being fortified as we speak with paramilitary units laying mines and setting up what appears to be roadside bombs and IEDs. He thinks that IF israel tank units come this far they will take massive losses from the IED and RPG fire. I think israel will have to go to Sour to stop the rocket fire on its city. So yea Crazy I think you could see a stalingrad type of fight however I think through the use of line charges and advances in Urban tank fighting in the citys they will not take more than 300 total KIA and WIA in the contest for that city.
 

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
The problem in urban warfare involving tanks is that the defending force for the past decade didn't have access to advanced anti-tank missiles (noticebly the Iraqi insurgents who lack such sophisticated equipment). The Chechens did score a historical victory against the Russians, but that was because of Russian incompetence.

This fighting may well see the first use of heavy anti-tank missiles by a guerilla army this decade. It will be a very interesting battle as the HJ-8 and Kornets E have ranges of 3,000-5,500 meters. And after the Israelis capture the city, what then? How long are they going to stay in Lebanon? Because the longer they stay, the more resistance they will face. And this ain't gonna be Gaza resistance either. This is Hezbullah we're talking about...
 

utelore

Junior Member
VIP Professional
The largest use of ATGW systems was in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. I don't think the amount used will be that much in this upcoming fight. Also you have to understand the Armour is much better now than then. Also the Israeli have heavier and safer for the crew AFV than the U.S. I can tell you that ATGW are being used in Iraq not on a scale seen in 73 but they still used them. The biggest problem the Iraqi's had was the lack of batteries to power these systems once the batteries went bad for the TIS sites.

I think this will end with the defeat of Hizbullah and the marginalization of Syria in the middle east. If Hizbullah looses the south of lebanon and a NATO force moves into Lebanon things will improve. Next up IRAN....cheers ute.
 

Roger604

Senior Member
utelore said:
The largest use of ATGW systems was in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. I don't think the amount used will be that much in this upcoming fight. Also you have to understand the Armour is much better now than then. Also the Israeli have heavier and safer for the crew AFV than the U.S. I can tell you that ATGW are being used in Iraq not on a scale seen in 73 but they still used them. The biggest problem the Iraqi's had was the lack of batteries to power these systems once the batteries went bad for the TIS sites.

I think this will end with the defeat of Hizbullah and the marginalization of Syria in the middle east. If Hizbullah looses the south of lebanon and a NATO force moves into Lebanon things will improve. Next up IRAN....cheers ute.

Didn't I recall you repeating over and over again..... "never underestimate the OPFOR." :confused:

I think we're going to in for some real surprises before this is all over. Hezbollah has prevailed before over Israel..... so Israel is the underdog. It just amazes me how cavalierly Israel is treating its own soldiers by rushing into Hezbollah's trap in a full frontal assault.
 

utelore

Junior Member
VIP Professional
I am not sure why you think I am underestimating Hizbullah because I am not. I am just stating some facts. The fact is that current Armour being used by Israel is the heaviest and safest on the planet and can defeat most ATGW. As for other military tactics that hizbollah has in wait for Israel is also a fact and a issue that will cause problems for the IDF. I would disagree that Israel is being cavalierly in its upcoming military operation but on the contrary it is prepping the battlefield and is making painstaking attention to detail to defeat the OPFOR. I think we will see some individual battlefield surprises by the Lebanese army and Hezbollah However it is a simple fact that this OPFOR will not be able to defeat, stop or cause MAJOR military problems for one of the greatest armoured forces on the planet. none the less it will be entertaining for us armchair generals....cheers ute.
 

Roger604

Senior Member
It has begun.

I am not so optimistic that I think this thing will end with just a little border operation to push back Hezbollah. This is going to be at least a full on invasion of Beirut.

I think the odds are that Syria will make their move, probably a surprise attack soon. Iran will probably fire a few missiles.

Both Syria and Iran are eerily quiet about this whole thing.

Israeli troops take control of Lebanese village
22/07/2006 - 09:20:52

Israeli troops took control of a village just across the Lebanese border today, after the area was pounded by bombs and artillery through the night.

Several Israeli soldiers – backed by artillery and tank fire – moved into the large village of Maroun al-Ras on the Lebanese side of the border, military officials said.

Afterwards, as some of them returned, officials said the village was under Israeli control.

At one point in the fighting, a half-ton bomb was dropped on a Hezbollah outpost, about 500 meters from the border and near the village.

The raid was part of Israel’s wider strategy of running a “limited” ground operation aimed at destroying Hezbollah’s tunnels, hideouts and weapons stashes in south Lebanon.

Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israeli towns from north of the Lebanese border, killing 16 civilians and forcing hundreds of thousands of Israelis to repeatedly flee into bunkers.

Today, rockets struck Karmiel and Kiriyat Shemona, injuring seven people.

Air raid sirens also sounded in Haifa, Israel’s third-largest city, along with smaller towns.

After Maroun al-Ras was taken, several small groups of Israeli soldiers in armoured personal carriers travelled to and from the village, but there was no large scale movement. The army did not say what sort of resistance troops encountered.

In Marwahin, also along the border, Israeli troops recovered anti-tank missiles, a launcher, and other weapons used by Hezbollah.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced plans to visit the Middle East on Sunday, her first trip to the region since the crisis erupted 10 days ago – even as she ruled out a quick cease-fire as a “false promise”.

An official from the UN monitoring force in south Lebanon said that between 300 and 500 troops are believed to be in the western sector of the border, backed by as many as 30 tanks – a likely precursor to a larger ground force that Israel could use to sweep Hezbollah out of the area.

Israel’s goal is not to create a buffer zone as it did during its occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000, said a senior military official.

Rather, Israel wants to weaken Hezbollah to make it easier for the Lebanese army to move into areas previously controlled by the guerrillas, possibly with the aid of a beefed up international peacekeeping force, the official said.

On Friday, Israel knocked out a key bridge on the road to Syria and pummelled Hezbollah positions in the south as long lines of tanks and armoured personnel carriers lined up at the border – in some places close enough to see Lebanese homes on the other side.

Rice was headed to Rome for meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the Palestinian president and US allies, before heading to the Middle East.

Ships lined up at Beirut’s port as a massive evacuation effort to pull out foreigners picked up speed.
France, the United Nations and Red Cross painted a dire portrait of life for civilians trapped in the south or forced to flee their homes there. They demanded Israel open humanitarian corridors to allow life’s necessities - shelter, food, water and medicine – to reach the swelling numbers of displaced people – an estimated half-million.

Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz said French aid would be allowed into Lebanon’s port of Sidon.

The Lebanese health ministry reported 362 deaths in Lebanon so far in the onslaught, n increase of 55 since it release figures on Thursday. Thirty-four Israelis also have been killed, including 18 soldiers and an air force officer killed Friday in the collision of two helicopters.

Beirut was swelling with refugees from the south – and from its own Shiite southern neighbourhoods, heavily hit by Israeli strikes. They piled up by the hundreds in parks and schools – those with money enough staying in hotels.

But after 10 days, Beirutis – inured by past wars – were emerging more and more from their homes, fed up with staying indoors even as the conflict looked ready to escalate. More shops on central Hamra Street were open, and in the evening families, including many southern refugees, were strolling along the seafront, kids roller-blading, young men smoking waterpipes.

An Israeli ground incursion, however, could dramatically increase the pain in Lebanon. More than 400,000 people live south of the Litani River, north of which Israel wants to push Hezbollah. Though tens of thousands have left, many are believed still there, trapped because roads were damaged by Israeli bombs or afraid of being caught in the airstrikes on thoroughfares.

Now they were likely to be in the crossfire as Israeli troops cross the border.

Israel’s army chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, said the military would conduct “limited ground operations as much as needed in order to harm the terror that harms us” – leaving it unclear how deep and how powerful the Israeli punch into Lebanon would be. Israel on Friday called up several thousand reservists to free up regular troops for duty in the north.

“We will fight terror wherever it is because if we do not fight it, it will fight us. If we don’t reach it, it will reach us,” he told a nationally televised news conference.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
That article said that they recovered several anti tank missles and launchers. Ute was right, Hezbollah does have AtGMs. Not that anyone doubted that anyway.

The reason that Iran and Syria are "eerily quiet" is because they want to save themselves. They do not want to get involved in this war, especially Syria. Syria is only concerned with the Assad reigeme's survival. So they will probably try to aid Hezbollah if a real guerilla war starts, but they will not take Israel on in a conventional war. Iran is less predictable, but it has kept quiet in the last couple of days so I don't think that they will overtly aid Hezbollah. Just like the "rich" Arab nations, Iran and Syria only help the Palestinains and those truly threatened by Israel becuase it serves them, not because they want "justice" for the Palestinians.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Finn McCool said:
They do not want to get involved in this war.
Not with substantial US military on both of their flanks...along with Israel.

That said, this is what a rational leader would believe and act accordingly. I am not sure we can afford or give to the leader of Iran that distinction.

Perhaps plans have been laid to await just such a provocation and let Israel draw Iran into a fly trap...where if they react overtly, their military infrastructure, and particularly their nuclear program can be laid waste by the US and Israel with good cause, without the trouble of waiting on the UN to agree on something substantive.

Just a thought.
 

maglomanic

Junior Member
Jeff Head said:
Perhaps plans have been laid to await just such a provocation and let Israel draw Iran into a fly trap...where if they react overtly, their military infrastructure, and particularly their nuclear program can be laid waste by the US and Israel with good cause, without the trouble of waiting on the UN to agree on something substantive.

Just a thought.

In chronological order the provocation seems to be coming from Iran. To me they are the ones who r deciding what comes next. Atleast so far.
 
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